After action report "The Great Bobian War"

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Arnelos
The problem, as we saw it, was that Legoland's leadership seemed to have gone into tunnel-vision concerning the wisdom of allowing GoW and ND to take over all of Bob. Our goal was thus to do everything in our power, throw every argument we could, just be downright annoying if need be, to convince at least one or two Legolanders of folly of helping the GoW-ND alliance achieve victory over all of Bob. Our goal was then to use those individuals to argue our case inside Legoland and back them up with as many conciliatory gestures as we could possibly make to Legoland. At least in my estimation, the outcome of the war and RP's survival on Bob was going to be made or broken based upon whether Legoland switched sides.

This is one last thing I'd like to comment. It was not our leadership (ZargonX was the Prez at that time, me was something else, not sure what it was... prolly the FAM), it was the whole Lego team. There was a discussion about switching sides after discovering gunpowder and learning about the distribution of saltpeter, but the idea of switching sides was discarded shortly after being posted as a "just to make sure we realize everything what we could theoretically do" idea.

[Hot_Enamel]

Originally posted by Arnelos


Actually, I *WAS* around for that, that's when I was still active on RP. As I've mentioned probably too many times out here, Togas was quite nearly deposed by RP Team for that diplomatic debacle. A number of people were upset at him for, in our opinions, messing that up by getting into that (as Unorothodox called it) pissing match with GhengisFarb.

In the end, Togas decided that he would not conduct negotiations with Glory of War personally any longer, adaMada would be our representative, and when the fact that Ninot had been plotting to overthrow Togas was revealed and we had a show trial of Ninot, people rallied back around Togas again.

Point is, I'd say that most of RP Team knew the stupid warrior incident was a huge mistake at the time it was made and said as much. Ninot was, as I recall, particularly harsh on the issue. He was also right.

Ooops...it was Bigfree who was not around at the time.
Sorry about that.

And yep.. I know you have already posted what was going on within RP.


You posted 3 examples by three teams, (GoW, GS, & Lego) who probably did not stick within the spirit of some agreements they made. I just wanted to throw in an RP one as well. For no other reason but to show that we all have been guilty of it to some degree.

[Cort Haus]

Ah, Gunpowder.

We never knew we were holding an SP deposit all that time. We were desperate to cling on for those last few turns till we discovered Gunpowder.

We had another settler (two, in fact - they're on one of the screenies above), poised to build cities on those hills near where we lost the first. We had been long hoping to build a stronghold there - not knowing about the resource.

In the end we approached one of the 'Trojka' and said "if you assure us that we're not holding any SP, we'll leave now", knowing how it would look in a few turns if we were misinformed. We were told we weren't holding any SP so we left.

[Aeson]

Our involvement in The Great Bobian War was driven by exactly this in mind - to prevent someone from getting too big.

That's why I said you were in the same boat, because that was GS' goal too. GS fully expected Lego to side with ND and GoW if GS and RP started gaining much ground, so it does come as a pretty big suprise to me that they instead sided with the winners... who were the ones going to get the biggest obviously.

The thing I think Lego must not have considered is how close ND and GoW are. GS and RP probably would be viewed as 'in bed' now, kinda like Lego and Vox. Certainly ND and GoW seem that way. Who's the biggest? Not even close... Bob.

But I believe it was quite logical that other teams tried to help their chances to win the game by denying GS more land.

GS and RP, if successful in that war (in a reasonably possible outcome), was going to be smaller than ND and/or GoW are each going to be splitting Bob. Certainly long term GS could have expanded on Bob through other wars, but so could have any other team. Basically by the time of Gunpowder things were just going to shut down in this war from an offensive standpoint. (assuming both sides had Saltpeter, which it looks like they would have if GS had been winning or holding ground)

But even with land parity, GS would still be at a disadvantage vs. Lego, because of having to fight two or three wars to gain that land (while Lego might have stayed out of them completely).

The thing is, as long as GS was at around 400 tiles, it had enough land to basically get to the corruption threshhold. After that, the usefulness of cities is much less, so the jump from 400 tiles to Lego's 550 (think that's what it is after subtracting Vox) isn't as lopsided as it seems. Probably a difference of 5-10% overall production and commerce (Palace/FP placement of course becomes key).

Also, given a few smaller teams on equal footing, they all have a shot at winning by hitting the giant together. A smaller team can help, but will still be behind whoever they are helping once things work out.

This reasoning made us believe you would rather attempt a domination victory through conquering Bob than trying to outbuild everyone else after getting even in land.

Another funny thing is you can't get a domination victory with Estonia and Bob... even with little Bob.

[UnOrthOdOx]

Originally posted by Arnelos


It wasn't so much an issue of the value of med inf versus knights, it was that no-one, not even GS, would sell us Chivalry!

So the reason we had no knights at the start of the war was because EVERYONE refused to sell it to us. That's how we knew the hammer was coming, more than anything else.

