NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - Off Season

[Al B. Sure!]

Now, to continue the narrative of Flutie's career... what happens when Flutie gets the unquestioned start for a team with a rookie Drew Brees and without Hall of Famers like Thurman Thomas or (soon to be) Andre Reed or a perennial Pro Bowler like Eric Moulds? What happens when he exchanges the Bruce Smith-led defense for a still solid, but nowhere near as good San Diego D (the 2001 San Diego defense ranked 11th in total yards so it was above average but a cut below the Bills of the previous 3 years).

Yes, LT was there but he was a rookie. For the first time in Flutie's career, he had to throw more than he had to hand-off (113 more times, in fact). And now, instead of Moulds and Reed to pass to, he now has Curtis Conway, Jeff Graham, and Tim Dwight. How does Flutie fare?

He throws 15 TDs to 18 INTs in a 5-11 season with the Chargers.

Never again, and for good reason, would a team trust him with the starting job.

[Al B. Sure!]

wow. that took a while to do

[Ben Kenobi]

imaginary career passer ratings are you using? Flutie was 76.3.

Which is his career passer rating. If you were referring to passer rating plus, you'd have said it was 97. Yeah I read it wrong, but you completely misunderstood I was referring to passer rating plus until I told you what I was doing. You'd also have said it was 112 instead of the number you did cite, which is exactly what you did do in the next post to save face. So why play the fool? I knew you'd do exactly that, and then go back and say what you just did to try to convince people you meant something else. Don't bother.

It doesn't help or strengthen your argument.

[Ben Kenobi]

I can't believe Ben is actually extrapolating what Flutie's career numbers would have been using a supposed performance decline curve based on a single NFL season and claiming that Flutie should be a Hall of Famer. He actually predicted yardage, TDs, and win percentage!

Based on a single season? Hardly. It's based also on the fact that he was an nfl average passer at the age of 40. The decline curve includes the period before and the period after. I only did this after checking out just how many QBs had numbers similar or better to Flutie on his return, and the closest to his decline curve is in fact Fran Tarkenton, at least according to passer rating plus.

So I decided to be conservative and suggest that 2700 yards and 20 TDs a year would be reasonable for the prime of Flutie's career, numbers he bested at the age of 36. I haven't checked what exactly that would mean for passer rating plus in those years, but I was just giving a rough estimate of where he would be. The numbers are very similar to Kelly, and just a hair over, which is exactly where I thought he would be on the ratings, a borderline hall of famer, assuming he never had postseason success with the Patriots.

Ben, if he really was capable of being a top passer in the NFL while he was in the CFL, why did he stay in the CFL?

Why do you believe that it was his decision to do so? Warner's wandering in the desert lasted until he was 27. Flutie didn't even start in the CFL until he was a year older, due to the fact that he starred in the USFL, and then later made the jump to the NFL. He was at the wrong point of his career to jump back into the NFL. Moon, also, was 29 when he made the jump to the NFL. Even Ichiro made the jump at 27.

that tells me he wasn't actually good and able to play in the NFL whenever he wanted at a high level and chose the CFL out of some loyalty to Canada.

He was simply the wrong age to make the jump back, and at the wrong point in his career. He had something to prove in the CFL, and that was that he could be an effective professional QB. Until he had success, finally with the BC Lions, he had proven he could make the jump.

If he was good enough to be a Hall of Famer why didn't he play in the NFL during his heydey?

He wasn't properly developed. Partly out of his fault for choosing the USFL. He was never given a fair shake partly out of the labour dispute (as he was a scab during the strike season). He didn't have much sympathy for the professionals striking over more money, because he felt they were adequately paid, and that if you had a job you should just show up and do the job, especially when people in other professions suffered far more for far less. Partly the fault of the organisations as well, including the Bears and the Patriots simply not having a clue how to make a good QB. Until Brady came along, neither team had what could be called even a 10 year career average passer.

[Ben Kenobi]

7 out of 10 wins were against .500 or worse teams

Pro football reference has their expect winning percentage at about 9.5-6.5 in '98. So Flutie who was 7-3, was expected to have gone 6-4 over that span. The Bills were 2 wins over their expected winning percentage with Flutie, and would have went 11-5 that year, instead of 10-6. That's a quantifiable, measureable statistic.

Yes, they were a run first team with a solid defense. That was good enough for 9-7, or 8-8 if you take away Flutie. Had Flutie started the entire season, they could have been even better, at 11-5.

