Apolyton Fantasy Football

[Jaguar]

Interesting that Brady hits both your Fools Gold and Top 5 QB lists...

People were drafting him a bit behind Rodgers, dead-even with Drew Brees, and almost always ahead of Phillip Rivers. I perceived this to be an overvaluation.

[Jaguar]

Tolbert is a stud. When I pick him up and twice sit him on the bench for crazy days, you know he's a stud.

As for LT's decline period, he's still a solid back.

What are your thoughts on Arizona? I was a big buy on Kolb and Beanie, but once I got Beanie I really didn't need anybody else on the squad.

It's morning again in Glendale. I expect the offense to fall a little bit short of what it was in the final year of Kurt Warner's career. Beanie Wells will look ok again, Fitzgerald will be excellent again, and Kolb will be a perfectly non-descript cog in the machine. "Not Max Hall" was all that Arizona needed to field a decent offense in the weak NFC West. I placed my strongest bets on Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts, who I believe is the 2nd best offensive weapon they have. I don't think Ryan Williams would have been any better than Beanie if he had remained healthy, and he probably would have been worse.

[MRT144]

On Greene: I don't believe in "fool me twice, shame on me." The Jets team composition and schedule difficulty have not changed much since last year, and they should have a solid running game. We had/have a 31/32 year old superstar with three thousand career carries, and a 25/26 year old 3rd-round pick with decent production on his modest number of career carries. The Fantasy Football markets broke in favor of the young guy last time they had this problem, and they were wrong. (I was wrong too.)

The problem hasn't changed, though. We still have a declining superstar and a decent midround pick. The right call is the right call, regardless of what happened in the past. You should be willing to get burned on the right call and then make it again. I am.


On Mathews: It's somewhat the same deal. People hyped him up to near-first-round potential (he might have actually gone in the first in one of our leagues) last year, and once again, the market is afraid of being burned a second time.

They were right to hype him up pretty highly last year. San Diego is a beast offense, and Mathews is one of the rare good RB prospects since the 2008 class. In fact, Mathews was an excellent one. Mathews is 220 lbs and still runs a 4.4! Compare that to Mark Ingram, who is both lighter (215) and much, much slower (4.6).

People saw this and tried to draft him in the 1st and 2nd rounds, and they got burned. Not even that badly, really! He had 800 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs in an injury season. It was a disappointment, but far from evidence that he should suddenly be downgraded to the 81st overall pick (his average draft position.) People are so averse to the visceral reaction when Mike Tolbert "steals" a touchdown from Mathews that they're avoiding Mathews at all costs - to the point of drafting DeAngelo Williams before him! Mathews isn't exactly in the same situation as last year, because we know Tolbert is good as well, but Mathews has more elite talent, and even in a time share he'll make it to 1000 yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs this year. Not bad for the 21st RB taken.

I get that. The thing that separates these two guys from Cedric Benson in terms of being suspect talent that succeeds anyway is that Cedric Benson doesn't have the same amount of tools on his team that these other guys do. I'd argue that they just don't have the innate talent nor the lack of surrounding talent to push them into positions where I'm hyped on them. Would I draft either one of them in the 5th after 2 RBs QB WR? Possibly, but I'd still put them on my don't draft unless you have no better option at RB list. DeAngelo Williams is almost at the same level in my eyes (Severely Overvalued in deep leagues).

After last year's debacle with RBs I am definitely more conservative in my approach to drafting, especially RBs. The biggest risks i've taken this year are Blount, Best, Chris Johnson with no training camp. 1/3 of those risks worked the first week. I traded out of Arian Foster and got Rice and Austin in return.

I'm rambling here but it really does seem that the only places where those two guys are going in the 2nd or 3rd round are leagues where there are 14 players.

[MRT144]

People were drafting him a bit behind Rodgers, dead-even with Drew Brees, and almost always ahead of Phillip Rivers. I perceived this to be an overvaluation.

Since I'm in 7 Leagues this year of varying size and rules I'll need to revisit this at the end of the season to see who the most overvalued and undervalued were by draft position and league rules.

[Al B. Sure!]

Ryan Mathews
Cedric Benson
Daniel Thomas

Pssh... This whole group sucks. Tolbert is the better back, Cedric Benson's problems are obvious and well-documented, and Daniel Thomas apparently isn't **** because the Dolphins gave the starting job to Reggie Bush of all people, tried to bring in Bradshaw, and ended up signing Larry ****ing Johnson to be the #2 back. Yikes.

[MRT144]

You keep dogging on benson but stats don't lie. I would take cedric benson for shonne green every day.

[Jaguar]

Pssh... This whole group sucks. Tolbert is the better back, Cedric Benson's problems are obvious and well-documented, and Daniel Thomas apparently isn't **** because the Dolphins gave the starting job to Reggie Bush of all people, tried to bring in Bradshaw, and ended up signing Larry ****ing Johnson to be the #2 back. Yikes.

My preseason predictions appear to have been wrong on Daniel Thomas. Mathews is still an unknown quantity, but again, I would cite his absolutely ridiculous combine stats to suggest that he's an athletic monster, and that will show when he plays a healthy season.

