AHL- Apolyton Hockey League 07/08: V Blades of Glory

[Asher]

When a clear majority of a team's wins come from a glorified skills competition after the game completes, you know something is wrong with the system and with that team.

[notyoueither]

It's like goals. They don't ask how, they ask how many.

[Asher]

Injuries are killing me this year.

[notyoueither]

1 of Chris Pronger or Scott Niedermayer

and 1 of
Saku Koivu, Chris Drury, Maxim Afinogenov, Brian Rolston

are available. I am looking for a goalie and a winger, or a really good winger. Emphasis on really good.

[Asher]

Niedermayer for Byfuglien?

(I am really trying to resist making a comment about you picking up Nieds and peddling him for trading before he even plays a game)

[Asher]

Flames win their 5th game in a row (in REGULATION too! Imagine that).

Iginla has a 4 point night. Huselius has another 5 point night...

Iginla's now 2nd in the league in scoring with 48, right behind Lecavalier with 51. It really amazes me to go back and recall Sava telling me how much a better player Gionta was.

[Asher]

And Huselius's point total from the last 2 games: 10.

[Guynemer]

Speaking as a Red Wing fan who is convinced that Henrik Zetterberg remains one of the most underrated players in the NHL...


...there is not a doubt in my mind that Iginla is the best all-around player in the league. By a WIDE margin.

[notyoueither]

Thornton, Pronger, and Niedermayer all play and I can't buy net +1 or a PPA.

Sometimes you hate this game...

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Asher
Flames win their 5th game in a row (in REGULATION too! Imagine that).

Iginla has a 4 point night. Huselius has another 5 point night...

Iginla's now 2nd in the league in scoring with 48, right behind Lecavalier with 51. It really amazes me to go back and recall Sava telling me how much a better player Gionta was.

Pick any player and there will be those that are not a fan-- I think I recall that someone was negative of my pick of lecavialier


Take Huselius-- He could score 5 points in each of the next three games and I still would not be a convert-- I just don't trust that he will "be there" when the going gets tough. He was embarrasingly non-existent last year in the playoffs-- I do see him as one of the most amazingly talented offensive stars around-- I just don't trust him

I don't expect people to star every night-- thats unrealistic-- but Huselius had a few too many off-nights for me to jump on his bandwagon just yet


Overall-- great road trip for the Flames-- They seem to have ended the "can't win on the road " jinx of last years

I also hear Primeau was back from injury-- If he could get his game in gear, his size could be a welcome addition

[snoopy369]

You're doing better than you were on friday... I was up I think 7-0 at one point. Goals went from in my favor to nearly 2-1 against... I seem to be able to pick up assists but not goals

[Flubber]

Originally posted by snoopy369
You're doing better than you were on friday... I was up I think 7-0 at one point. Goals went from in my favor to nearly 2-1 against... I seem to be able to pick up assists but not goals

I know that feeling

I have 25 assists this time but only 9 goals-- I haven't checked but I think I lose goals almost every week but do manage to take assists most weeks

My goalies this week were amazing-- even if I did get screwed out of a shutout (I understand it but it still doesn't feel right)-- My problem is that I find there is an ebb and flow so after my goalies being so amazing this week, I fear they will regress a bit over the next week

[Asher]

The Star has a piece of -- I think -- satire.

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/286220

No substituting McCabe

There is no single defenceman on the Maple Leafs roster who has quite what Bryan McCabe offers in one hard-hitting, hard-shooting, offensive-minded, defensively sound package.

[Sparrowhawk]

Woot! 8th place, I think that puts me in the playoffs

Seeing as I am only playing the Pantless Pirates this week , I should be able to climb farther in the standings this week

/me

[Kontiki]

An interesting take:

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071217.wsptryder17/GSStory/GlobeSportsHockey/home

The real rankings of NHL teams
ALAN RYDER

Globe and Mail Update

December 17, 2007 at 3:25 PM EST

When you look at something through the same lens thousands of times you come to accept any astigmatism as if were part of the real world. Such is the situation with the NHL's standings — two points for a win and one point for an overtime loss. The only material change to this lens in decades was the introduction of a bonus point for winning a game after a regulation-time tie.

What is wrong with the standings? The first problem is that not all teams have played the same number of games at any point in time. A second problem is that teams may have played more home than road games (or vice versa). And a similar problem is that the schedule is unbalanced, especially part way through the season. The final problem is that these games represent only a small number of contests. The 'statistical sample' is small and luck can play an important part.

