NFL Football - 2012 Season Thread

[MichaeltheGreat]

I think Ben should be nominated as 'Poly Troll #1, and this thread is the proof. Secondly, you guys should all go get 'Duped' stickers and be required to wear them on your forehead for 1 week... myself included.

Naaah - I think he actually believes his stuff. He's too consistent in approach in every subject.

[Al B. Sure!]

Looking at TD/Turnover ratio, RGIII had 20 turnovers to 27 Touchdowns. Luck had 28 of each. That's 74 percent of Luck. Prorating per attempt, Luck did better. Luck threw for a third more attempts, but only turned the ball over a quarter more than RGIII. Therefore on the average play where Luck and RGIII were called to throw or carry, RGIII was more likely than Luck to turn the ball over.

Okay now to the same thing with TD's so RG3 had 27 TDs to Luck's 28. He scored just as many TD's on 2/3rd of Luck's attempts. RG3 > Luck

[MichaeltheGreat]

Not even counting Ben's whacked count of turnovers. RG III had 7 total turnovers, not 20. 5 INT, 2 fumbles lost. Luck had 23. 18 INT, 5 fumbles lost. Oooopsies.

[Al B. Sure!]

MtG, do you have the ROD and CUR for Russell Wilson? I'd be curious to see if he did better than RG3?



Also, the Guardian of all places had a great graphic to show the allocation of the 2012 salary between positions and players on every NFL team:

I set it to the Bears cause we're on Apolyton Chicago Bears site: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/inte...,chicago-bears

Some interesting things:

The Chicago Bears barely spend anything on the offensive line.

The Giants spend the second most of all teams on their defense and are only 24th in offensive spending. This is contrary to what you would think given how shoddy the defense has been.

No team spends more on offense than the Bucs who are 29th in defensive spending. Big ticket items on offense include their guards, of all things (Nicks: $14.8M, Joseph: $9.5M, Zuttah: $3.8M).

The Eagles, despite the Dream Team, were actually among the cheapest teams. 24th in defense, 25th in offense, 29th in special teams, and 28th in total spending. Jeffrey Lurie lives up to his reputation.

The Seattle Seahawks are well-positioned with a very cheap roster (30th in defensive spending, 29th in total spending). Some absolute steals include Russell Wilson ($544K), Richard Sherman ($510K), and Brandon Browner ($348K). The only over-spending the Seahawks did last year was the $7M they gave Zach Miller and Ben Obomanu somehow made $2.16M, probably from some back-loaded contract.

Doesn't seem like any team spends less on RB's than the Jets (all five backs have a combined salary of $2.5M). Hell, you take away Santonio Holmes, Sanchez, and the league's highest paid backup QB in Tebow, and the Jets offense would have only cost $30M! Lots of offensive guys playing at near-minimums.

The Raiders are the cheapest team.

Top 5 in defensive spending (no real surprises here):
Broncos, Giants, Jets, Steelers, Ravens

Bottom 5 (from lowest to 5th lowest):
Raiders, Titans, Seahawks, Bucs, Rams


Top 5 in offensive spending (Titans and Bears? Really?!):
Bucs, Titans, Falcons, Lions, Bears

Bottom 5 in offensive spending:
Colts, Raiders, Bengals, Steelers, Bills

[MichaeltheGreat]

I made those metrics up (who has the bigger ROD, who is more of a CUR? LMFAO, but they're actually pretty good efficiency metrics in terms of the straight up "get the job done" or "fail to get the job done" measurement of a QB.

It would be easy enough to do for Wilson or anyone else.

Those money figures are interesting - good find.

[Al B. Sure!]

Oh I see. I misread it at first. I read X% of scoring drives were TDs as X% of drives resulted in TDs (as in scores/total possessions). Oops.

Seahawks had 67 scoring drives (43 TDs) in 16 games; TD's 64.2% of the time.

Wilson: 10 INTs, 3 fumbles lost = 13 turnovers, 65 punts: 78 CUR in 16 games

Like I thought. The Seahawks offense was at least as good as Washington's.

[SlowwHand]

Raiders are cheap asses.

[Al B. Sure!]

Raiders are cheap asses.

The funny thing is, if we exclude DHB, the Raiders remaining WR and TE corps (9 players!) only cost $4.5M last year, less than Carson Palmer's salary last year. DHB made $8.1M by comparison.