How many HORSES did you even have, 1?

I only ever saw one. It didn't seem like you guys ever even began to prepare for a mobile force.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx

How many HORSES did you even have, 1?

I only ever saw one. It didn't seem like you guys ever even began to prepare for a mobile force.

True, true. Both myself and Astrologix (the SMC's of the appropriate era) whined and whined about not enough builds going to the military, but it fell on deaf ears.

I knew we were walking a dangerous line with two civs getting 3-move UU's at the same time, but the team seemed confident that our diplomacy could neutralize the threat.

We were also supposed to build a navy that could protect the western coast from incursions along the coast or southward. Obviously that did not happen either.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Aeson
That's why I said you were in the same boat, because that was GS' goal too. GS fully expected Lego to side with ND and GoW if GS and RP started gaining much ground, so it does come as a pretty big suprise to me that they instead sided with the winners... who were the ones going to get the biggest obviously.

Keep in mind that I was talking about the moment when the war has been young... 2 or 3 turns into the war. At that time, nobody was really winning or losing yet. It was all about estimates and educated guesses. We felt the long-term threat of you taking Bob was bigger in our eyes than GoW or ND becoming too dominant on Bob (we put up with the fact that the war would eventually end up with them splitting Bob, becoming quite powerful). Frankly, I was surprised by how short and decisive the war eventually was... we expected a much longer one, with the final victory being waaaay more difficult to secure.

I have already admitted it's difficult to tell whether we were right or not about the significance of all potential threats... but as Arrian correctly said - it no longer really matters... our perception of the world at that time lead us to take the side we took.

Originally posted by Aeson
The thing I think Lego must not have considered is how close ND and GoW are. GS and RP probably would be viewed as 'in bed' now, kinda like Lego and Vox. Certainly ND and GoW seem that way. Who's the biggest? Not even close... Bob.

We have a pretty good idea of how close GoW & ND are, trust me.

Originally posted by Aeson
Another funny thing is you can't get a domination victory with Estonia and Bob... even with little Bob.

Frankly, we've never checked that (counting the tiles), I believe... but I have already heard this, so I assume it is true. OTOH, Lego could not really hope to hold against anyone conquering the whole or most of Bob & Stormia. It would be only a matter of time. Or so we believe(d).

[Donegeal]

Our involvement in The Great Bobian War was driven by exactly this in mind - to prevent someone from getting too big.

Originally posted by Aeson
That's why I said you were in the same boat, because that was GS' goal too. GS fully expected Lego to side with ND and GoW if GS and RP started gaining much ground, so it does come as a pretty big suprise to me that they instead sided with the winners... who were the ones going to get the biggest obviously.

The only problem I see with this line of though, Aeson, is that the term "too big" is relative to the team saying it.

From a GS PoV, a 2-civ Bob would make both civs "too big".

From a Lego PoV, a 2-civ Bob only made those two civs closer.

Lego realized that a 3-civ Bob was not going to be kept in a Balance. Two teams would eventually team up against the third. It was ineviatable. A two civ Bob would keep themselves in check, allowing them to continue to be a dominate force. Now the question came "What two civs should be left on Bob?" When the gangbang started, it was very apparent which two it was going to be. When GS interceded on the side of RP, it threw Lego's 2-Civ-balanced-Bob concept out the door. They did what they could to put that idea back in order.

[Arrian]

so, while LEF was far from having any impact on the final outcome of the war, it might have affected how quickly it ended afterwards.

Sure, once we realized Lego was against us too, effectively making it GS+Pamplona versus the world (our attempts at getting Vox to hit GoW from the sea didn't get very far, but hey, we had to at least try), we gave up any hope of actually winning the war. We hadn't much left at that point anyway, but that was the final nail in the coffin for me.

That one hurt. Not because I felt personally betrayed, but because I was honestly shocked by it - it never occurred to me that Lego would back the winners of the war.

As an aside: since I don't chat (I have occasionally for the MZO game, but never here), I think I've missed out on a lot of the diplomatic scheming that went on. I think that probably applies to a lot of GS's membership. It's possible that we may have had fewer diplomatic difficulties it we had done more chatting. Then again, we (correctly) saw chats as very dangerous things from the perspective of giving away information without meaning to. Double-edged sword.

-Arrian

p.s. NYE - our wartime mistakes are not on you. Several people were involved with them. Nathan, IIRC, was still running things when Toledo2 happened. I was around, and didn't see it. Theseus too. Then, after the tide had already turned, I got a slowmover stack of ours slaughtered on the flats SE of the Alamo... it goes on and on. Lots of blame and lots of players to share it. Surprise: we're not perfect.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Incidently, Panzer's screenshots have refreshed my memory a bit:

We obviously did have more knights on Bob at the time of the flanking manuever than I had remembered, but because of the pillaging of RP's road net (such as it was... there wasn't much there), we couldn't bring our knights to bear on their Rider stack. We did finally get 5 in position, but they didn't do well. Even if they had, GoW would have had a minimum of 6 Riders left... enough to gobble up the mostly undefended south.

