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  • #91
    Jag, I'm with all the changes.
    We're sorry, the voices in my head are not available at this time. Please try back again soon.

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    • #92
      In the old system, 100yds rushing would get you 10pts (before scores, I think I'm thinking about the right league...)
      If we want to figure efficiency in and still get around 10pts, we might figure an average game would have 15-20 carries.
      So instead of .1pt/yd, maybe .15pt/yd. That yields an extra 5 pts.
      Spread that 5 points over 20 carries, and carries are worth -.25 per.

      So a 100yd game with 10yd/carry = 12.5 points
      A 100 yard game with 30 carries = 7.5 points
      A 50 yard game on 2 carries = 7

      Still dependent upon total yards, but there's actually a reward for efficiency.

      ?
      "In the beginning was the Word. Then came the ******* word processor." -Dan Simmons, Hyperion

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      • #93


        So now people are on my efficiency bandwagon because Jaguar suggested it?

        Although we have to remember we have to work with the tools Yahoo gives us.

        I'm not too sure about expanding this efficiency to runningbacks since, while I understand the desire to reward a guy who gets 50 yards on only 2 carries more than the guy who gets 100 on 30 carries, it still seems odd that twice the production even on 15x the carries nets about the same number of points.

        I don't know. I expanded Koy's example, using his system, to better visualize what sort of performances get what amount of points and how they relate to each other:

        15 carries 150 yards= 18.75
        20 carries 150 yards= 17.5
        25 carries 150 yards= 16.25
        30 carries 150 yards= 15
        35 carries 150 yards= 13.75
        37 carries 150 yards (average ~4.0 game)= 13.25

        10 carries 100 yards= 12.5
        20 carries 100 yards= 10
        25 carries 100 yards (average 4.0 game)= 8.75
        30 carries 100 yards= 7.5

        2 carries 50 yards= 7
        5 carries 50 yards= 6.25
        10 carries 50 yards= 5
        12 carries 50 yards (average ~4.0 game)= 4.5


        Furthermore, an average 4.0 ypc game with an average 20 carries for 80 yards gives you 7 points. These are the yards and carries that would net the same amount of fantasy points as that average #1 RB performance:

        30 for 97 (3.23ypc)
        25 for 88 (3.52)
        20 for 80 (4.0)
        15 for 72 (4.8)
        10 for 63 (6.3)
        5 for 55 (11)

        Determine if that looks right. 15/72 and 10/63 is in the ballpark of the standard output you would expect of a platoon RB. With this system, we'd be saying that a #2 in a platoon is about as valuable as an average 20 carry per game, 4.0 yards per carry #1 RB.


        While no one has said so, just want to have it said we probably don't want to consider efficiency with receivers though since possession receivers are valuable even with lower yards per reception.
        "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
        "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

        Comment


        • #94
          I don't know that I agree with penalizing attempts/carries. Efficiency is good, sure, but I don't know that I want to give a 50 yard game on 2 carries a similar weight to a 100 yard game on 30 carries. Some of that 'lack of efficiency' is also known as 'being given the ball to run out the clock' and other sorts of things that don't necessarily imply "bad player". Also, you would end up significantly over-valuing 3rd down (long) backs, who tend to get a lot more yards per carry because they've got more distance to go [not to confuse this with 3rd down short backs, aka fullbacks].

          I suppose I'd be open to this if it could be shown that it improved the accuracy of the fantasy point rankings. Anyone up for putting up a few lists - top 25 qb/top 50 rb by the following:
          * Fantasy scoring last year
          * Fantasy scoring with per attempt penalty
          * Fantasy scoring with higher points per yard (but no attempt penalty)
          * Actual human-ordered rankings (ie, who are actually the top 25/50 qb/rb)

          The system that gets closest to the human-ordered rankings wins IMO, particularly at ranking the "middle" RBs (I don't care as much about the top and the bottom - sure, Peyton vs Brees vs Brady vs Rodgers is fun to argue about, but in general they should be at the top, and 20 points between them is pretty irrelevant; but Cutler vs Eli vs Henne is really more important IMO).
          <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
          I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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          • #95
            The only dilemma I see with applying this efficiency to RB's is that opportunity doesn't play as big of a role in inflating stats as much as pass attempts do for QB's. What I mean is that backs who get 10-15 carries a game are fresher so they almost always break off bigger runs and have 5.0+ yards per carry averages (Big Brandon Jacobs had a 5.6 ypc last year, for example, way higher than the year previously when he was more of the starter).

            See, unlike QB's, it is in an RB's best interest and he will be more efficient (and get relatively more output) with LESS carries. Just something to consider.
            "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
            "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

            Comment


            • #96
              snoopy, Eli is a significantly better QB than Cutler, though. What gives?
              "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
              "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

              Comment


              • #97
                I did a simplified analysis of the RB's. I did full-season (not fantasy season) stats, excluded fumbles and receiving (some backs were much more valuable in the receiving game so keep that in mind), and focused entirely on yards/carries and yards/carries/TDs.

                The average for yards/TDs was 156 fantasy points for the top-23 RB's with a standard deviation of 40.9. With .15 points per yard, -.25 per carry, and TDs, it was 148.6 and 41.7. So the average goes down a bit and the variance goes up a little.

