Lordship of Development

[smacksim]

Because the ruins is, or soon will be, entirely in our territory, this drastically lessens the chance of trolling a worm or of a worm spontaneously developing there. It did just happen, , but it's less likely than in fungus outside of any faction's border, in my experience.

The other question is: Troll with a spore launcher? If it uncovers another spore launcher, they duel, and we could lose a free garrison unit for it. But if it survives such, it becomes a fairly useful military unit for softening up a stack of enemies (Yang comes to mind). Nonetheless, the SL is likely to uncover a mindworm, not capture it, then spend it's time herding the mindworm towards a base with a garrison for destruction/re-capture attempt. This can be distracting and dangerous, even for Gaians. I reccomend trolling with a scout and using the SL as a garrison. If the scout dies, it's replaceable. A scout rover might be even better, and would be upgradeable should a landing force arrive on our shores.

In 10-20 turns, if we don't have social psych, we'll need to be turning away from ICS temporarily. SP's, Probes, and perhaps such a scout rover would be good builds. Probes disbanded for an SP are perfectly legitimate.

What SP? The WP would allow us to pre-form for restriction lifting. The HGP would be best though, allowing us to really ICS like mad. Since we have the space and time to spread out, rather than up, this reccomends learning biogenetics just to build the HGP, besides all it's other benefits. I don't think we should start an SP until we have already built a few probe teams though. Once we start, the AI will be inclined to start, and in this position, might finish before we could rush the project. 5-15 probes, then start.

The AI will be likely to trade social psych (no SP), but is more likely to actually have biogenetics. So we need to decide if we're going to steal or trade exclusively, before we approach a base.

[Chaos Theory]

I'm a big fan of both the HGP and the WP. If I can get either, I'm a happy ICSer. I rarely can get both at a reasonable cost (against a competent opponent). Let's discuss the benefits in the context of the Gaians:

WP:
We will have a decent number of formers, hence multiplying their effectiveness by 1.5 is pretty nice.
We're slow on tech, so the ability to get 4 nutrients early is very nice, and so is the ability to get started on boreholes some turns before restrictions come off.
We will want expensive terraforming, particularly boreholes, even more than most factions, since we don't make much energy

HGP:
If we get this early enough, it allows superior ICSing. Size 2 bases become stable with the addition of a garrison, until the second bureaucracy drone. If we will have many bureaucracy drones, the HGP will be less useful as it does not seem to have its normal effect when a super drone remains.

My opinion: favor the WP.

[smacksim]

I lean heavily in favor of the HGP.

So how concerted an effort should we make? Do you all agree with the probe-disbanding strategy? Should we really stop ICSing?

I'm all for building the HGP. We will need to be very focused and quick about it with Morgan as a competetor. I always pretend to be working on the ME, then switch over when done. Not very sneaky, but it works sometimes. Also, it's good practice to start another SP of the same name before finishing the first. That way noone can 'see' that we're building an SP from the F5 screen or game announcements. I'll repeat though: We do not want to actually start the project until we are nearly ready to finish it with AAs, probes, cash. Probably 8 years on the inside.

[Net Warrior]

It's really to close to call at this point. It depends on our situation just prior to completing the SP I would think. I say we start on the WP ASAP since we can always switch to the HGP later.

I often get the WP in my PBEM's and it's nice, but with ICSing, (something I'm just now trying) I perfer the HGP. To me, the WP is more useful for going vertical and the HGP is more useful for going horizontal.

edit: This game is all about research and I think we get more energy early (when we need it most) from the HGP. Let's get a count of how many borehole friendly bonus squares we have before we decide what to do.

[Net Warrior]

Err...the probe-disbanding strategy? Do we still lose 1/2 of the minerals when disbanding probes?

[smacksim]

Originally posted by Net Warrior
I say we start on the WP ASAP since we can always switch to the HGP later.

What do you say to my suggestion of not starting the project until we are ready to finish it in a turn or two with AAs, probes, or cash?

Cross-post! Ah yeah, we lose 1/2 minerals with probe-disbanding. If you've never tried it though, I highly reccomend it for slow-tech factions/games. It is definately 'worth it' if it means not letting Morgan just buy the SP ahead of us.

[Net Warrior]

Yes, a cross post

The sooner we get started the more we accumulate. Your probe-disband trick should be sufficient to beat the AI to one of them. We don't really have a good SP base right now and I don't see one in the offing. We should get started ASAP and use every trick in the book besides. ....sadly, I really don't like our chances of getting a good SP. Of course start the Merchant Exchange for whatever deception it's worth. I just don't see any advantage in waiting compared to accumulating immediately. Maybe we'll get lucky and a good one will still be available in about 13-14 yrs when we get Ind Auto and reduce our mineral cost. We should try to time it so we complete it that same year.

[Chaos Theory]

Keep in mind that our whole empire's mineral output will be about 13 next turn. If we could focus all this on one base, we'd take 10 turns to make a SP (200 * .9 - 50 for our AA = 130 minerals we need). No one base can make more than 3, or 5 if we allow growth. The rest will come at 1/2 efficiency, so to complete a SP in 15 turns, we need to devote about 7 more minerals from other bases, which represents 2 or 3 other bases, if we have a base producing 5 minerals.

