NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - Off Season

[MRT144]

How is Y/A the right measure to say who is better?

[Al B. Sure!]

How is Y/A the right measure to say who is better?

Y/A tells you average yards a QB gets every time he throws the ball. What the ****? I can't see how you don't understand that a 12 Y/A is so much better than a 6 Y/A.

[Al B. Sure!]

Do you want a QB who, on average, every passing play, throws for 6 yards? Or for 12 yards? Assuming completion percentage is the same, who is the chain-mover?

[MRT144]

Y/A tells you average yards a QB gets every time he throws the ball. What the ****? I can't see how you don't understand that a 12 Y/A is so much better than a 6 Y/A.

I dont see why less completions should be rewarded more in a fantasy football format. You want less point differentiation among QBs?

[MRT144]

Do you want a QB who, on average, every passing play, throws for 6 yards? Or for 12 yards? Assuming completion percentage is the same, who is the chain-mover?

If moving the chains is what counts then give points for passing first downs.

[-Jrabbit]

There is no reasonable measure of QB efficiency, and any system will have anomalies.

35/50 300 yards: 15 points for yards, 20 points for completions; 35 points
15/30 300 yards: 15 points for yards, 0 points for completions: 15 points

It's a matter of perspective. That's 70% accuracy vs 50%, and 20 more plays of ball control.

Just as you want RBs with more touches and WRs with more "thrown to's," you want QBs with more passing attempts.
Just as Risk is not like RL war, FANTASY FOOTBALL IS NOT REALITY.

[MRT144]

So here's a quick thing I did for the top 29 QBs in the league by attempts:

I compared their values with and without adding in +.5 for completions and -.5 for incompletes (different than our league settings of +.5 and -.25) for their season stats;

The people least affected as a percentage of the points they earned had the following pass accuracy:

Derek Anderson: 51% Pass Accuracy, 5% fantasy point difference
Mark Sanchez: 54%, 13%
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 57%, 19%
(Theres quite a few at 58%, 19%)

Most affected:
Drew Brees: 68%, 34%
Peyton Manning: 66%, 32%
Jon Kitna: 65%, 30%
Tom Brady: 65%, 29%

Median Score and Standard Deviation with Completions and Attempts: 208, 57
Without: 165, 32

So basically it does work as a proxy for accuracy quite effectively and it helps create differentiation between QBs.

[MRT144]

There is no reasonable measure of QB efficiency, and any system will have anomalies.



It's a matter of perspective. That's 70% accuracy vs 50%, and 20 more plays of ball control.

Just as you want RBs with more touches and WRs with more "thrown to's," you want QBs with more passing attempts.
Just as Risk is not like RL war, FANTASY FOOTBALL IS NOT REALITY.

And that's the thing, the hypothetical Al is giving is rare. It's rare that attempts and yards are not strongly correlated (.9 correlation).

[MRT144]

And in the case of two players, like Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, factoring in TDs (+6) INTs (-3) sacks (-1), Aaron Rodgers is only 5 fantasy points better than Manning without completions but 10 fantasy points better despite Eli's

100 More passes, 14 more INTs, ~300 basis points less accuracy, 3 More TDs and 15 less sacks.

There is more variation when you factor that in. You're essentially saying Phillip Rivers should be less better than Matt Ryan on the whole of the season fantasy point wise despite outperforming by 1000 total yards, 60 YpG, 2 Y/A, 350 basis points of Accuracy and only 2 more TDs and having worse stats in 4 more INTs, and 15 more sacks.

You'd prefer Rivers be only 35 Points better instead of 43 points better? Why? Cause of a carefully crafted hypothetical?

[MRT144]

To boot, in terms of fantasy points, if you remove the completion and attempts, TDs have a higher correlation to total fantasy output, yards have less.

[Al B. Sure!]

And that's the thing, the hypothetical Al is giving is rare. It's rare that attempts and yards are not strongly correlated (.9 correlation).

Which is why it makes NO SENSE to further INFLATE pass-heavy QB's with additional points JUST FOR THROWING THE BALL!

[Al B. Sure!]

The pass-heavy QB's are already so valuable because they get big yardage and are more likely to put up big TD numbers. Why the hell further inflate their value by giving them points just for throwing the ball?!

[Al B. Sure!]

The people least affected as a percentage of the points they earned had the following pass accuracy:

Derek Anderson: 51% Pass Accuracy, 5% fantasy point difference
Mark Sanchez: 54%, 13%
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 57%, 19%
(Theres quite a few at 58%, 19%)

Most affected:
Drew Brees: 68%, 34%
Peyton Manning: 66%, 32%
Jon Kitna: 65%, 30%
Tom Brady: 65%, 29%

Exactly. So the guys that don't throw that much stay about the same whether we have points for completions or not whereas the guys who are in pass-heavy offenses EXPLODE with 30% more points with the points for completions.

Why? Brady/Peyton Manning/Brees get enough points as is with all that yardage and TDs. Why inflate them more with points just for throwing the ball?

[MRT144]

Which is why it makes NO SENSE to further INFLATE pass-heavy QB's with additional points JUST FOR THROWING THE BALL!

So you're saying Aaron Rodgers shouldn't be that much better than Eli even though he threw less and had better rates in every statistic barring sacks?

Phillip Rivers shouldn't be that much better than Matt Ryan despite less pass attempts and better rates on everything barring INTs and Sacks?

Or that Drew Brees should be .5 worse than Matt Ryan despite eclipsing him in every category except INTs and sacks and leading the league with 68.1% accuracy?

Matt Ryan is everything wrong with your argument. Matt Ryan had the best TD/INT ratio in the league and that's the only reason he's so high in points. The players who benefit most when counting completions against attempts in the top 10 for attempts are Palmer, Schaub and Bradford. Matt Cassel benefits the most when not counting completions against attempts.

Also, you should inflate pass heavy offense numbers because it's an opportunity cost with running backs on a play by play basis per team and it presents more strategic league options in drafting.

[MRT144]

Exactly. So the guys that don't throw that much stay about the same whether we have points for completions or not whereas the guys who are in pass-heavy offenses EXPLODE with 30% more points with the points for completions.

Why? Brady/Peyton Manning/Brees get enough points as is with all that yardage and TDs. Why inflate them more with points just for throwing the ball?

because median QBs get a lot of points without throwing the ball well. Case in point - Ryan Fitzpatrick was the median QB and earned 155 (These are all without factoring in completions and attempts.) less fantasy points from passing than Brady, almost 10 less per game. Ryans numbers - 441 Attempts, 3000 Yards, 23 TDs, 16 INTs, 57.8% accuracy. Brady's numbers - 492 Attempts, 3900 Yards, 36 TDs, 4 INTs, 65%. 155 point difference!

Now if you factor in completions and attempts, 174 point difference. It creates a slight difference but rewards accurate passers more. Why should the separation between Brady and Fitzpatricks not be greater?