MLB - 2008 Season

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Arrian
Well, not forever. But when he's in his early twenties (red zone for pitcher injury), I'm perfectly ok with being extra cautious.

And that's the key. It's just one loss. Early 20s pitcher with massive upside is greater than that.

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by snoopy369
I don't see why keeping a pitcher in after a short delay (53 minutes) is a big deal. He may or may not be as effective (harder to keep it up) but it's not like it's that much longer than just one big inning by the batters (which also can have a slightly negative effect, but usually isn't enough to take out a pitcher).

I agree 100% and this is an example of where someone probably read some stat sheet instead of using the managerial discretion that managers are paid to use.

Baseball is much more than a computer simulation game. Some pitchers might not be able to handle a 53 minute delay, some might. It's almost like politics nowadays. If you don't go along with the prescribed methodology you are questioned. So everyone goes along with it so as not to be criticized.

Are we to believe that EVERY pitcher can /should only throw 100 pitches? Aren't ther some that we should know ahead of time can only throw 70 effective pitches and aren't there some that can -season long, career long - throw more than 100. Is every human arm built the same?

It seems to me that there are some pitches that you would want to get a good 60 pitches out of and head for the bullpen and some that you might want to get 115 out of. But managers seem to be obsessed with the 100 pitch number as if everyone were the same.

[EPW]

I agree 100% and this is an example of where someone probably read some stat sheet instead of using the managerial discretion that managers are paid to use.

What statistician said that? And if there is statistical evidence that a pitcher sitting out long periods increases the chance of injury and/or
decreases performance, why shouldn't a manager take that information into account?

Baseball is much more than a computer simulation game. ... If you don't go along with the prescribed methodology you are questioned.

And sabremetrics challenges the "prescribed methodology" by examining the methodology analytically and deducing what works and what doesn't. This in no way reduces the game to a computer simulation.

Snoopy that is exactly why I argued against "sabermetrics" in fantasy. Not that it is exactly the same situation but it is exactly the same mentality.

What mentality? The mentality to win more games than the other teams in your division? Isn't that the goal?

[EPW]

Something seems to have changed

[Deity Dude]

I read my post and changed it LOL

On second thought I didn't want to bring up the whole fantasy argumetn again but you were too quick.

[EPW]

Originally posted by Deity Dude
Are we to believe that EVERY pitcher can /should only throw 100 pitches? Aren't ther some that we should know ahead of time can only throw 70 effective pitches and aren't there some that can -season long, career long - throw more than 100. Is every human arm built the same?

I recommend that you read this article:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=148

You are partially correct, pitchers tend to tire around 100 pitches,but it varies between different pitchers., and older pitchers can usually pitch more pitches. Young pitchers are at higher risk of injuries when they pitch too much.

[Deity Dude]

I havn't read it yet but I am certain that it will tell me that EVERY pitcher can not throw more than a certain amount of pitches or something of the sort. In response I would like to bring up Nolan Ryan, Bob Gibson Juan Marachail etc etc.

Now I agree some great pitchers were ruined by pitching too much. Denny McLain might be the best example. 31-6 in 1968 but couldn't throw a fast ball by the World Series. 24-9 (from memory) the next year but tailed off at the end of the year. 2 years later his arm was gone.

The point is ALL people are not the same. And a true genius maximizes what he has. He uses the 70 pitch pitcher for 65-75 pitches and uses the unusual 120 pitch pitcher to 110-130 pitches saving his bullpen for the lesser. Then uses all of the other pitchers to what they were meant for. The Computer model of one size fits all doesnt work - it only helps.

[Imran Siddiqui]

The point is ALL people are not the same. And a true genius maximizes what he has.

The Computer model of one size fits all doesnt work - it only helps.

Though the model shows general patterns. It may not work for everyone, but there will always be outliers. The question is if you are not sure if a pitcher is an outlier, why take the risk?

[Deity Dude]

So we agree!

BTW I would pay and expect my manager, who goes thru all of spring training if not multiple seasons, to know. And I would expect these highly paid hands-on individuals to make a decision about each individual player as opposed to doing something as simple as count to 100 or read a book.

[EPW]

Reading is unhealthy after all

[Deity Dude]

???

[EPW]

¿?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Deity Dude
BTW I would pay and expect my manager, who goes thru all of spring training if not multiple seasons, to know. And I would expect these highly paid hands-on individuals to make a decision about each individual player as opposed to doing something as simple as count to 100 or read a book.

You mean be conservative with one your franchises greatest future assets? Or just throw him in based on your hunch and if he get injured... well, you thought you knew enough to make a decision about "each individual player".

Let's not forget that Hughes has had injury problems in the past too.

We could, you know... use facts instead of hunches. I'd expect my manger to know and understand the facts (ie, statistical analysis) and push them only when he's 100% sure.

But then again, some people like those who go on their hunches and instincts.. but I don't like President Bush .

[snoopy369]

Guess Jered Weaver has figured out how to deal with the Tigers runners... a CS and a pickoff in the same inning (picking off Granderson no less, with a very sweet move.)

[Arrian]

I agree 100% and this is an example of where someone probably read some stat sheet instead of using the managerial discretion that managers are paid to use.

No. This is a situation where a manager drew on personal experience, coupled with statistical evidence, and made an informed, conservative decision. That's what managers get paid to do. I'd rather that than have the guy reading Tarot cards...

This wasn't a stathead in his grandma's basement (Cashman ) making a decision without considering the specific situation.

-Arrian