Baseball is Here!! MLB 2012!!!!

[Guynemer]

I approve of this hypothesis.

[-Jrabbit]

Tigers are IN the World Series!

Any team sweeping -- no, schooling -- the hated Yankees has earned my fandom. At least for the next couple weeks.

[snoopy369]

Yeah, I think that barring STL paying off the umps again, the Tigers are the champs with very little challenge. SF's starters haven't been at their best, and STL isn't the team it was last year, not to mention the best team in baseball. Since the NLCS is the #3 team facing the #6 team, the AL champ was going to have an easy road either way...

[OzzyKP]

Tigers are IN the World Series!

Any team sweeping -- no, schooling -- the hated Yankees has earned my fandom. At least for the next couple weeks.

Yankees had the lowest post-season (at least 7 games) batting average in MLB history. Tigers allowed the fewest earned runs by their starters in any postseason series. Yankees swept for the first time in thirty years. Wooo!!

World Series bound!!!!!

[OzzyKP]

Yeah, I think that barring STL paying off the umps again, the Tigers are the champs with very little challenge. SF's starters haven't been at their best, and STL isn't the team it was last year, not to mention the best team in baseball. Since the NLCS is the #3 team facing the #6 team, the AL champ was going to have an easy road either way...

Anything can happen in the playoffs. Especially if St. Louis is involved. So who knows. Detroit was heavily favored over the Cards in '06 as well and screwed that up. But I'm liking our chances.

[OzzyKP]

Q: Who owns the New York Yankees in the regular season?
A: The Steinbrenner Family.

Q: Who owns the New York Yankees in the post-season?
A: The Detroit Tigers.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yeah, I think that barring STL paying off the umps again, the Tigers are the champs with very little challenge. SF's starters haven't been at their best, and STL isn't the team it was last year, not to mention the best team in baseball. Since the NLCS is the #3 team facing the #6 team, the AL champ was going to have an easy road either way...

One does not underestimate the Cardinals in the playoffs - especially not in the last decade.

[snoopy369]

This Tigers team is better than 2006 on both sides, except for fielding of course , and this Cards team is worse on both sides. I know, I know, Cardinals, but still. If I were a Tigers fan I'd be booking my trip to Disneyworld.

[Imran Siddiqui]

this Cards team is worse on both sides.

An interesting comment.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2006.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2012.shtml

If one looks at Pythagorean records (the record a team should have based on runs scored and runs allowed), the 2006 Cards should have been 82-79 and the 2012 Cards should have been 93-69.

If you look at the OPS+ of the offenses, the 2006 squad was 97 (yes below average for the league), while the 2012 team is 107. The ERA+ of the pitching staffs? The 2006 Cards were at 98 (yes, against below average) and the 2012 Cards are 104.

Hate to say it, but this team is a better squad than the 2006 team on both sides, especially on offense (2006 had Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds and... no one; 2012 has above average hitters in every position aside from 2B and SS).

[Imran Siddiqui]

Btw, we can do the same analysis for the 2006 and 2012 Tigers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2006.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2012.shtml

Pythag Record:
2006: 95-67
2012: 87-75

OPS+
2006: 99
2012: 104

ERA+
2006: 118
2012: 112

One can say that the 2012 is worse than the 2006, especially in pitching, but it may be more of a push (though we haven't factored in defense).

[OzzyKP]

Yea, the 06 Cards squeaked in to the playoffs improbably (as they do) and won it all (as they do). Nothing is going to be easy this time around, no matter who we face. But I'm ever hopeful.

[snoopy369]

An interesting comment.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2006.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2012.shtml

If one looks at Pythagorean records (the record a team should have based on runs scored and runs allowed), the 2006 Cards should have been 82-79 and the 2012 Cards should have been 93-69.

If you look at the OPS+ of the offenses, the 2006 squad was 97 (yes below average for the league), while the 2012 team is 107. The ERA+ of the pitching staffs? The 2006 Cards were at 98 (yes, against below average) and the 2012 Cards are 104.

Hate to say it, but this team is a better squad than the 2006 team on both sides, especially on offense (2006 had Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds and... no one; 2012 has above average hitters in every position aside from 2B and SS).

2012 also had a great first half from Beltran that sort of cratered, and lost Lance Berkman also. 2012 was a better team in the first half than the second.

I perhaps misremember the pitching from 2006, but I thought it was rather good. 2012 has a couple of huge question marks in injured stars and a bunch of decent pitchers, but not really anyone serious.

This Tigers team performed worse in the regular season than it ought to have, for no obvious reason. They have a very potent offense, combining two major stars with several other very good position players who had off years (Peralta, Avila, for example). Towards the end of the season and in the postseason that seems to have been rectifed. Their pitching is phenomenal, again in particular recently. Three big K pitchers who can pitch shutouts any given game. I realize their regular season stats belie this - but I think they're the anomaly. This team by all rights should've won the Central by 15 games, and the team as is performing in the postseason would have. Two Verlander starts, maybe 3 if the Cards/Giants game goes 6 or 7... you going to bet against that?

[Imran Siddiqui]

2012 also had a great first half from Beltran that sort of cratered, and lost Lance Berkman also. 2012 was a better team in the first half than the second.

I perhaps misremember the pitching from 2006, but I thought it was rather good. 2012 has a couple of huge question marks in injured stars and a bunch of decent pitchers, but not really anyone serious.

As Ozzy pointed out, you really are overrating the 2006 Cardinals. It was quite literally a team that snuck in and arguably one of the worst regular season teams to win a World Series. The pitching in 2006 for the Cards was Chris Carpenter and 4 other guys (and except for Jeff Suppan they all sucked - Wainwright was in the bullpen at the time).

Two Verlander starts, maybe 3 if the Cards/Giants game goes 6 or 7... you going to bet against that?

It's the Cardinals. I'm not betting against them - they've taken the good ole 'mystique' from the Yankees.

[OzzyKP]

Despite the fancy slide-rule stats Imran threw out I do think this year's Tigers are a much better team then 2006. They are better seasoned and more talented then 06. They won less games, sure, and perhaps their stats are less impressive overall, but they have the composure and experience to not fold when it comes time for the big show. Plus, they've learned from their mistakes that year. Leyland has a plan to keep them active over the next week so they don't get out of sync between now and the World Series. Hopefully the plan works. Hopefully Leyland's plan calls for the pitchers all taking fielding practice, heh.

But I can't comment on the Cards, I suspect Imran's analysis is dead on there. There was no reason to expect the 06 Cards to make the playoffs let alone win it all.

Edit: And yes, all the stuff I cited in the 2012 Tiger's favor falls under "intangibles" I know sabermetrics folks love that stuff, heh.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Regardless I expect the World Series to be a good series - though as we all know, the playoffs are a crapshoot, so who knows?