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£20 on South Africa to win the first half and for New Zealand to win...at 8 to 1, this gives me a £20 free bet for next week which is also useful.
£5 on Ma Nonu to score at 7 to 1
£5 on New Zealand to win by 11-15 at 13-1
Clearly I could lose all that money, but my thinking is this...
South Africa are likely to come out of the traps really hard and fast and will be looking to prove something. New Zealand showed against Australia a certain amount of vulnerability in the early part of the game before getting to grips with their opponent, then they reverted to type - no team is better in the last 20 minutes than New Zealand in my opinion.
Ma Nonu to score sometime in the game is almost a certainty at some point in this tri-Nations as New Zealand break through the center as often as not and he is such a hard lump to stop. I think it is less likely the New Zelanders will go via the wings as South Africa have strength there, but will attack the center with many support players as they usually do.
Then the winning points margin...well, I was tempted to go with South Africa to counter misfortune for me...but, at 13-1 it seems a fair bet...
It'll be an interesting game and will definitely help inform my betting next week. New Zealand with McCaw so rarely lose, against the French they truely threw victory away, they demolished the Aussies and in the Autumn they nilled the South Africans. It'd be mad to bet against them...
I was right. And if Pienaar could kick, I would've been even more right.
" ... and the following morning I should see the Boks wallop the Wallabies again?" - Havak "The only thing worse than being quoted in someone's sig is not being quoted in someone's sig." - finbar, with apologies to Oscar Wilde.
It was going VERY nicely till Weepu spent a good minute flapping about, then finally delivered a useless pass to a player not really going anywhere (no one was clear what Weepu was doing) then Spies put a boot through and in the ensuing chaos SA got their second try.
Very irritating!
The South Africans deserved their victory and should have won by more...but, I can't really say it was a game of rugby as it was more like watching a wrestling match. The breakdown was very, very, very slow. Anyone who went into contact was wrapped up for ages before the ball would come out. I felt that the referee was very tame in the first half with NZ who were infringing every two seconds and then again to SA in the mid-part of the 2nd half (consistent at least).
South Africa are certainly a excellent team, however for all their strength and ability, they don't appear able to control a game and deliver a sound thrashing when they are dominating. The Lions fought back against them, the NZers nearly got to do that as well. If they have a bad day, the SA I think will take a heavy loss.
NZ. Almost as unpredictable as the French atm...going to be an interesting tri-Nations.
I was right. And if Pienaar could kick, I would've been even more right.
Yup you were right. But, that isn't enough to make much money gambling.
SA were clearly the favorites going into this, so not alot of money to be made there. Betting on the margin of victory would be tricky in that SA quite often just squeeze past the NZers.
I still think I took the right approach to betting on this game and it almost came off and the reward would have been massive.
I've a £20 free bet for next week and if that doesn't go right I'm not betting any more on this Tri-Nations thing - far less predictable than the 6 Nations given that Aus/Nz are in such flux atm!
Well look at it this way - Finbar was right about the Boks emulating England. They held the ball for 32 mins in the first half and failed to make that count on the scoreboard. The ABs were utterly woeful in that half - I have never seen them make as many mistakes in a half of rugby. The 'lame' Lions would have destroyed them.
The loss of Pienaar changed the game.
It is by the way both disrespectful and wrong to say NZ threw the first test against France away - France won that test fair and square.
All of the ABs autumn opponents will fancy their chances now I think. Now Carter has survived 80 mins get him back in that black shirt toute suite. And find a number 9 to put alongside him too.
Mind you the welsh regions are talking of not releasing players for the AB game so that might be an easy win.
It is better to keep silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt
The ABs were utterly woeful in that half - I have never seen them make as many mistakes in a half of rugby. The 'lame' Lions would have destroyed them.
The Boks steamrolled them in that half. I'm not sure that I've ever seen an AB team under so much pressure. There were some eerie comparisons with the Lions. Boks in complete control before losing their way. They really need to look at why they're not playing 80 minutes. Of course, the ABs aren't the Lions, which helped the Boks yesterday.
Regardless, the Boks should feast on the Wallabies.
The loss of Pienaar changed the game.
Again, eerie Lions comparisons. A Fruit Loop selection that could have cost his team dearly. Pienaar has been kicking badly for months. Why Steyn didn't start is anybody's guess.
All of the ABs autumn opponents will fancy their chances now I think. Now Carter has survived 80 mins get him back in that black shirt toute suite. And find a number 9 to put alongside him too.
Precisely. du Preez murdered them yesterday. I don't think Leonard has ever been good enough. Nor is Cowan. Weepu is more aggressive but still lacks class. I'm not sure that there's anyone else. Donald remains hesitant and clueless about running a game. Carter's going to have to do it all on his own.
Nonu has his moments but not often enough. With Carter back, McAlister has to play #12, discipline his ego and mesh with his backline. How many yards did Bryan Habana run yesterday chasing the restarts? How often was he wrapping up or harassing the receiver? The AB wingers have to work harder.