The city gifting that allowed us to defend RP's cities also reduced the borders and allowed GoW easier movement. That too hurt, but of course the alternative was to leave the cities in RP's hands, and they couldn't have defended them and Pamplona. They just didn't have the troops.

-Arrian

[Aeson]

A two civ Bob would keep themselves in check, allowing them to continue to be a dominate force.

Not really. For practical purposes, Bob is big enough to let 2 civs be each be as productive as Lego (more or less so depending on what Lego's land looks like). Corruption ends up being an equalizer for everyone who can reach that limit. Then factor in that those 2 civs would also be allies, at least coming out of a 2vs1, if not later. That's why I say a two civ Bob has to screw up not to win it for one of them.

When GS was approached it was obvious that we were viewed as outsiders by both ND and GoW. Not really a good idea for the 3rd wheel to go along and help the other two get stronger. Sooner or later we were going to be the target in the 2 vs 1. So why not take an ally along in RP?

Probably Lego's diplomatic position is stronger, but I still don't see how Lego stands to gain anything by Bob being 2 civs instead of 3. Just seems to narrow their lead in potential to virtually nothing.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by donegeal
Lego realized that a 3-civ Bob was not going to be kept in a Balance. Two teams would eventually team up against the third. It was ineviatable. A two civ Bob would keep themselves in check, allowing them to continue to be a dominate force. Now the question came "What two civs should be left on Bob?" When the gangbang started, it was very apparent which two it was going to be. When GS interceded on the side of RP, it threw Lego's 2-Civ-balanced-Bob concept out the door. They did what they could to put that idea back in order.

That's pretty much correct... just that in the very beginning of the war, we did not really consider a 3-civ (GoW/ND/RP) Bob impossible - hence all our thoughts about supporting RP with gold or techs when the war broke out. Turbulent, unstable, but possible.

After GS stepped in, we realized that this had been just an illusion. If RP were desperate enough to gift several cities to GS, it meant they were not up to stopping the invading hordes, which we thought they had been preparing for all that pre-war time (I recall Togas mentioning at least once how their upkeep costs were a burden... though it might have been mentioned just to lower a price of the deal discussed - but that did not occur to me at that time)... I think we sorta assumed RP would make their front lines near impenetrable, as it was obvious they tried to "cut" the access of the other two civs to the vast territory of the Southern Bob. It shocks me to hear dejon mention RP was neglecting their military, hoping their diplomats would take care of the situation... even when we were offered the eastern cities, I think we perceived that as more of an attempt to draw us into the war than as a sign of weakness (I have just re-read Zargon's chat with Togas and indeed, the idea was presented with no "reasoning" behind other than "we believe that ND will honor their NAP with you, and that our people will be spared").

So, when GS stepped in and we realized how bad things for RP were, it was obvious that whatever the outcome of the war, it would NOT be about a GoW/ND/RP Bob in the long run. GS would be there, too, either replacing RP or establishing a beachhead for a later expansion. We did not like the idea - but I have covered that before.

Originally posted by Aeson
Then factor in that those 2 civs would also be allies, at least coming out of a 2vs1, if not later. That's why I say a two civ Bob has to screw up not to win it for one of them.

Ummm... but for which one? You cannot have two teams winning the game - one of them would have to lose to let the other one win. Which one? And why?

[Cort Haus]

Another factor, Aeson, is the development of land.

Bob has large swathes of jungle, and a mostly-pillaged south. The Industrial civ there is not the one currently in control of the undeveloped land. In fact, we're still waiting for "GoW's half of Bob" to become manifest, but no doubt it will . Both civs have spent their GA and, it is widely expected, are not on a par with Lego on city infrastructure, having focused on military for some time.

By the time Bob is developed, where will Lego be? Vondrack said the war was shorter than he expected, but it may have been long enough for Lego to be comfortably in the production driving seat when oil comes around, and with a sufficient tech lead to enjoy it.

[Arrian]

By the time Bob is developed, where will Lego be? Vondrack said the war was shorter than he expected, but it may have been long enough for Lego to be comfortably in the production driving seat when oil comes around, and with a sufficient tech lead to enjoy it.

Exactly, which is why I figure Lego still has a significant advantage. Not to mention their still-to-come GA.

-Arrian

[Aeson]

If they are allies... the two of them kill off the rest and/or tech ahead and then decide it between themselves... right? That's the "friendly" way of doing it. I just don't see giving your neighbor Iron without being pretty tight. GS at least knows what the plan was going to be after RP...

I'm not saying a 2 civ Bob will win, just that a 2 civ Bob should win. If they don't develop the land efficiently and work together in overcoming any tech disadvantage, they won't of course.

Improving land is actually pretty easy and fast when you know what you are doing. The hardest part is always claiming it.