Apolyton Fantasy Football

[Al B. Sure!]

Conditionally drop Peyton Manning*, Ind QB to Waivers
Conditionally add Rex Grossman, Wsh QB from Waivers to Bench

[Jaguar]

Steve Smith was started in only 22% of CBS fantasy leagues. I bet half of those 22% were retards who just started him because of his name and the other half because their team really lacked WR's and they lucked up.

Jaguar is ridiculous. That was pure luck. No way could he have predicted that showing. Bull****.

Exactly right. I did not (nor should I have) expected to push 200 with Arian Foster out. That I did was luck.

Steve Smith and Kenny Britt are perfectly decent players, and better than the players available for comparable $ in the auction. They were also unusually good plays this particular week, but both far exceeded my expectations. Patrick Peterson and A.J. Jefferson are simply not ready to start at CB in the NFL. The Jaguars, of course, have had an awful pass defense for years. I expected my WR scoring to be OK but not brilliant.

Over the long term, however, I am going to need Foster, McCoy, and Gates to carry that team, because its WR scoring will be weak. It'll finish 8-5 and make the playoffs, and then it'll mostly be luck from there.

[Ben Kenobi]

Kicked your ass? You mean outscored you by a few points, even though we both lost?? Big effing deal.
I mean, thanks for the kind words and all, but it only counts when we play each other.

S'truth. I was very wrong about your team.

[Ben Kenobi]

Wizards never reveal their secrets.

[Jaguar]

Wizards never reveal their secrets.

Hahaha, but I do. Here's a cheat-sheet I gave to a real-life friend. This was at the time when the Peytonpocalypse was uncertain, but my downgrade of the Colts applies in either circumstance. With Manning, they'll be worse than most people expect them to do with Manning. Without Manning, they'll be way worse.





Triple Down: The players I will draft over and over and over.

Drew Brees
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Colt McCoy
Chad Henne

LeSean McCoy
Peyton Hillis
Shonn Greene
Ryan Mathews
Cedric Benson
Daniel Thomas
Danny Woodhead
Darren Sproles

Andre Johnson
Steve Smith (CAR)
Mike Williams (TB)
Santana Moss
A.J. Green
Deion Branch

Antonio Gates
Vernon Davis



Fools Gold: Players incorrectly perceived to hold more value than they do

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Sam Bradford
Jay Cutler
Matt Hasselbeck
Kerry Collins

Jamaal Charles
Chris Johnson
Darren McFadden
Marshawn Lynch
Knowshon Moreno
Ryan Williams
Roy Helu
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
Jacquizz Rodgers

Dwayne Bowe
Dez Bryant
DeSean Jackson
Jeremy Maclin
Austin Collie
Pierre Garcon

Jermichael Finley
Marcedes Lewis



Going Deep: Alan's "who the **** are these guys?" selections

Andre Roberts (WR ARI)
Emmanuel Sanders (WR PIT)
Jared Cook (TE TEN)
David Nelson (WR BUF)
Arrelious Benn (WR TB)
Da'Rel Scott (RB NYG)
Ben Tate (RB HOU)




Teams to Buy: (Weak schedules or other solid indicators)
Cleveland
Houston
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
San Francisco
Buffalo
Cincinnati

Teams to Avoid: Strong schedules or signs of weakness
Kansas City
Washington
Seattle
Indianapolis
Saint Louis
Oakland
Tennessee



QB Top 5
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Philip Rivers
Tom Brady
Ben Roethlisberger

RB Top 5
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Rashard Mendenhall
Adrian Peterson

WR Top 5
Andre Johnson
Roddy White
Larry Fitzgerald
Miles Austin
Calvin Johnson

[Jaguar]

I don't worry about disclosing stuff after my drafts are done, since my preferences become pretty clear after you see me draft LeSean McCoy everywhere. I did actually draft one of my "avoid" guys in Jermichael Finley, because he fell far past the time I expected him to be drafted, and became a decent value pick. This illustrates that all of these predictions are relative to market average. Chris Johnson and Stevan Ridley are both "avoid" guys in my mind, but for Johnson, that means he's maybe the 7th best running back instead of the 2nd-best, and for Ridley, that means he's maybe the 72nd-best running back instead of the 55th-best. When I say that Cincinnati is a team to watch out for, I just mean that they won't be a wasteland like Seattle will. When I say to avoid Kansas City, I know that Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles will be fantasy starters all year - I just want them starting for someone else.

