After action report "The Great Bobian War"

[Arrian]

That would make a certain amount of sense, but if that was the thinking, I feel it's flawed. See, a GS presence on Bob wasn't enough to really provide us with much benifit. We needed a good chunk of land, and we needed a palace/FP move, which essentially meant a leader. We're not militaristic. The one leader we got in the Voxian war was an astounding stroke of luck, and unlikely to be repeated. Even if we took the land, got the leader and moved the palace, we'd still need to hold it and develop it (terrain improvements, new cities, etc) - not an easy task, since if those things had come to pass, I'd expect all teams aside from RP to unite against us to prevent us from running away with the game. Trying to build up a second core while under fire would have been very hard.

Too many things had to go our way for there to be a realistic shot of GS becoming a superpower. Our lead at the start of the Bobian war was a momentary thing, resulting from our GA, which was by then done. The other contenders hadn't had theirs yet, and had larger empires.

On the other hand, GoW & ND had a much more realistic chance of acheiving superpower status via conquest of RP & a redistribution of the continent. A FP/Palace move down south for GoW was possible from a leader, and since GoW is militaristic and a big war was brewing, that seemed like a reasonable possibility.

ND had an even better chance of building up the south, even before they got their leader, because with a rushed courthouse, good development and WLTKD, a FP build wouldn't take that long.

In short, I think people greatly overestimated GS's chances. We always viewed our foray onto Bob as a longshot taken out of necessity. I'm not surprised at the outcome, though I do wish we had done several things differently which may have mitigated our defeat, or even possibly created a stalemate (unlikely, though, given GoW's completion of Leos).

-Arrian

[GhengisFarbâ„¢]

The way I see it, what hurt GS is the fact that were so secretive. Your strategy and assement is sound with your information. The other teams didn't have it though. You kept all the rest of us in the dark and we had to guess how much land you had and what your capibilites were.

They were obviously more than enough to win the game because you wouldn't let us know about them. You obviously had more production than any of us could ever dream of having because you were cranking out Wonders like Workers.

You did such a good job of keeping us in the dark and puffing yourselves up that you became one of the number one threats in most of the other team's strategy sessions.

Later when the info came out you weren't near as scary as we had thought, but by then the die was cast.

[Panzer32]

Ghengis, have you looked for that 4 city invasion turn plan yet?

[GhengisFarbâ„¢]

Uh, I forgot.

[Cort Haus]

The real victors of the war, of course, didn't lose a single hitpoint.

[Darekill]

I think War is not necesaryli a good way to win a great human DG scenario.
Something that enlightens me, because the whole game suports warlike gamestyle.
Still there is a good chance to win peacefully.

[Arrian]

They were obviously more than enough to win the game because you wouldn't let us know about them. You obviously had more production than any of us could ever dream of having because you were cranking out Wonders like Workers.

You created this image of our power in your mind. Clearly, as we held on to our map for as long as we could TO HIDE OUR WEAKNESS, you had no conflicting information to go on. Our GA boost further obscured our weakness. I can see how it happened.

However, having said that, we WERE up-front about our needs. We layed out the tile-count thing for you guys. We told you, flat-out, that we had nowhere near enough land to compete in the late-game, and therefore wanted more territory. So, other than hanging on to our map, which saved us when Vox attacked, we were as open as one can be. It was probably a mistake not to trade our map immediately upon Vox's departure, though.

Cranking out wonders like workers? We lost the race to the Pyramids and settled for the Lighthouse. We built the Colossus (200 shields, perfect for a coastal nation such as ours). We rushed Sun Tzu with a leader - that had nothing to do with production. The Great Wall is hardly a key wonder. That about covers it, IIRC.

-Arrian

[vondrack]

I have been staying out of this discussion mostly for reasons mentioned by Arnelos (i.e. a lot of what would be most interesting to disclose is still classified, waiting for the game to be over).

But I feel that we (Lego) sort of owe an explanation to GS. At least from the we're-all-a-bunch-of-friends-anyway perspective.

So, I will give it a try... I just really hope I am not going to stirr things as bad as my posts of this kind tend to usually...