Rob Johnson, starting for this very same team, went 3-3. So that backs up my statement that they were a .500 at best team without Flutie and with Rob Johnson in.

Now, how about 1999 when Flutie started the entire season? Wow, gee. I get the exact number I predicted, 11-5. That reinforces the fact that Flutie starting made them a game better over Flutie starting 2/3rds of the season, and about 3 games better than 8-8, that they would have been without Flutie.

[Ben Kenobi]

Yes, Rob Johnson went 4-7 in his 11 starts while Flutie went 4-1, but Flutie definitely got the lucky end of the stick with matchups.

His passer rating was adequate at 106 in 2000. Flutie's was the same as it was in his pro bowl season of 112, excellent numbers for the age of 38. So recap. 27 year old young man got his butt kicked by a 38 year old QB.

The Bills go on to reward Johnson with the starter job the next year. Let's see how he does with no Flutie at all.

He keeps his job until November, half the season, where he went 1-7, and was outplayed by Alex Van Pelt. He of the 96 passer rating.

He was then shipped out to Tampa, the superbowl champions as a backup to Brad Johnson. He actually had his first NFL winning season as a below-average NFL passer, going 2-0 with the superbowl championship Bucs.

So, in short.

Bills with Flutie over an entire season, 11-5.
Bills with Rob Johnson, who went 8-17, would have been 5-11.

[Ben Kenobi]

Now, to continue the narrative of Flutie's career... what happens when Flutie gets the unquestioned start for a team with a rookie Drew Brees and without Hall of Famers like Thurman Thomas or (soon to be) Andre Reed or a perennial Pro Bowler like Eric Moulds? What happens when he exchanges the Bruce Smith-led defense for a still solid, but nowhere near as good San Diego D (the 2001 San Diego defense ranked 11th in total yards so it was above average but a cut below the Bills of the previous 3 years).

Are you forgetting something?

How did the Chargers get Tomlinson in the first place? They went 1-15 the previous season!

They were the absolute worst team coming into 2001.

How did they do with Flutie? They were 5-11. Did he have a great season? He threw for 3500 yards, but had 15 TDs, and 18 INTs for a 90 QB rating+, at the age of 39.

Why so low? His QB+ percentage was only 89. His Y/A was at the NFL average. His completion percentage was a bit lower. So what we see is that we'd expect his receivers to be dropping balls they should have caught, and dropping TD passes all year. Lets look at his receiving corp.

Curtis Conway had 1125 yards and Jeff Graham had 811 yards. Tomlinson caught 59 passes out of the backfield, fumbling 8 of them.

I wonder how many of the Bears fans remember Conway.

Let's play guess that year. Which of the following years did Conway catch passes from Flutie?

1997 44 476
1998 54 733
1999 44 426
2000 53 712
2001 71 1125
2002 57 852
2003 46 640
2004 38 403

Never again, and for good reason, would a team trust him with the starting job.

Considering Conway had a career year with Flutie, it wasn't because of him.

Let's look at some of those wins:

W 1-0 Washington Redskins 30 3
W 2-0 @ Dallas Cowboys 32 21
W 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals 28 14
W 4-2 Denver Broncos 27 10
W 5-2 Buffalo Bills 27 24

Only one of which was close.

Losses:

L 3-1 @ Cleveland Browns 16 20
L 3-2 @ New England Patriots 26 29
L 5-4 @ Denver Broncos 16 26
L 5-5 @ Oakland Raiders 24 34
L 5-6 Arizona Cardinals 17 20
L 5-7 @ Seattle Seahawks 10 13
L 5-8 @ Philadelphia Eagles 14 24
L 5-9 Oakland Raiders 6 13
L 5-10 @ Kansas City Chiefs 17 20
L 5-11 Seattle Seahawks 22 25

11 losses by a combined 56 points, average loss by 5 points.

5 wins, average win by 14.4 points. They were actually +11 on point differential, and yet went 5-11.