[MRT144]

Only really disagree on the Shonn Greene and Ryan Matthews ones.

[-Jrabbit]

The only guys in those top 5 lists I would question would be Miles Austin (Dez Bryant ascendant) and Rashard Mendenhall (breakdown risk in third year as bellcow RB). Offhand, I would substitute CJohnson and, um, probably Welker.

Interesting that Brady hits both your Fools Gold and Top 5 QB lists...

[Ben Kenobi]

Your list resembles mine, with one big exception. The Rams.

[MRT144]

The only guys in those top 5 lists I would question would be Miles Austin (Dez Bryant ascendant) and Rashard Mendenhall (breakdown risk in third year as bellcow RB). Offhand, I would substitute CJohnson and, um, probably Welker.

Interesting that Brady hits both your Fools Gold and Top 5 QB lists...

I can see Brady being overvalued in an auction league format.

[-Jrabbit]

Only really disagree on the Shonn Greene and Ryan Matthews ones.

Agreed. Their skills (and the teams they're on) indicate they should be more productive than they have been. Interesting that both are hurt by an RB2 that sucks up scoring and 3rd-down opportunities. That said, I've got each of them on at least one team (again) this year; both drafted as later value picks (#47, #54 in 10-team leagues) than where I took them last year (as RB2s in earlier rounds).

[Ben Kenobi]

And you jerks made me pay a higher price for LT.

[Berzerker]

1-5 after the first week and I lost one because I went golfing and forgot to get Tate in for Arian

[Jaguar]

Only really disagree on the Shonn Greene and Ryan Matthews ones.

On Greene: I don't believe in "fool me twice, shame on me." The Jets team composition and schedule difficulty have not changed much since last year, and they should have a solid running game. We had/have a 31/32 year old superstar with three thousand career carries, and a 25/26 year old 3rd-round pick with decent production on his modest number of career carries. The Fantasy Football markets broke in favor of the young guy last time they had this problem, and they were wrong. (I was wrong too.)

The problem hasn't changed, though. We still have a declining superstar and a decent midround pick. The right call is the right call, regardless of what happened in the past. You should be willing to get burned on the right call and then make it again. I am.


On Mathews: It's somewhat the same deal. People hyped him up to near-first-round potential (he might have actually gone in the first in one of our leagues) last year, and once again, the market is afraid of being burned a second time.

They were right to hype him up pretty highly last year. San Diego is a beast offense, and Mathews is one of the rare good RB prospects since the 2008 class. In fact, Mathews was an excellent one. Mathews is 220 lbs and still runs a 4.4! Compare that to Mark Ingram, who is both lighter (215) and much, much slower (4.6).

People saw this and tried to draft him in the 1st and 2nd rounds, and they got burned. Not even that badly, really! He had 800 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs in an injury season. It was a disappointment, but far from evidence that he should suddenly be downgraded to the 81st overall pick (his average draft position.) People are so averse to the visceral reaction when Mike Tolbert "steals" a touchdown from Mathews that they're avoiding Mathews at all costs - to the point of drafting DeAngelo Williams before him! Mathews isn't exactly in the same situation as last year, because we know Tolbert is good as well, but Mathews has more elite talent, and even in a time share he'll make it to 1000 yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs this year. Not bad for the 21st RB taken.

[Ben Kenobi]

Tolbert is a stud. When I pick him up and twice sit him on the bench for crazy days, you know he's a stud.

As for LT's decline period, he's still a solid back.

What are your thoughts on Arizona? I was a big buy on Kolb and Beanie, but once I got Beanie I really didn't need anybody else on the squad.