SCENARIO: Modern World (In Progress! Nitpickers needed!)

[Luk]

Well... the PPP numbers are very often not correct, and it is the number from the sky... As for Russia I could agree that PPP number of spendings to their army are good method of counting the real spendings, because most opf technology are produced in Russia, I could not agree with Chinesee spendings based on PPP beacuse big part of weaponry, spearparts etc. they import from other countries (Russia, Israel, Europe) and in international relations the real worth of currency is important.

Well, as for T-55... Chinas versions of T-55 does not match with Russian newest modification - T-55AM2PBK, which has improved ERA systems, ARENA, new thermal sights, and of course better armour (Russians always sell to other countries worser versions of their products). T-55AM2PBK is in "production" (modification) from late 90s, and it is the best modification in the world

Well, I think you lived in rather big city, rather then chinese village where over 2/3 o people lives, and this people dont see any economic growth.

China will never be a superpower, they will be alwyas regional powers, because of their culture, which is not expansionist, and not atractive to other peoples, the economy will always be dependient on Western Countries economies, and because they as people are not expansionist.

For the army... it will be controlled peacefully by American Giant

And real economic power of China in times of globalisation is a real GDP, which is... little over 1000 bln dollars

[Luk]

And I have to mention that in todays world only US could be superpower and... Europe... for 10-20 years when it Unite and federalize. Why?? Because only this two Federations have will to be superpowers and... have a superior and atractive cultures to all people around the world.

[Roman]

Originally posted by Luk
Well... the PPP numbers are very often not correct, and it is the number from the sky... As for Russia I could agree that PPP number of spendings to their army are good method of counting the real spendings, because most opf technology are produced in Russia, I could not agree with Chinesee spendings based on PPP beacuse big part of weaponry, spearparts etc. they import from other countries (Russia, Israel, Europe) and in international relations the real worth of currency is important.

Yes, the figure for China is probably the least certain of all of them, but not only due to international transactions... It is also uncertain because they hide so much of their spending elsewhere. Just for your information their official nominal spending is just over 20 Billion USD.

Well, as for T-55... Chinas versions of T-55 does not match with Russian newest modification - T-55AM2PBK, which has improved ERA systems, ARENA, new thermal sights, and of course better armour (Russians always sell to other countries worser versions of their products). T-55AM2PBK is in "production" (modification) from late 90s, and it is the best modification in the world

Ok, I have not hear of that modification before, but if you are correct and it has ARENA, etc.... than it is indeed better than the Chinese ones. I am surprised that Russians still bother to upgrade those old tanks.

Well, I think you lived in rather big city, rather then chinese village where over 2/3 o people lives, and this people dont see any economic growth.

Yes, I usually stayed in big cities, but I naturally did travel to the countryside. BTW: China is now over 40% urbanized and that is a hell of a lot of people in cities! Yes it is mostly the cities that are growing fast, but they still contain huge amounts of people (over 500 million now), so their economy is definitely improving.

China will never be a superpower, they will be alwyas regional powers, because of their culture, which is not expansionist, and not atractive to other peoples, the economy will always be dependient on Western Countries economies, and because they as people are not expansionist.

These are all bold statements with little to back them up. Whether China will or will not attempt expansion cannot be known in advance. During much of their history, the Chinese were contented with collecting tribute from their vassal nations, but there were periods when they were aggressive. For example, they conquered Vietnam... During the latter half of the 20th century, China also certainly was not a paragon of calm - it picked fights with nearly all of its neighbours.

China also had a massive cultural influence on most of East Asia, so to say that her culture is not attractive to other people is highly misleading. The part about being always economically dependent on Western countries is manifestly false - soon it may be the other way around. Of course, dependence goes both ways... but what makes you so sure that China will be the more dependent one?

One thing I am almost certain about - China WILL become a superpower.

And real economic power of China in times of globalisation is a real GDP, which is... little over 1000 bln dollars

Chinese nominal GDP is 1547.2 billion USD (Source - Economist Intelligence Unit) and that is including Hong Kong, which is now part of China, but it excludes Taiwan for obvious reasons. China's PPP GDP is 5740 Billion USD.

In any case, why are we talking about China instead of the scenario?

[Yahweh Sabaoth]

No one country has ever "ruled the world," but China is mixing economic growth similar to 1940s-1960s America with an increasingly large technological base and VERY popular aid programs to various nations abroad that resent the bungling of the "American Giant." This puts China in a very good position to become the "superpower of the future".

China has had much suffering in its thousands of years of history, but at times it far eclipsed anything Europe had to offer in terms of culture, science, trade, and military hegemony. It is not a nation to be trifled with, and it has every bit as much potential as America. Just look at the size of the country alone!