[Ben Kenobi]

Against the Browns, FGs from 22 and 21 yards, no passing TDs.
Against the Patriots, they would have won the game, but Richey missed a convert, and the Pats were able to tie the game and send it to OT, where they won the toss.
Against KC, they started Brees, but still lost.
Against Denver, fumble return for a TD to end the game on the next set of downs after Flutie threw a 72 yard TD pass to bring them within a FG.
Against the Raiders, they threw for two TD passes Jerry Rice and a FG to bury the Chargers.
Against Arizona, Gramatica kicked a 42 yard last second FG to end the game.
Against Seattle, Richey kicked a 26 yard FG. Seattle kicked a 43 yard last second FG to tie the game, and then won the toss in OT.
Against the Eagles, Flutie actually threw for 2 TDs, but LT couldn't get anything going. Brian Dawkins returns one of his fumbles for a TD, and a kick from Akers seals the game.
Against the Raiders again. Rematch with Gannon, Chargers kick FGs from the 20 and the 25. 0 TDs.
Against KC, they should have won. They were up until KC ran down the clock on a long drive and then scored the TD to win the game. The D couldn't stop Priest Holmes with a 4 point lead in the 4th Quarter in Arrowhead.
Against Seattle again, Lindell lucks out on a 54 yard last second FG to win the game.

[Ben Kenobi]

By my count, four last second FGs, to either tie or win, both OT games were losses.

2 LT fumbles returned for TDs.

12 FGs of less than 30 yards.

So there you go. They couldn't score passing TDs in the red zone. LT had crucial fumbles, 2 of which were returned for TDs and they lost every close game but one, against Rob Johnson's Buffalo Bills.

They were actually 12th in point differential that season, 7th in the AFC, and a borderline wildcard.

The class of the AFC were the Steelers, Raiders and Patriots (who needed OT and a missed convert to beat the Chargers).

The wildcard that year were the Dolphins, Ravens and the Jets, who were (+13) in point differential, 2 ahead of the Chargers.

The Chargers had a better season in 2001 than they had until their breakout year in 2004.

[Al B. Sure!]

Let's play guess that year. Which of the following years did Conway catch passes from Flutie?

1997 44 476
1998 54 733
1999 44 426
2000 53 712
2001 71 1125
2002 57 852
2003 46 640
2004 38 403

You are so disingenous. You fail to note that in 1997 and 1999, Conway was injured and only played 15 games combined in those two years. In 1998, his QB was Steve Stenstrom who sucked ass.

You also conveniently ignore the two years prior to his injury shortened 1997 campaign... interesting that you would start your list AFTER 1995 when he had 1037 yards and 12 TDs or 1996 when he had 81 catches for 1049 yards, with the awesome Erik Kramer in 95 and amazing Dave Krieg in 96.

In fact, 95, 96, and 2001 were the only years in Conway's career that he started all 16 games. Unsurprisingly, they're his best years.

How convenient to your case, Ben, that you IGNORE those facts

[Ben Kenobi]

DVOA actually ranked the Chargers 9th that year.

1 STL 39.6% 14-2 45.6% 33.5% 1 25.6% 1 -20.8% 3 -6.8% 28
2 PHI 32.4% 11-5 30.5% 24.4% 3 -1.3% 12 -24.6% 1 9.1% 1
3 TAM 21.0% 9-7 21.7% 23.5% 5 -1.7% 13 -19.5% 4 3.2% 7
4 SFO 20.6% 12-4 24.7% 31.4% 2 16.1% 2 -6.9% 14 -2.4% 21
5 PIT 17.7% 13-3 24.5% 20.5% 7 11.5% 4 -8.9% 12 -2.7% 23
6 OAK 16.4% 10-6 16.3% 11.9% 9 15.4% 3 -3.4% 18 -2.4% 22
7 NYJ 14.0% 10-6 20.1% 9.0% 11 -1.1% 11 -13.2% 8 1.8% 8
8 GNB 13.8% 12-4 24.4% 11.3% 10 2.1% 8 -11.0% 11 0.7% 11
9 SDG 10.2% 5-11 8.9% -9.0% 19 -3.8% 16 -13.9% 7 0.2% 14

The superbowl champion Patriots? 14th.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2004/2001-dvoa-ratings-and-commentary

[Ben Kenobi]

You also conveniently ignore the two years prior to his injury shortened 1997 campaign... interesting that you would start your list AFTER 1995 when he had 1037 yards and 12 TDs or 1996 when he had 81 catches for 1049 yards, with the awesome Erik Kramer in 95 and amazing Dave Krieg in 96.

And how does that refute that his best season by far was when Flutie was throwing to him? He only needed 71 catches to outpace his previous career high 5 years before, by a full 75 yards. Y/C went up to 15.84 from 12.94, a significant improvement of nearly 3 yards per catch.

[Al B. Sure!]

Pro football reference has their expect winning percentage at about 9.5-6.5 in '98. So Flutie who was 7-3, was expected to have gone 6-4 over that span. The Bills were 2 wins over their expected winning percentage with Flutie, and would have went 11-5 that year, instead of 10-6. That's a quantifiable, measureable statistic.

