Is PC gaming doomed? Apolyton 2008 edition

[Asher]

Originally posted by lord of the mark



Apparently theres some disagreement.

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showt...hreadid=176348

I am not at all interested in what the losers in the Civ4 forums think about the game. That is not definitive nor is it relevant or interesting.

Thank you for not continuing this discussion.

[lord of the mark]

Mr Newell at Valve also discounts the NPD data:

"Newell said that in the next three months, its digital revenue from Valve titles will surpass its retail revenue.

"Only now are organizations such as NPD beginning to track alternative revenue streams (MMO subscriptions, etc.) and discovering billions of previously unacknowledged spending on PC gaming," Newell stated.

And many times, industry watchers focus on only the U.S. and U.K. PC gaming markets, Newell said, although customers in major European markets and emerging markets like China, Korea and Russia are almost solely dedicated to PC, leaving consoles by the wayside.

It's not just missing data or information that have created holes in the PC gaming story, according to Newell.

Read one slide during his presentation headed as "Why isn't this story being told?": "As all of you know too well, the three of the major console holders spend millions of dollars each month on PR teams to seed stories to the contrary."

Newell also said that no one is "taking ownership" in spreading the PC story."

[Asher]

Oh, for **** sakes.

We already know the digital revenue is not counted by NPD.

The problem is YOU HAVE NOT PROVIDED ANY REPUTABLE SOURCES WHICH SHOWS THE GROWTH IS POSITIVE OVERALL.

So shut up until you can. Spamming this thread with bull****, PR-hungry PC developers is wasting my time.

SECONDLY. Learn to QUOTE and learn to CITE. What the hell is the date and context for your half-assed quote.

Jesus Christ or Yahweh, whatever. Grr.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Asher
Oh, for **** sakes.

We already know the digital revenue is not counted by NPD.

The problem is YOU HAVE NOT PROVIDED ANY REPUTABLE SOURCES WHICH SHOWS THE GROWTH IS POSITIVE OVERALL.

So shut up until you can. Spamming this thread with bull****, PR-hungry PC developers is wasting my time.

SECONDLY. Learn to QUOTE and learn to CITE. What the hell is the date and context for your half-assed quote.

Jesus Christ or Yahweh, whatever. Grr.

The Newell quote was from the cite in the OP. I thought that was clear.


There IS no data showing the growth is positive overall. The things that NPD leaves out are NOT TRACKED publicly.

Lots of people who know the industry well think the overall growth is positive, and the size of the industry much bigger than the widespread impression.

You can of course decide those things are not important cause they are not yet well measured.

Like this guy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_McNamara

Who was, of course, a brilliant man.

Now, yes, we know NPD data show a decline in PC sales, to less than a Billion dollars in the US in 2007, IIRC.

Do you have anything new on that?

Can we gather some new items?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Asher

So shut up until you can. Spamming this thread with bull****, PR-hungry PC developers is wasting my time.

You really neednt waste your time on it.

[Asher]

Good. Time to bury this thread until you discover substance.

[Sharpe]

Well I just read that in the Aug 2008 PC Gamer, a source indicated that this might be the last wave of consoles as Microsoft and Sony can't afford the losses on the hardware side.

Another article I read recently predicted the same fate for consoles - saying that they thought the future would be some sort of fusion of PC and consoles (which it already is mostly) and that Xbox, PS and Wii would differentiate themselves by offering their games via digital download on exclusive websites instead - perhaps involving a monthly fee to maintain access to be able to play those games.

[Asher]

Well I just read that in the Aug 2008 PC Gamer, a source indicated that this might be the last wave of consoles as Microsoft and Sony can't afford the losses on the hardware side.

Uhh?

The 360 has been turning a profit for a while now, and to say that MS can't afford something is just downright bizarre.

They've already started development effort on the next console as well, and have been hiring people for this effort.

Not to mention that the console growth is just explosive, who in the right mind would LEAVE this market after spending billions to get a foothold in it?