It has been referred to as a "superpower" by geopoliticians since the 1970s. Why should it not be a superpower TODAY, as it moves from the 3rd world to the 2nd and from a grossly overinflated military state to an efficient war machine?

True, the military is giant in China (#1 employer), but a lot of military manpower fills posts like museum curators, sanitation workers, etc. China need only modernize it's combat troops, not the bulk of the People's Liberation Army!

As for glorious Russia, it is feeling the strains of the "Sinoization" of Siberia right now... estimates vary, but by 2010 many people agree that the Russian Far East will be filled with 1 million ethnic Chinese, and that is just the beginning.

South Korea now looks to China as it's largest trading partner! South Korea is traditionally an American "colony," so what does this tell us about the invincibility of America, with its "superior culture", and the superpower potentiality of "foolish atheist" China?

[Luk]

Heh... Chinas GDP according to World Bank data in 2001 was 1.15 bln dollars excluding Hong Kong

As I said, China is gonna be a regional Superpower, because they can influence other countries in Asia (but not all, India and many other are not gonna be influenced never), but it can not be a world superpower, because their culture is not atractive to people from another parts of world. Euro-atlantic culture is now a world culture, and even China will be influenced by our mighty culture. All achievments in every case will be based on European-American culture and civilization. China has no possibility to influence any other country from outside Asia, and even they could not influence all Asia... World superpower is a country which can controle in economic, and cultural, and social way people from all world, and it is only possible for Europeans and Americans (now Americans). China will be a strong country, but highly influenced by American nad European culture with a strong economic connections.

I think that China will be dependent economically, as Western Countries will be dependant too, but in smaller rate. Both sides will have profits from that, and World superpowers will give China the right to become regional superpower. And of course Western countries will easly balance between India, and Russia to keep in clash China.

But think in that way... Could Chinese culture influence people from Europe, America, Africa, Australia etc? No... And what culture dominate China now? Our mighty Euro-atlantic culture

As I said the superpower must have the enemy... This enemy must be dangerous for people in superpower, because people in superpower must approve the imperial policy of superpower... And it is great if that enemy is not able to real danger superpower. Now it is Saddam, but after Saddam it will be china. But china will never be a real enemy, only for citizens of superpower.

The real superpower will be Europe, because Europe has everything what is the best. Europe developed all Ideas, the best culture, etc. etc. Europe has all arms to be superpower. More even then America

[Azeem]

"Mighty Euro-atlantic culture"? Europe has the "best culture"? A bit arrogant aren't you.

What makes you think we Chinese people are "inferior"?

In terms of military power, Europe can't even compare to us - the big ol' USA.

While your economy is declining, China's economy is the increasing EVERY year.

Chinese culture is starting to gain A LOT of popularity in America since Chinese arts are becoming more and more popular, ranging from the increasing popularity of Chinese medicines and teas to people getting tattoos of Chinese writings. Far East religion is also becoming more popular in the West. I already know several Caucasians who are Buddhists and seem to be more satisfied with their choice to follow Buddhism.

[Luk]

Well, it is the fact, that Europe developed everything, and the ideas of beuty, art etc. is based on European culture, and civilization. We gaved to the World almost all things. Now of course America is the representant of Euro-atlantic culture, but of course it is because of European disintegrity.

I do not agree that European economy is declining, or economical sources are lying European economy is growing slow, that is right, but because we are rich. And you should know that Eastern-Central European countries which will join EU will add the moblity to European growth, because we are rather poor.

GDP of European Union in PPP is the biggest in the world

In military we are weak only because we are not united, but when we unite, Europe will became the first Superpower. But even now, we have best tanks, very good aircrafts, IFVs, helos, and ships. Europe has a potential which has no other country in the World

Chinese culture has a popularity Buhahaha.... Well, your examples are silly, tatoos and chinese medicines Great... I know that some people are under influence of Moon Sect, Kriszna etc... But you can not say it is a influcence by big "I". We, Europeans like to meet other cultures and gain from them that what is the best. It is because we are expansionists, and we are open-minded. But this things after this start to be parts of our culture, because we always europeize all cultures and change it under european conditions

And Chinese have very funny language, when I here this, I start to laugh (sorry, I do not want to offend anybody)

China will be for 20-30 years totaly europeized, and will be a one of Western Colnoies, very big colonies

[Azeem]

You know, I am quite offended by your remarks and your blatant arrogance. You call yourself "open-minded" and you insult us!? I'm extremely offended that you insult the culture of my people and my ancestors.

Who are you to say that Europeans are better than we "inferior" Asians, hm?

Now let me ask you something: who invented gunpowder? My ancestors did. Who invented the wheelbarrow? My ancestors did.