1) Believe it or not, when the war broke out, Lego did not consider siding with GoW/ND at first. Despite our less than stellar relations with RP, we reluctantly started discussing how to "reasonably" help RP (intra-team)... I mean, we did see them as one of our top rivals potential-wise, had poor relations & little trade with them (not blaming anyone, simply stating the facts here). Despite that, we understood 2 on 1, especially with those two being in their GA, was hopeless - and would end up in RP dead, which we did not like all that much (we did prefer a 3-civ Bob at that time). So, in the beginning, we were inclined to side with RP, albeit being less than happy about it (there was little to gain by helping them, but a rather fragile "balance of power" on Bob - with three civs, there would hardly be any "true" balance ever).

2) As someone else correctly mentioned earlier in this thread, we had almost no offensive forces of our own. Most of our troops were GA-sensitive mercs. Not sure if I recall that correctly, but I believe we had 6 knights at most, maybe even less. Plus, we did not have a navy large enough to quickly shuffle forces across the sea (2-3 galleys, I believe, less than optimally deployed). So, it was not really about helping RP militarily - but we did consider gold and techs. However, this has never materialized because of later events.

3) I believe two treaties had a major impact on how things later developed. The first was never signed - it was kind of a mutual protection pact discussed between us and RP. The negotiations failed, IIRC, because of Lego was not willing to exchange world maps as part of the treaty (not that we would have been all that eager to sign the pact in the first place... but the map thing buried it for us). This was very, very long ago.

Then, (much) later on (but still waaaay before the war), we signed a treaty with ND as a result of a surprise visit of their scout appearing 2 tiles deep in Southern Legos. We wanted this scout gone at almost all costs (again, it was about the map of our interior, which was and still is considered top secret), so we offered a fine deal to see him leave peacefully - a war was the very last thing we needed at that time. To our delight, ND not only agreed, but proposed a treaty guaranteeing both parties would never land their unit on "the other" landmass. If this was already planning for the war, then it was smart of ND - we had no idea what exactly and if anything was going to happen on Bob, but it was clear ND did not want us to become involved, in any case. Well, we did not want to become involved anyway... so we happily signed it.

4) When the war broke out, things got messy. Like a bolt out of blue, we're offered some western RP cities. Wording of our treaty with ND aside, it was very clear we'd have broken at least its spirit - entering the war against GoW/ND on RP's side. We saw that as a pretty bad deal - we would have gained two enemies, while hardly gaining an ally... (no offense meant - but as stated before, there was little love/trust between us and RP), while being unable to make any difference in the short run. And in the long run... even if the war was won or not lost in the end, we had no interest in cities on Bob (unlike GS). So, we refused the cities, honouring the treaty with ND and "staying out of trouble" (or so it seemed at that moment).

One thing we did not know was that RP offered their eastern cities to GS (or was that offer made only after we refused to get involved in this way?). Had we known that, we might have decided differently, hoping GoW & ND might have called their attack off completely, seeing RP backed by two strong teams... dunno. But we somehow assumed GS would help RP in the same way we were thinking of - gold, techs, luxes. That was rather foolish on our part, I admit. We should have seen that GS got their golden chance to expand onto Bob.

5) Once GS accepted RP's cities, the situation changed dramatically (from our PoV). It was no longer about RP being driven off Bob or not. It became about GS getting a solid foothold on Bob or not.

We were aware (not sure if fully) how much superior GS's economy was. And guessed how much superior their military was. And we were fully aware of the GoW and ND economy strength (their GA output figures were hardly matching our non-GA output). We saw it as very likely GS/RP would eventually overwhelm GoW/ND. If it was to happen in this war or in a later war... that was not important. From our PoV it was like this:

a) GS "lands" casualty-free on Bob
b) GS & RP fight GoW & ND, not losing the war
c) sooner or later, GS musters an overwhelming force and takes (most of) Bob, leaving us to, ummm, "happily build our asses off" on Legos, not having to care...

So... looking at it from this perspective, we saw we'd have to help GoW/ND sooner or later, unless we were content to lose the game. Well, we decided it would be better to do that sooner.