[Net Warrior]

Ok, I just took a closer look and DoG seems like the best candidate base. In 2125 it will have 11 minerals and can switch production to Merchant Exchange. When it grows in 2129 it will have 20 minerals and 5 per turn from there on. In 15 turns from now, 2139, it will have 75 minerals. This is approximately when we get to switch to Wealth SE and the cost of the SP goes from 200 to 180. Subtract the AA and the cost is 130. Subtract our 75 and we’ll need 55 minerals to complete the SP next turn.

CT, I think I’m basically re-stating what you just said but when you look at it this way, all we’ll need is a combination of EC’s and disbands that is not totally out of reach. Maybe we’ll find another AA or get a windfall of EC’s with a pod pop. Just one probe brings the total needed down to 42. With a little luck we’ll make it.

Anyway, I don’t see how waiting improves our position.

[smacksim]

Waiting serves 3 purposes (o.k., 5 purposes):

1. Time to build a rec commons or other useful infrastructure (not that this applies to us at the moment, but in general, why not make the SP base as efficient as possible before starting?) The time is not wasted. It allows us to build probes for disbanding in other bases to fight off the chance that someone else will see our plan and rush the project.

2. If things go sour, the SP base has a few more turns to make shorter production runs and switches without major penalty.

3. Surprise. If we start and finish the WP or HGP in 2 turns or so, it's really unlikely that the enemy will be able to scramble to beat us to the punch. This is especially true after infiltration.

4. As I said before, the starting of an SP triggers the AI to start some SPs. With Yang and Zak, I fear they would finish the projects before us, let alone the other humans. Since no other faction has started, it would be suicidal for us to start what we cannot finish.

5. The loss of minerals by not starting immediately is negligable compared to the advantages above, especially for the cheaper early projects, which can be built in a single turn if we are lucky/smart about it.

IMO, having a base actually just build a project from scratch is asking for trouble against experienced PBEMers. It must be rushed, and decisively. There is some chance that we could have ours hanging in the wind if other factions jump the gun. Any of the early projects are worth their weight in gold. But let's not chance it. Let's attack it.

It's kinda pathetic how few minerals we are producing (thanks for the maths, both of you). Nonetheless, 15 turns spent building probes will guarantee us one of the early projects. The only bad part is that this makes us a target

[Chaos Theory]

Some corrections/notes are in order:

Originally posted by Net Warrior
Ok, I just took a closer look and DoG seems like the best candidate base. In 2125 it will have 11 minerals and can switch production to Merchant Exchange. When it grows in 2129 it will have 20 minerals

If it has 11 minerals in 2125, and is making 3/turn, it should have 22 in 2129, accounting for losing 1 in 2125 when switching.

and 5 per turn from there on. In 15 turns from now, 2139, it will have 75 minerals.

72, but close enough

This is approximately when we get to switch to Wealth SE and the cost of the SP goes from 200 to 180.

If we have Wealth in 15 years (which seems somewhat optimistic), the cost will go from 180 to 160. Remember, we're already running planned.

Subtract the AA and the cost is 130. Subtract our 75 and we’ll need 55 minerals to complete the SP next turn.

160 - AA = 110
110 - 72 accumulated = 38
38 - 5 that turn = 33
Each probe disbanded at +1 industry yields 13 minerals, at a cost of 27. Each probe gimp (probe-1-1) yields 9 minerals, at a cost of 18. In any case, we have an effective cost of 66 imported minerals/132 energy.

CT, I think I’m basically re-stating what you just said but when you look at it this way, all we’ll need is a combination of EC’s and disbands that is not totally out of reach. Maybe we’ll find another AA or get a windfall of EC’s with a pod pop. Just one probe brings the total needed down to 42. With a little luck we’ll make it.

Anyway, I don’t see how waiting improves our position.

If we wait, we know whether or not we'll find an AA or energy credits. Of course, the project might be built by then.

[Chaos Theory]

Originally posted by smacksim
It's kinda pathetic how few minerals we are producing (thanks for the maths, both of you). Nonetheless, 15 turns spent building probes will guarantee us one of the early projects. The only bad part is that this makes us a target

I like being a target

[Net Warrior]

OOPs, I forgot about Planned . So that reduces the cost by another 20 EC! Better yet.

[Illuminatus]

I think surprise building the SP is best, since it is very likely that Morgan will get most of SPs anyway, and seeing that we are building a particular SP can alarm them. BTW smacksim stated excellent arguments for that. Plan sounds well . For which SP, both sound nice and can fit well. Negating WP to others will serve well, and increase our development speed significantly. HGP. on the other hand would give us ICS capability and negate it for Morgan, damaging its ICS strategy significantly. Which ever we choose is fine, but I suggest some trickery about it if possible, to hide the true nature of the project we are building. Also, we could borrow money from AIs, if we investigate east in future, which is not likely for now.

[Net Warrior]

Ok, the turn is in and I just took a fast look. The former in DoG should stay put to heal afer killing the MW and gaining us 10 EC's. Complete the scout there for defence + police in 5 turns. Move the spore launcher to GL...I still can't believe the base is undefended. Build new base, Lily of the Valley, and build a scout there for defence. Leave slider at 50-50 and research in 7 but down to 6 when solar panel comes on line next year and DoG grows in 5th year. Great turn advantage with the new base! Let's prepare the next base site and have the base planted on it's 2nd move. Rush CP at FT in 2 turns (I believe). We're earning 6 EC's per turn now. Foil should make landfall next turn. Only the foil/rover, and the MW will do all the exploring for now.