Yes, they were a run first team with a solid defense. That was good enough for 9-7, or 8-8 if you take away Flutie. Had Flutie started the entire season, they could have been even better, at 11-5.

Rob Johnson, starting for this very same team, went 3-3. So that backs up my statement that they were a .500 at best team without Flutie and with Rob Johnson in.

Now, how about 1999 when Flutie started the entire season? Wow, gee. I get the exact number I predicted, 11-5. That reinforces the fact that Flutie starting made them a game better over Flutie starting 2/3rds of the season, and about 3 games better than 8-8, that they would have been without Flutie.

You do realize that 1) expected winning % doesn't mean **** and 2) that number is INCLUDING Flutie at QB! You can't separate Flutie out and say, hey look, they did better than expected so it must be Flutie when the expected value CAME retroactively from the Bills WITH Flutie.

Hell, for all you know, Flutie actually brought down the %. This was the league's #3 running team and #6 defense.

The only teams last year that were in the top 6 in the league in both rushing and defense were the Jets and Ravens. Interestingly enough, both teams went 9-7 and won in the playoffs (which Flutie did not do).

So Flutie is better than a rookie Sanchez or an injured sophmore slump Flacco. Gee. I'll give him that!


In 1999, Flutie started almost all the games and went 10-5... you keep saying 11-5 but that 11th win came from Johnson whooping the Colts. Johnson gets that one, Ben.

Still, the 99 Bills were the #1 defense and 8th rushing. Let me take a look at all the #1 defenses of the past several years and how they did as well as the QB who started for them:

2009: Jets 9-7 lost in AFC championship game (rookie Sanchez)
2008: Steelers 12-4 won SB (Big Ben)
2007: Steelers 10-6 lost in wildcard round (Big Ben)
2006: Ravens 13-3 lost in divisional round (near retirement McNair)
2005: Buccaneers 11-5 lost in wildcard round (Chris Simms and Brian Griese)
2004: Steelers 15-1 lost in wildcard round (rookie Big Ben)
2003: Cowboys 10-6 lost in wildcard round (QUINCY ****ING CARTER)
2002: Buccaneers 12-4 won SB (Brad Johnson)
2001: Steelers 13-3 lost in AFC championship game (KORDELL ****ING STEWART)
2000: Titans 13-3 lost in divisional round (Steve McNair)
1999: Bills 11-5 lost in wildcard round (Flutie)

WOW! It really does not matter who you have at QB... It could be a rookie Roethlisberger, rookie Sanchez,, Chris Simms, Brad Johnson, Kordell Stewart, or even QUINCY ****ING CARTER! If you have the #1 Defense in the NFL, you are virtually GUARANTEED at least a 10-6 record and a playoff spot.

Hell, of the 11 teams that had the #1 D over the past 11 seasons, the average is 11.72 wins (FLUTIE'S BILLS DID WORSE THAN AVERAGE!)! Two teams won Super Bowls, two teams lost in the Conference championship game, two more lost in the divisional round, and the remaining 5 teams (Flutie's Bills included) lost in the wildcard round.

WOW!

FLUTIE HAD ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH GOING 11-5 AND MAKING THE PLAYOFFS!

QUINCY ****ING CARTER DID IT!

And again... the 99 Bills performed WORSE than the average for teams with #1 Defenses... they had 11 wins with an average of 11.72 for teams with #1 D's.

His passer rating was adequate at 106 in 2000. Flutie's was the same as it was in his pro bowl season of 112, excellent numbers for the age of 38. So recap. 27 year old young man got his butt kicked by a 38 year old QB.

Are you blind, too? Did you not see how I pointed out that Johnson had an incredibly more difficult schedule. Average winning % of the teams he faced was .545 while Flutie faced off against .450 teams. That is not an insignificant difference!

[Al B. Sure!]

And how does that refute that his best season by far was when Flutie was throwing to him? He only needed 71 catches to outpace his previous career high 5 years before, by a full 75 yards. Y/C went up to 15.84 from 12.94, a significant improvement of nearly 3 yards per catch.

HOLY CRAP ARE YOU A LIAR!

2001, Conway had a yards per reception average of 15.8 and in 1996, he had one of 13.0 True

BUT in 1995, he had 62 catches for 1037 and 12 TDs, a yards per reception average of 16.7!

He had nearly a full yard more per average reception in 1995 with Erik Kramer than he did in 2001 with Flutie!

[Donegeal]

For my part in this... I think Eric Kramer was a better QB than Flutie.