More bull**** from PC "enthusiasts"... this is the stupidest of the stupid though. It just makes no sense on any level. If this truly is in PC Gamer, it should be their last issue.

[Nostromo]

Journalists not doing their jobs. What else is new?

[snoopy369]

I certainly could see a fusion, regardless of the current details. It is after all more efficient to use a PC, if you could get over the problems (too much variety in hardware and software).

I could, for example, imagine a 'graphics card' that is really in effect a mini-console - maybe take two PCIx16 slots and two power connections, have several very powerful chips, and a single manufacturer (ie, Sony, MS) that would produce the card consistently with no variation. Then MS modifies DirectX to accomodate it, and to smooth out as many of the other hardware and software issues as possible.

Then you have the best of both worlds - the advantages of the PC (better input schemes, more flexibility for the developer) and of the console (more powerful dedicated chips and known setup). You can use the CPU alongside the (console-replacing) GPU.

I don't know if this will happen - and certainly not 'soon' anyway - but I certainly think it could be one possible solution.

[Sharpe]

Err it is well known that both MS and Sony are taking a bath on the hardware part of their platforms for both 360 and PS - about a 30% loss on the hardware - and planning on making it up on software profits.

As for the 360 turning a profit for "a while" now, MS only expected to start making money on the 360 gaming division in 2008. I hardly call that "a while"... and admittedly their Q3 financials do show a profit of $614 million in nine months of 2008 for the "Entertainment and Devices" division following a loss of $746 million for the same period in the 2007 year.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Sharpe
Err it is well known that both MS and Sony are taking a bath on the hardware part of their platforms for both 360 and PS - about a 30% loss on the hardware - and planning on making it up on software profits.

As for the 360 turning a profit for "a while" now, MS only expected to start making money on the 360 gaming division in 2008. I hardly call that "a while"... and admittedly their Q3 financials do show a profit of $614 million in nine months of 2008 for the "Entertainment and Devices" division following a loss of $746 million for the same period in the 2007 year.

They've turned a profit for 3 straight quarters, which is a while.

This is still a drop in the bucket monetarily to MS and the Xbox 360 (and subsequent consoles) are very, very important strategically to them.

As I said, the PC Gamer article is bull**** and anyone with a shred of analytical ability should've been able to dismiss it as bull**** immediately.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sharpe
Well I just read that in the Aug 2008 PC Gamer, a source indicated that this might be the last wave of consoles as Microsoft and Sony can't afford the losses on the hardware side.

Another article I read recently predicted the same fate for consoles - saying that they thought the future would be some sort of fusion of PC and consoles (which it already is mostly) and that Xbox, PS and Wii would differentiate themselves by offering their games via digital download on exclusive websites instead - perhaps involving a monthly fee to maintain access to be able to play those games.

Im not sure why they would decide this is the last wave. Clearly they spent a lot of money to get to where they are now, and MS, for example, which is finally making money on every unit sold, has incentive to keep this console generation going, but that hardly translates into wanting to NEVER develpe another console. Ditto for PS3. And Nintendo isnt going to want to end the gen as along as they are selling all they can make. Now that presents OPPORTUNITIES for the PC - if the generation can last to a point where the extra bang developers can get from the tech starts to diminish, and the level of the PC installed base increases. But thats getting to technical issues im not prepared to comment on.

Meanwhile there are lots of other uncertainties.

[FrostyBoy]

Asher is a good wall for bouncing **** off.

[snoopy369]

It's clearly not the last wave - all three major manufacturers have, if not official, largely believed timeframes for replacing their consoles; Wii and X360 successor around 2010, PS4 around 2012 (plus a year for Sony being Sony ).

I wouldn't be surprised if that wave is the last, though, if significant advances in computing continue to be made; and if TVs give way to HTPCs (who knows on that one). I'm not saying I even expect this; but I wouldn't be surprised, either.