And China is being "Westernized" indeed, but the Chinese people are still keeping their traditions. Nor would they ever alow Europeans to completely turn China into one big colony. They made that mistake before, but they're not interested in making that same mistake again.

[Luk]

Im European

I know you invented many things, other cultures, Mayes, Polynesians, Incas, Middle East, Arabs invented many things too, but to we started to use these all things correclty, and we upgrade them, and bring into general use of it. Only because we have better civilization based on individualism, expansionism, and values which other civilizations do not have. We united all knowledge of the world, and use it for our expansions and in result for the better live of all people, even Chinese. People in Chinese, in America, in Europe etc. if they want to live on the good level, they have to accept our culture, our civilization. They of course can cultivate their traditions etc, but in general their prosperity is based on our European Achievments. Santa-Claus, Christmas, ideologies, doctrines of law, society etc.. etc. etc. etc. etc. are the product of our euro-atlanic civilization. And most of Chinese people in China want to live like Europeans, wear Jeans, hear pop music, rock whatever, see the Western films, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. Chinese want to be like Europeans, they want to be Europeans. We propose them something new, and atractive, and they want to have it. I do not recognize any white people who want to be so Chinese, as Chinese want to be so Western (American, or European)

[Azeem]

But that certainly does not mean you are "better" than we are, nor should you ever look at us as "inferior".

[Luk]

Im not better, but civilization is better

[Roman]

I have to say I agree with Yahweh Sabaoth.

Originally posted by Luk
Heh... Chinas GDP according to World Bank data in 2001 was 1.15 bln dollars excluding Hong Kong

Your information is correct for 2001. The Economist Intelligence Unit gives the same number for that year if Hong Kong is excluded. For 2003, however, 1547.2 is the figure they give (including Hong Kong). This shows you just how fast the Chinese economy is growing. The PPP figure, by the way, is for 2001, because I could not find a newer one.

As I said, China is gonna be a regional Superpower, because they can influence other countries in Asia (but not all, India and many other are not gonna be influenced never), but it can not be a world superpower, because their culture is not atractive to people from another parts of world. Euro-atlantic culture is now a world culture, and even China will be influenced by our mighty culture. All achievments in every case will be based on European-American culture and civilization. China has no possibility to influence any other country from outside Asia, and even they could not influence all Asia... World superpower is a country which can controle in economic, and cultural, and social way people from all world, and it is only possible for Europeans and Americans (now Americans). China will be a strong country, but highly influenced by American nad European culture with a strong economic connections.

Chinese culture has been among the most attractive to other people for centuries and will likely be so again in the future. To think that only the West can influence other cultures is arrogant to the extreme. Just look at how much most people from the Middle East 'love' our culture...

I think that China will be dependent economically, as Western Countries will be dependant too, but in smaller rate. Both sides will have profits from that, and World superpowers will give China the right to become regional superpower. And of course Western countries will easly balance between India, and Russia to keep in clash China.

China already is a regional superpower and it is most definitely going to become a global one. Sure, India may become one too, but China has advanced far more down that path.

But think in that way... Could Chinese culture influence people from Europe, America, Africa, Australia etc? No... And what culture dominate China now? Our mighty Euro-atlantic culture

Make no mistake, I like our culture very much, but that does not mean we have to be arrogant about it. Just look at how much resentment against us our culture is causing abroad... Chinese culture could easily become the counterweight to Western culture - it could be an alternative based on less individualism, more belonging to a group, etc.

As I said the superpower must have the enemy... This enemy must be dangerous for people in superpower, because people in superpower must approve the imperial policy of superpower... And it is great if that enemy is not able to real danger superpower. Now it is Saddam, but after Saddam it will be china. But china will never be a real enemy, only for citizens of superpower.

There are plenty of enemies the superpower could find if it wanted to and making China an enemy would be far more dangerous than most, so I do not think you are right - it would not be a logical path to take.

The real superpower will be Europe, because Europe has everything what is the best. Europe developed all Ideas, the best culture, etc. etc. Europe has all arms to be superpower. More even then America

Europe is divided and hence weak. Integration is proceeding, true, but nationalism is resurfacing everywhere and it is by no means clear that the EU will integrate enough to become a unified force on the international scene. Equally important is the fact that Europe engaged in colonialism in the past and that makes it much more difficult for European countries to exert their influence, because if they do so they are immediately accused of neocolonialism. Contrary to what you say European armies are absolutely no match for the US one. As far as economics is concerned, US has a higher GDP than even an expanded EU will have and the US GDP is also growing faster despite the economic slowdown they are having. Europe is already cutting itself off from future technologies too. It has already lost leadership quite some time ago in computer technology and now it is loosing leadership in biotech also, because of various restrictions imposed on moral grounds. To top it off, European population is aging and shrinking - Europe is expected to loose more than 100 million people over the next 50 years even if immigration into Europe is at the rate of 2 million immigrants anually. Europe stands before a demographic crisis, which will make it much more difficult for her to become any kind of superpower.