Benson is a bad running back, but my understanding of the Bengals coaching is that he will be in an uncontested RB1 position, and my understanding of the Bengals opponents* is that they suck donkey balls.



*IND, TEN, JAC, HOU, SF, ARI, STL, SEA, BUF, DEN. The AFC South and the NFC West are incredibly soft, and the AFC North gets to play both of these divisions. That is why I am bullish on every single AFC North team.

[Al B. Sure!]

I've never liked Benson. When Chicago let Thomas Jones go, I knew they were making a huge mistake and Benson sucked, as I predicted.

Yes, Benson had a resurgence a few years back when he first came to Cincinnati but the guy is atrocious. He gets carries as one of the few clear-cut lead backs left but he doesn't do much with them, except against a few key opponents.

Here's a stat courtesy of Matthew Berry:

Since Week 1 in 2010, Cedric Benson has averaged 110 yards a game and 4.7 yards per rush against the Browns. And 64 yards a game and 3.3 yards per carry against every other team.

Yes, I understand he averages over 20 carries a game... I understand he gets the goal-line carries so he's always a good bet for a TD... but he does nothing with his carries. He has a career average 3.8 yards per carry, 3.5 last year, and he rarely catches the ball.

Last year, in my auction league, I lost Ryan Grant but I had a huge amount of success with Charles and Bradshaw, two guys who rarely, if ever, reached 20+ carries, but they averaged huge yards per attempt. I'd rather have an explosive half of a committee any day over the Benson/Mendenhall-type, who is also more prone to injuries due to their workload.

The explosive guys are also harder for defenses to scheme against because they burn defenses that over-pursue and stack the box. You can stuff Benson and Mendenhall easily if you wanted to (or if you don't fear the pass) just by bringing more guys. They already averaged below 4 yards per carry with respectable passing attacks. Let Dalton struggle, defenses bring 8 men in, and Benson won't be even reaching the line of scrimmage.

Plus, Benson plays against the Steelers and Ravens twice each every year. No thanks. Looking at their schedule this year, though, beyond those teams, they do have a fairly sweet schedule. Still.. no thanks.

[Jaguar]

Fantasy football players play 15 games per year, since basically no leagues play week 17. Benson gets a free pass on the Ravens, this year, and only plays them once.

If you take the time to actually look at the Bengals schedule you'll understand why I happily gobbled up AJ Green and Cedric Benson in a few leagues. You listed the two divisional opponents Benson has with great defenses; those are the only great defenses Benson faces all year.

[Al B. Sure!]

Fantasy football players play 15 games per year, since basically no leagues play week 17. Benson gets a free pass on the Ravens, this year, and only plays them once.

If you take the time to actually look at the Bengals schedule you'll understand why I happily gobbled up AJ Green and Cedric Benson in a few leagues. You listed the two divisional opponents Benson has with great defenses; those are the only great defenses Benson faces all year.

I mentioned that, after looking at their schedule, it is sweeter than I thought... still not buying Benson.

I'm aware of the AFC North, Jaguar. In D/ST league, I drafted Big Ben, drafted (but dropped) Massaquoi, drafted Lee Evans, and picked up Antonio Brown

[Al B. Sure!]

Benson plain has no upside. Even if I know he's going to get ~70 yards and maybe a TD every week, I'm never starting him over a Jahvid Best when both are healthy. Yes, with certain fantasy opponents and certain team configurations, it may be good to have a 'safe' Benson to churn out a few consistent points every week, but I usually avoid consensus top-5 RB's so I need my second-tier RB's to be explosive to make up for that.

[Jaguar]

Benson plain has no upside. Even if I know he's going to get ~70 yards and maybe a TD every week, I'm never starting him over a Jahvid Best when both are healthy. Yes, with certain fantasy opponents and certain team configurations, it may be good to have a 'safe' Benson to churn out a few consistent points every week, but I usually avoid consensus top-5 RB's so I need my second-tier RB's to be explosive to make up for that.

Jahvid Best is typically taken 23rd among RBs. Benson is typically taken as the 27th RB. My belief is not that I'd prefer Benson over Best, but that they're relatively close, and Benson is the better value.

[Ben Kenobi]

I had the 40th pick in Poly league, had Benson been available I would have picked him. I still don't get the hype on Best. I passed up on him to trade down and get FJax and Amendola.

Outside of Benson, I passed on all the top level backs in all my drafts. Aside fro MJD and Rice, they've been terrible value this year.

[Al B. Sure!]

Jahvid Best (5'10" 199lbs) is physically capable of being the next Jamaal Charles (5'11" 199lbs) or Chris Johnson (5'11" 191lbs). Obviously that doesn't mean that he will be but with that improving offense and his physical skills, his upside is nearly limitless. Cedric Benson's ceiling is low.

Of course, CJ Spiller (5'11" 197lbs) is of the same physical type and is a counter-point but, specifically, he struggles to run inside and the Bills don't have a good enough offensive line to make his emergence particularly likely. Jahvid Best is in a better circumstance for his breakout.

Not saying it will happen but his ceiling is very high. I'd take Jahvid Best as an upside play over Cedric Benson. Just depends on your risk tolerance.

[Al B. Sure!]

they've been terrible value this year.

We're one game into the season