6) At that moment (1 or 2 turns into the war), we made our crucial decision and answered an urgent call for help from GoW (which seemed to be wavering at that time). After being briefed on the GoW/ND plans, we decided we'd rather put up with a suboptimal 2-civ GS-free Bob setup (a 3-civ GS-free setup would've been preferred, but did not seem achievable) than let GS prepare a fine beachhead for a later invasion and conquering of Bob (well, yes, we might have been overestimating GS, but their victory over Vox was so impressive that we did not really think we were "panicking"... it seemed inevitable, especially considering how elite players are believed to win their SP games - mostly by domination; plus - if that little modest land GS got for starters allowed them to race ahead of everybody else, what was to be expected from them with another chunk of the same size on Bob...?).

Letting GoW and ND split Bob between themselves was simply "less unacceptable" in the long-term perspective. PLUS, and this was very important at least for me - it seemed we could have achieved this goal actively by getting involved (even if to a pretty limited extent only), rather than just sitting on the sidelines, hoping others would duke it out themselves.

7) So it was decided that we would ally with GoW and ND against GS. And it was decided that we'd commit as much as we were able to, as fast as we were able to. Legoland Expeditionary Forces (LEF) set sail on the very turn following our crucial negotiations with GoW/ND. They were feeble to ridiculous at that time - but it was all we were able to contribute with. We arranged a joint tech research, we changed our build schedules, slipping in much more military... and hoped we'd not arrive too late...

At this moment, I would like to note that we did not want to get involved in the destruction of RP, at least not directly (read below). We made this very clear to GoW/ND, agreeing to commit our own troops only to the defense of their homeland territories. I fully acknowledge, though, that pretending Lego "did not enter the war against RP" would be ridiculous. Yes, we helped to free GoW/ND's hands. However, from our PoV, it was an inevitable side-effect of our decision to oppose the GS expansion onto Bob.

From the very beginning, we put a lot of emphasis on keeping our alliance secret - it was obvious that as long as GS were planning for one opponent less, we had the element of surprise on our side. As RP kept calling for help (I honestly say that the last chat with Arnelos really hurt - from the personal PoV... as I had to tell him things I knew were very cruel... sorry for that, Arnelos), it was impossible to maintain the "neutral stance cover" for too long. In the end, it was mostly about keeping our military presence on Bob secret.

8) And yes... at a certain moment, it became obvious that GoW/ND were clearly winning and RP/GS had very little to no hope of turning the tide (with no saltpeter). Our help was no longer really needed... I believe the cheap and fast gunpowder research we did for GoW/ND allowed them to raise quite a lot of extra riders & ansars... while still benefitting from the muskets (and generally, from knowing about the saltpeter deposits).
But we haven't considered a backstab or even withdrawal at any time, as... as... well, first, as we are not really heavy into backstabbing... and second, as we would pretty much lose all of the non-tangible, trust-related gains - remaining true to our alliance through the uncertain times till the victorious end was always considered a better (the only, in fact) option.

It might be we misjudged the balance of power and GS was much less of a threat than we believed, even with some extra territory on Bob... but that we shall never find out...

GS, RP - on a personal level: sorry for what happened. From another (individual) PBEM game of mine, I know how it feels to see one's meticulously crafted plans or a tidy, happily developing empire to collapse. Honestly, I have come close to believing that PBEM, and especially DGs with the insane amount of work contributed by their players, are simply not my cup of tea. Crushing the AI is somehow... more enjoyable, I would say. Crushing humans is not much fun, unless I'm able to consider them a true enemy (which I'm not). Crushing a friend or friends brings me little joy, knowing how much efforts must have been wasted for the defeated party... It's only slightly better than getting crushed, knowing how much efforts I wasted myself, actually...

Well, as others mentioned before... I am looking forward to the game being over, too.

[GhengisFarbâ„¢]

Originally posted by Arrian
However, having said that, we WERE up-front about our needs. We layed out the tile-count thing for you guys. We told you, flat-out, that we had nowhere near enough land to compete in the late-game, and therefore wanted more territory.