[Roman]

Originally posted by Luk
Well, it is the fact, that Europe developed everything, and the ideas of beuty, art etc. is based on European culture, and civilization. We gaved to the World almost all things. Now of course America is the representant of Euro-atlantic culture, but of course it is because of European disintegrity.

I am not even going to comment on this, it is just blatantly untrue.

I do not agree that European economy is declining, or economical sources are lying European economy is growing slow, that is right, but because we are rich. And you should know that Eastern-Central European countries which will join EU will add the moblity to European growth, because we are rather poor.

European economy is growing, but very, very slowly. US economy is growing significantly faster EVEN during the current slowdown. Chinese economy is growing at lightning speed!

GDP of European Union in PPP is the biggest in the world

No, this is not true. It was true 10 years ago, but since then, US GDP has overtaken the EU GDP in both nominal and PPP terms. Soon (in less than 10 years), Chinese GDP will also overtake EU GDP in PPP terms, but not in nominal terms.

In military we are weak only because we are not united, but when we unite, Europe will became the first Superpower. But even now, we have best tanks, very good aircrafts, IFVs, helos, and ships. Europe has a potential which has no other country in the World

Europe certainly has much more potential than it is using now, but to say that it has the most potential is a gross exaggeration.

Chinese culture has a popularity Buhahaha.... Well, your examples are silly, tatoos and chinese medicines Great... I know that some people are under influence of Moon Sect, Kriszna etc... But you can not say it is a influcence by big "I". We, Europeans like to meet other cultures and gain from them that what is the best. It is because we are expansionists, and we are open-minded. But this things after this start to be parts of our culture, because we always europeize all cultures and change it under european conditions

Chinese culture is definitely gaining in popularity especially in select areas and I am certain that this may spread to other areas too.

And Chinese have very funny language, when I here this, I start to laugh (sorry, I do not want to offend anybody)

Because of the difficulty of Chinese, English will probably remain the world language, but Chinese will definitely be the second in terms of international usage.

China will be for 20-30 years totaly europeized, and will be a one of Western Colnoies, very big colonies

What makes you think that? Chinese people are not European and do not want to be European. They have their own millenia old civilization with unique and great accomplishments, why should they want to change to another culture? It makes absolutely no sense. It is clear that they will keep their own culture and Europe will keep hers for the most part too, which is the way it should be - it makes for a more interesting world than a homogenous one would be.

[Roman]

Originally posted by Azeem
You know, I am quite offended by your remarks and your blatant arrogance. You call yourself "open-minded" and you insult us!? I'm extremely offended that you insult the culture of my people and my ancestors.

I am not surprised. I would be equally offended if someon made similar remarks about my culture, especially if they were untrue.

Who are you to say that Europeans are better than we "inferior" Asians, hm?

I am not sure whether he was really trying to say that, but it certainly came accross that way. Please Luk, you obviously have little knowledge of China and have probably never been there, so do not insult people whom you know so little about.

Now let me ask you something: who invented gunpowder? My ancestors did. Who invented the wheelbarrow? My ancestors did.

The list could go on: paper, compass, printing press...

And China is being "Westernized" indeed, but the Chinese people are still keeping their traditions. Nor would they ever alow Europeans to completely turn China into one big colony. They made that mistake before, but they're not interested in making that same mistake again.

I don't really think that China is being very Westernized. Sure, Chinese cities now have McDonalds restaurants, etc. but these are by no means representative of Western culture. China is definitely modernising itself, but that is not the same as Westernization - China is keeping its own culture.

As to colonialism, I am sick of my people (Slovaks are obviously European and Europeans are frequently accused of such) being constantly accused of it. Slovakia has never ever had a colony - in fact it was subjugated during most of modern history by the Austro-Hungarian empire. In any case, no region of the world has a clean moral record and all this attention that is concentrating almost solely on European colonization is highly annoying and grossly unfair.
Colonisation did happen and European countries will not be part of it ever again - the world has changed, it would be opposed heavily at home, etc.

[Roman]

As a final note - this debate is leading nowhere. I am convinced that China will become a superpower. In fact, I think it is already a kind of weaker superpower, not yet equal to the USA, though that will change quickly. Luk, you are certain that China will not become a superpower and nothing I say is going to change your mind. I propose that we should get back on topic - designing a scenario.