MLB - 2008 Season

[Fistandantilus]

Imran trusts numbers more than people

[-Jrabbit]

So your argument is that your subjective impressions based on watching him play is more accurate than objective statistical analysis?

I know it's anathema to all you smug sabermetricians, but YES. If you're managing a baseball team, you're paid to deal with what's in front of you. And Soriano today is not the same person represented in your stat tracking. HE IS INJURED.

It's a fact. And it's not considered in your precious stats.

I'm a big fan of using statistical tools to cut through the crap. But when a player is injured and it affects his play, those numbers become virtually meaningless. Just as Soriano's stats for stolen bases and scoring from second on a single will inevitably decline, so too does his usefulness on defense.

BUT YOU WON'T KNOW UNTIL BILL JAMES TELLS YOU NEXT WINTER.

There's a reason that stock funds are required to state: "Past performance is no guarantee of future success." It's because things change.

[Imran Siddiqui]

You do realize though, that the numbers I've shown you are from this year, right? Now if you are saying he's injured right now and he isn't as good as he was earlier in the season defensively, it will show up, but, nothing in your earlier statements indicates this and it seems you changed your tune in responding to the stats. He was a "butcher" and he had to "outrun his mistakes", but outrunning mistakes is the only time you brought in his injury woes.

Btw, the stats are updated daily. Range Factor, Zone Rating, FRAA, Rate2, etc. are all updated WELL before next winter.

Imran trusts numbers more than people

As should everyone. Numbers cut through subjective crap.

[-Jrabbit]

Yeah. Damn shame all those humans keep creating subjective crap for you to cut through.

My original statement was (quite obviously) one of frustration when Piniella's brinksmanship with keeping Soriano in the field late in games finally and with no doubt cost the Cubs a game. There has been no change in my opinion.

It amazes me how myopic people can be. When conditions change (leg injury), your basis for comparison must change. Polluting your data by including healthy-era stats is every bit a stupid as making gut-feel decisions that are not informed by relevant stats.

[Ming]

I would love to see just the stats from when he came back from the injury instead of the full year. He has indeed been a butcher since he was activated.

And... I don't even want to comment about his perfect fielding percentage. If you don't try to get to the ball, it's tough to get an error. Since the injury, he has been terrible. He's shown no hustle, and it will be a cold day in hell before he actually dives or leaps for a ball.

[Imran Siddiqui]

You mean like calling him a butcher who has to outrun his mistakes (and can't anymore due to injury) and then forcing yourself to backtrack when the stats have shown him to be an above average LF (That statement makes the assumption that he is a butcher all the time, but has been able to outrun mistakes in the past)? I'm sure pretty sure that even with an injured leg, Soriano is probably an average LF in the field (and better than anyone else the Cubs have used in LF, who have had horrid range... seriously DeRosa and Johnson have been HORRID in their range at LF).

So who plays LF as a defensive replacement? DeRosa with his 1.65 R/9 (the average LF is 1.86, btw). What about Johnson with 1.41? Or Hoffpaiur or Murton with 1.50? I'm betting you that even an injured Soriano is better than those chumps out there.

I mean, really, Soriano "cost his team a game" because he got a ball lost in the lights, which happens to everyone on occasion. Not because he was some liability in the field.

[Ming]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
I'm betting you that even an injured Soriano is better than those chumps out there.

As I said, I would love to see the stats since he was called back up. Granted, we only really remember the great or bad plays, but all I remember since then has been many bad plays, two of which cost us games.

As you say, we are talking left field here. However, I wouldn't mind if it at least looked like he was trying. He doesn't look like he is... and I think that's what's pissing off many fans.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Which could be problematic, sure... but if he isn't trying and is still getting to more balls than DeRosa (to be fair, DeRosa isn't a LFer) or Johnson, then there is no reason to replace him... unless there is thought that it is aggravating his leg injury and not helping it to heal (but then why not take him out in every game and not just close ones).

I mean, I'm not sure what the range was pre-injury, but its 1.89 now, which is a 0.24 gap between him and DeRosa, the next LF on the team in range. That's quite a gap and the 1.89 is taking into account his time while back from the DL.

[Ming]

Yeah... but I would like to see what it's been like only since he got back. I wouldn't be surprised to see that it is much lower than the full year stats.

[Imran Siddiqui]

On other hand, I believe he has played about twice as many games since coming off the DL than he did prior to the injury.

So this may be the proper stat. After all, 1.89 R/9 is a decent amount below his career average (which is a very good 2.22).

[rah]

The lack of trying is what's getting me. Lord knows at what he's making he should at least be thinking about what he's doing. There has been at least three cases the last week or so where he looked like he just gave up.

Yeah yeah, the ball lost in the sun could happen to anybody, but combined with his lack of hustle makes it suspect.

The getting picked off second was even more annoying. Granted having the batter swing through a bunt makes it more possilbe, but if a player is 100% healthy, experienced, not slow, and paying attention, this shouldn't happen.

Both "happens to anybody" plays happened on back to back days and cost the Cubs 2 wins, So it was a brighter spotlight.

I still like him and give him credit for playing when he is still obviously hurting. (can anyone say Pryior)
But the manager must take this into account.

[Arrian]

If the Cubs have a superior LFer on hand, or if Soriano's playing risks aggravating his injury, then by all means sit him.

Otherwise... wtf?

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Another thought: the guy is nursing a leg injury. Perhaps that's why he looks like he's loafing.

This happens with other guys too. They get ripped for not trying hard enough when they're in fact under orders to not blow out their hamstring or somesuch.

EDIT: from a 4/18 "under the knife" column at Baseball Prospectus:

The Cubs placed Soriano on the DL with a calf strain...

The Cubs will be careful with Soriano in his return, dealing with it much the same way they did with his previous leg injuries, telling him to ease up and keeping him out of running situations. I'll say this again so that no one misunderstands—they'll tell him not to run all-out, which has nothing to do with his hustle and is the smart thing to do. Soriano shouldn't miss much past the minimum, but his running and range will be affected for longer than that....

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

He may look like his loafing, but if he realizes he won't be getting to a ball and thus is playing the carom, that's a smart move. That, and I'm sure Arrian is right that he's being told not to overextend himself by manager or doctors.

[rah]

Granted we all are aware that he was injured and despite claims to the contrary he's not 100%.

But if the MANAGER and doctors are telling him to take it easy then it even makes less sense for the MANAGER not to take that into consideration when thinking about a defensive replacement or a pinch runner in late game situations