I'm sure everyone knows this but in case Ben starts making silly statements, you can't read too much into a single year's salary just because we don't know how individual contracts are structured. A guy might seem like a bargain at $1M in 2012 but we don't know that he had a $5M bonus in 2011 or has one coming up in 2013 that would dramatically change how we view his value.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Oh I see. I misread it at first. I read X% of scoring drives were TDs as X% of drives resulted in TDs (as in scores/total possessions). Oops.

Seahawks had 67 scoring drives (43 TDs) in 16 games; TD's 64.2% of the time.

Wilson: 10 INTs, 3 fumbles lost = 13 turnovers, 65 punts: 78 CUR in 16 games

Like I thought. The Seahawks offense was at least as good as Washington's.

They're right in there. RG III stats are 15 games - I don't count any stats from games the player isn't in.

The cool part would be to make a strength of schedule adjustment so you could put every QB on an identical footing in a given season. So you'd have to have some offset metrics and adjust each team to their position vis-a-vis league average in the same season, and use that factor to adjust each game, then add the total results. Too much work, though.

[MRT144]

Dude, the seahawks have awesome ROI with defense.

[snoopy369]

Not responding to the troll anymore, as it's pretty dumb to do so... but I will pick a nit in one thing Ben said.

"Fumbles are 50-50"

Actually, no. First off, if they are, then you give RG3 credit for 50% of his fumbles; so he fumbled 12 times, so 6. 6+7=13, so you could argue he had 13 effective turnovers.

However, for QBs, you can't even do that. Different kinds of fumbles are recovered at different rates. This is fairly logical; the most extreme difference is the QB snap fumble, for example. Any fumble on the snap exchange is credited to the QB (even if it's the center's fault). However, most of those are recovered by the QB or someone else on the offense. Center snaps the ball into the QB's chest, QB falls on it. In fact, about three quarters of the time, someone on the offense recovers a snap exchange fumble.

The other major type of fumble often recovered by the offense is a similar fumble; in the link I have below, it is called the 'QB Negative Run'. That's a fancy way of saying the QB loses the handle on the ball in the backfield, but it is not considered a strip-sack (ie, the fumble is not directly caused by a defensive player). A lot of these are probably QB-RB exchange fumbles, and a few are probably QB dropping the ball while attempting to pass. About two thirds of these are recovered by the offense; again, this is logical as it occurs in the backfield, where there are a lot more offensive players who can pick it up.

Running play snaps (including QB positive runs) are about fifty-fifty, and receiver fumbles are even more like 60-40 in favor of the defense (logical, as on midrange to deep receptions there is often one WR and multiple DBs to pick it up).

So to evaluate RG3's fumbles, you'd have to look at _why_ RG3 had 12 fumbles and WAS recovered 10 of them. What kinds of fumbles were they? At least two of them were QB Negative Run fumbles, as there were two occasions where he fumbled during an RB exchange and another member of the team recovered and ran it in for a touchdown (so apparently RG3 needs to fumble more!). If most of his fumbles were snap exchange or QB negative runs, then 3 or 4 fumbles lost is closer to the expectation (so, about what he had). If most of them were on positive running plays or QB sacks, then 6.

I will note that FO's advanced stats (where RG3 is ranked 8th by DVOA) count fumbles this way - they ignore the recovery but consider the rate of recovery for the type of fumble. They do list RG3 having 7 fumbles on running plays, so it looks like about half are one half are the other, though I don't know if QB negative running plays are included in this or not. (Interestingly: Luck is rated significantly higher than Griffin as a runner, despite having way fewer rushing yards. Odd, isn't it?)

Link: http://www.footballperspective.com/t...nsive-fumbles/

[-Jrabbit]

With fractured vertabrae and spinal fusion surgery, it was probably inevitable, but still sad...

The Bears have terminated the contract of WR Johnny Knox this morning.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Sad, yes, but if I'm him I'm just happy I'm breathing and walking at this point. That looked worse than Theismann's leg, and in a far more dangerous spot on the body.

[Ben Kenobi]

I will note that FO's advanced stats (where RG3 is ranked 8th by DVOA) count fumbles this way - they ignore the recovery but consider the rate of recovery for the type of fumble.

Two things here - I'm not making a distinction for fumbles between fumbles lost. And two, I'm also stretching out RGIII's stats to a full 16 game season, which hurts him as well.

[Sava]

Two things here - I'm not making a distinction for fumbles between fumbles lost. And two, I'm also stretching out RGIII's stats to a full 16 game season, which hurts him as well.

You'd seem a lot less retarded if you just admit you are wrong.