So-called "power rankings" are not the solution. These are, almost always, an opinion, or a committee view, and they tend to mix up the questions of team abilities and "who is hot and who is not".

There are, however, scientific approaches to rating teams. Jeff Sagarin is probably the most famous sports team rater on the planet, but there are a couple of others out there worth of note — Ken Massey and Andy Dolphin .

Here is how the NHL and these scientific methods rank the top NHL teams today:




Rank
NHL (points)
Sagarin
Massey
Dolphin




1
Detroit
Detroit
Detroit
Detroit




2
Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa




3
San Jose
San Jose
San Jose
Colorado




4
Dallas
Colorado
Colorado
Boston




5
Boston
Boston
St. Louis
Minnesota




6
New Jersey
Dallas
Minnesota
San Jose








These scientific ratings rely on complex interpretations of game match-ups and results. Importantly, these methods rebalance the schedule and enable the comparison of teams that have not met (a real issue given the NHL's shortage of inter-conference play). They rely on mathematics like the simultaneous solution of, for the NHL, 30 equations involving 30 unknown variables — something not to be attempted without proper safety equipment.

It is always important to read the disclaimers on product packaging and the fine print on these methods says that they were designed to rank college football teams. In that world mismatches are common and the possibility of blowout games is quite real. To compensate, each of these ratings methods finds a way to discount large margins of victory and, in effect, the ability to win games is given greater weight than the ability to dominate an opponent.

That would seem to be just plain wrong in the NHL. As hockey's pre-eminent league is quite well balanced, a blowout is a meaningful event. Every piece of research I have seen suggests that winning is very highly (about 93%) correlated with goal differential. Teams that can win big are better than teams that eke out victories in close games. Expressed differently, good teams win more than half of their close games but dominate the games that are not close. Furthermore, goal differential provides for a 'statistical sample' is much, much larger than for wins and losses. There is less statistical noise associated with luck.

So goals for and against are a better way to measure a team than points in the standings. Here is what that says about the NHL's standings today:

East
Rank Goal
Differential
per Game Pts Pts
Rank
1 Ottawa 0.90 45 1
2 Buffalo 0.35 33 10
3 Philadelphia 0.23 35 6
4 Boston 0.22 39 2
5 New Jersey 0.15 39 2
6 Montreal 0.09 37 4
7 Carolina -0.06 37 4
8 Toronto -0.06 34 8
9 Pittsburgh -0.06 34 8
10 NY Rangers -0.09 35 6
11 Florida -0.18 32 11
12 Tampa Bay -0.18 31 13
13 Washington -0.39 28 15
14 NY Islanders -0.52 32 11
15 Atlanta -0.81 29 14


West
Rank Goal
Differential
per Game Pts Pts
Rank
1 Detroit 1.22 49 1
2 Dallas 0.39 40 2
3 San Jose 0.34 40 2
4 Vancouver 0.15 38 4
5 Colorado 0.13 37 6
6 Columbus 0.03 34 9
7 Chicago 0.03 32 12
8 St. Louis 0.00 34 9
9 Minnesota -0.03 38 4
10 Calgary -0.06 37 6
11 Phoenix -0.19 30 13
12 Nashville -0.20 30 13
13 Edmonton -0.32 34 9
14 Anaheim -0.43 35 8
15 Los Angeles -0.55 26 15


It's unanimous. Detroit and Ottawa are tops in the league, in a class by themselves. But no rocket science was required to reach that conclusion. My other top six teams include Dallas, Buffalo, San Jose and Philadelphia. Boston and New Jersey slide out of the NHL's top six, although not far. I conclude that the three rating pros think too highly of Colorado.

Buffalo has been awfully unlucky — generally outscoring opponents but coming up short on victories. Chicago has a roughly break-even goal differential yet lags in the standings. Bet on these teams, especially the Sabres, to climb in the standings as the season progresses.

The Ducks (especially), Flames, Wild (notwithstanding the rating pro's methods), Hurricanes and Rangers may not realize it but they are in danger of missing the playoffs. These teams have been fortunate to win as much as they have been. Look for these teams to sag in the standings unless they pull up their stockings.

It looks like it is going to be a long season in Atlanta. And nearly as long for the Islanders, Kings, Ducks, Capitals and Oilers.

This approach does not rebalance the schedule, which is an important thing to do but a lot of hard work. However, it is dead simple. You can play along at home.