                This is the ranking on yards alone:
                Spoiler:
                Foster
                Charles
                Turner
                Johnson
                MJD
                AP
                Mendenhall
                Sjax
                Bradshaw
                Rice
                Hillis
                McFadden
                Benson
                McCoy
                Forte
                BJGE
                Blount
                Fjackson
                LT
                Tjones
                Gore
                Jacobs
                Jones
                Moreno
                Stewart


                This is yards and 6 points per TD:
                Spoiler:
                Foster
                Turner
                Mendenhall
                Johnson
                AP
                Hillis
                BJGE
                Charles
                Bradshaw
                MJD
                Sjax
                McFadden
                Benson
                Rice
                McCoy
                Forte
                Blount
                Jacobs
                LT
                Tjones
                Fjackson
                Moreno
                Gore
                Stewart
                Jones


                This is the ranking for yards/carries alone (no TD points):
                Spoiler:


                Charles
                Foster
                Johnson
                AP
                MJD
                Turner
                McFadden
                Bradshaw
                McCoy
                Mendenhall
                Hillis
                Rice
                Sjax
                Forte
                Blount
                BJGE
                Jacobs
                Benson
                Fjackson
                LT
                Gore
                Jones
                Tjones
                Moreno
                Stewart


                And now, yards/carries with TDs:
                Spoiler:
                Foster
                AP
                Turner
                Charles
                Johnson
                Mendenhall
                Hillis
                BJGE
                Bradshaw
                McFadden
                MJD
                McCoy
                Jacobs
                Sjax
                Forte
                Blount
                Rice
                Benson
                LT
                Fjackson
                Tjones
                Moreno
                Gore
                Stewart
                Jones
                "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
                "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

                Comment


                • #98
                  By considering efficiency (along with TDs), some notable movements:

                  Going up:
                  AP goes from #5 to #2
                  Jamaal Charles from #8 to #4
                  McCoy from #15 to #12
                  Jacobs from #18 to #13

                  Going down:
                  Mendenhall drops from #3 (!) to #6

                  Everybody else remains at about the same level.


                  Again, receiving yards are not being included but it does look better than AP goes up to second to only Foster and that Mendenhall, who has no business as a top-3 back, drops down.
                  "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
                  "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    This is how you do the comparison. This is an editable spreadsheet that compare the top 50 rushers from last year (excluding Michael Vick) and it will adjust based on the parameters you choose.

                    https://spreadsheets.google.com/spre...gwcFE&hl=en_US
                    "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                    Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

                    Comment


                    • The main difficulty I'm dealing with is that it's hard to come up with settings (in the annoying yards/point format that Yahoo! uses) that balance nicely and don't get you stuck with ridiculous things like sixths of a point. I'm open to ideas, but I think I overall want to inflate the scoring a little more.
                      Last edited by Jaguar; July 27, 2011, 13:19.
                      "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                      Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

                      Comment


                      • Snoopy's post re 3rd down backs is an excellent example of why this exercise is, IMHO, hopeless.
                        Similarly, analysis presented to date doesn't even consider receiving. So how can this be said to increase realism?

                        Negative points per rushing attempt is one of the most asinine ideas I've ever seen in fantasy football.
                        Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
                        RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-Arms

                        Comment


                        • The real dilemma is what I said, though: that platoon RB's are extremely efficient BECAUSE they get so few carries because their legs stay fresh. An average back who gets 10-15 carries in support of another back will consistently average over 5 yards per carry, an average which is extremely difficult for a feature back who gets 20-25 carries to match.

                          It's a very different circumstance from what happens with QB's, where I'm all for a consideration of efficiency.

                          However, the way Mendenhall dropped and AP and others went up seems to make sense.
                          "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
                          "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Al B. Sure! View Post
                            snoopy, Eli is a significantly better QB than Cutler, though. What gives?
                            Right. If any given system doesn't rank them appropriately (Eli and Cutler are in the 'mid level QB' range, just at different places in it) then it's probably not a good system.
                            <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                            I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
                              Right. If any given system doesn't rank them appropriately (Eli and Cutler are in the 'mid level QB' range, just at different places in it) then it's probably not a good system.
                              Eli was #5 in yardage and #4 in TDs last year, though. Technically, by the numbers, Eli was a top-5 QB last year

                              More yardage than Brady, more TDs than Rivers and Schaub, and both more yardage and more TDs than Rodgers

                              He was #10 in yards and #8 in TDs in 2009. Top-10 QB that year so he's consistently a fantasy QB1, as well.


                              So I disagree with your assessment. Eli is knocking on that elite (Peyton-Brady-Brees-Rivers-Rodgers) door, along with, if not ahead of, Romo, Roethlisberger, Vick, and Schaub. Cutler isn't on the same block. And like I said, more yards and TDs than Rodgers.
                              Last edited by Al B. Sure!; July 27, 2011, 14:18.
                              "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
                              "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Al B. Sure! View Post
                                It's a very different circumstance from what happens with QB's, where I'm all for a consideration of efficiency.

                                However, the way Mendenhall dropped and AP and others went up seems to make sense.
                                The key phrase being "seems to."

                                I don't think it's any different for QBs. You can throw all the numbers you want out there, but the reality is that actual games are ruled by game situations, leading to coaching decisions. Sit on the lead vs. weak offenses; make up for defensive lapses vs. good ones; run out the clock if possible; a WR's great YAC making a joke of YPA... It goes on and on, so the whole idea of rewarding efficiency becomes pockmarked with exceptions.

                                It's a fool's errand, IMHO.
                                Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
                                RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-Arms

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