" ... and the following morning I should see the Boks wallop the Wallabies again?" - Havak "The only thing worse than being quoted in someone's sig is not being quoted in someone's sig." - finbar, with apologies to Oscar Wilde.
I think that Francois Steyn should be the kicker, since he is just as a good and since Morne is a terrible tackler, they should go with a reliable kicker and have a good passer and general in the number 10 spot, which Pienaar is, but his kicking it terrible. Habana's work off the kick off was awesome, it was a shame he was not give more of the ball to work his magic.
Sensible stuff Finbar. I admire Kiwi optimism but the reality for me is they are currently well short of their own demanded standards.
Hougaard has joined Saracens. That is a club with a great history but it's hard to see where they are headed right now. They seem to be becoming a feeder and training franchise for the RSA S14 sides.
Two signings by Tigers. Parling, a good back row clubman (seems to be in for Cozza and the Kiwi Herring who has now joined our coaching staff). And most interstingly Anthony Allen. two years ago he looked like England's long term answer at 12. It has never really worked for him since at Gloucester (but then in a club coached until recently by Ryan that isn't too surprising). Still only 22 joinging Tigers might propel him back into the England frame.
With Mauger still under contract, Allen joins Tom Youngs in competing for the 12 shirt. It is time for Youngs to make the step up, he is now 21 and that early promise now needs to be converted to senior squad action.
It is better to keep silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt
England have featured in every RWC final this century, winning one (or 50% for the stattos amongst you).
NZ....haven't. Featured in one that is.
I take it you had a good time friday night?
Facts are not important Finbar. As Cal proved above?
In an overall comparison of all the results of the last 20 years, I have no doubt that NZ's record is significantly better than England's. Being a NZer, I don't like to put too much weight on RWC results.
...people like to cry a lot...- Pekka ...we just argue without evidence, secure in our own superiority.- Snotty
Well done SA, they deserved the win. That first half performance was quite something. Just imagine how much SA would have thrashed the lame Lions if they had played like that against them all tour.
The positives:
Donald took it up another notch from last week, who knew he could kick goals so well? A pleasant surprise.
We seem to have found a new tighthead, the scrum was noticeably better when Franks was on, and he is busy in the loose.
Smith and Kaino played well.
McCaw tackled like a demon, an improvement from a sub-par effort last week.
Subs made a difference, changed the game.
Despite playing a gruelling game last weekend, and then travelling all the way to SA, and playing at altitude, we came within a Weepu brainfart and 3 Eaton **** ups of running a rabid Boks side very close.
The negatives:
Somebody needs to tell Nonu to run straight. Can be a wrecking ball when he does, but he has started to spend too much time messing around with (not so) fancy footwork.
Joe doesn’t look to be getting his confidence back. He's not safe under the high ball, and is offering little in attack. Bring back Jane I say.
I don't want to harp on about the ref as we got the rub of the green last weekend, but if he penalises Leonard for not putting in it straight, surely he must do likewise to Du Preez.
Leonard had a poor game. Shame because he looked promising when he first came onto the scene.
Tialata and Eaton - move aside please.
Mils, probably the best fullback in the world, had another poor game. Kick the god damn thing!
One of the poorest passages of AB play I've ever seen: Weepu takes an age to get it out, throws a shocker of a pass. Crap attempt at a catch by Eaton. Spies hacks it forward, Weepu ends up with it, throws a no-looker over the shoulder, knocked on by Richie, and then SA gather and score.
The Lineout. The first one of the game, Ross calls it long as he did last week with the same result. Our lineout is now an area of weakness again, after showing previous signs of improvement.
First Half Scrum. Got shoved around a fair bit, rectified when Tialate came off.
The support play. Usually a strength of the ABs, there were too many runners without support, which led to turnovers, or if we did get it back, it was inevitably slow ball and stifled any attacking play
My changes for next week: IN Cowan OUT Leonard, IN Franks OUT Tialata, IN Jane OUT Rokocoko, IN Evans OUT Eaton.
Fair summation. Apart from Donald taking it up a notch, apart from the fact that he kicked straight, unless that was what you meant. He has zilch idea of strategy, of managing a game. If Carter is crocked again, goodnight. I agree that Cowan is probably better than Leonard - of whom I've never been a fan - but Cowan still isn't good enough. For all his foibles, I'd stick with Weepu. At least he adds some mongrel. Neither Rokocoko nor Sivivatu are doing enough. Both are living on past deeds. Is Rudi Wulf crocked?
Anyways, if the Boks ever learn to play 80 minutes of rugby, it all becomes an academic exercise.
" ... and the following morning I should see the Boks wallop the Wallabies again?" - Havak "The only thing worse than being quoted in someone's sig is not being quoted in someone's sig." - finbar, with apologies to Oscar Wilde.
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