After the Roleplay fiasco we no longer believed that kind of rubbish, Roleplay used the same tactic only their tile counts and info was false. They kind of jaded us against you so to speak.

Originally posted by Arrian
Cranking out wonders like workers? We lost the race to the Pyramids and settled for the Lighthouse. We built the Colossus (200 shields, perfect for a coastal nation such as ours). We rushed Sun Tzu with a leader - that had nothing to do with production. The Great Wall is hardly a key wonder. That about covers it, IIRC.

We weren't there, all we saw was Wonder, end turn, Wonder, end turn, Wonder...............

If anything, I've learned from this that honesty and straight forwardness is a good policy in multi-team demogames. Roleplay tried to trick and manipulate us and it just drove ND and GoW together.

GoW and ND were pretty open about their positions and as confirmations happened it made each team more trustworthy in the eyes of the other.

Not that I'm saying Roleplay members are bad people, they tried a tactic to gain more that their share and once the tactic was found out it caused resentment in the other teams. They just weren't able to overcome that later.

[Master Zen]

I would just like to second vondrack's and other's assessments of GS. To be honest we thought it was a monster especially after their defeat of Vox and coming up with an army larger than any of us could hope for.

(oh and Trip didn't help much, gloating in the ISDG about how mighty and efficient GS was)

When we got GS's map I was amazed at just how efficient the city placement and tile improvement was. Given this, how could we NOT overestimate GS? And when we saw how many knights kept arriving on Bob, we knew we were up against the nightmare of all armies. It was not a reassuring thought.

[Arrian]

Good post, Vondrack. GS never had any doubt about Lego's motivations, and hold no personal grudges or any silliness like that. You're out to win, as everyone is, and you gotta do what you gotta do.

I *do* think you guys overestimated us, perhaps by a large margin. On the other hand, like I said before, I don't think that's going to matter. I think we delayed ND & GoW enough (for you to win). But since that's a long way off, obviously it's just guesswork.

Ghengis: Yeah, but did we complete wonders that really matter? Sun Tzu, maybe, but that's gotta be 3rd place among the big three (Sun Tzu, Sistine, Leos). The Lighthouse was key for us, being an island nation, but honestly who else (besides maybe Lego?) even wanted it? The Colossus anyone could have built (though I'm very pleased we got it, it's one of my personal favorites). And the GW is about to be made obselete by metallurgy. Getting the leader for Sun Tzu, IIRC, was public knowledge shortly after it happened.

Eh, doesn't matter now anyway. Your perception was what it was, even if I might think it odd.

-Arrian

[GhengisFarbâ„¢]

Originally posted by Arrian
Ghengis: Yeah, but did we complete wonders that really matter? Sun Tzu, maybe, but that's gotta be 3rd place among the big three (Sun Tzu, Sistine, Leos).
-Arrian

That's the point, you obviously has so much overproduction you had overflow to build virtually every wonder available regardless of whether it was useful or not.

[vmxa1]

First of all I want to thank all the posters for the background. I found it very enjoyable to read.
I would also agree it does not seem like fun to beat or lose to people that you sort of consider as friends.
This type of game needs to be against strangers or with people that you realy have a close relationship with. Some one that you know will be able to realize it was just a game, if you have to decieve them.

The other thing that strikes me is how much the luck of the draw plays in a game like this. It is not like so very cold, where you can out play the AI. People can and will make mistakes, but they will none the less play intelligently. Making it hard to over come any significant handicap.

For someone that does not even like to make deals with the AI, the effort put into these games is very daunting. The skill of the players on these teams is so high, here is very little room for error.

[badams52]

As an outsider, I would like to thank all of you for declassifying information about the recent Bobian war. It has been a very interesting and informative read that can be carried over to other DGs and PBEMs as well.

[ZargonX]

As an insider, I also appreciate the teams coming and discussing the issue involved with the Bobian War. I would also appreciate it you would continue to declassify information, including, but not limited to, troops movements, production plans, and future goals.

/me gets his notepad...