NFL Offseason Thread

[SlowwHand]

The picks were a hell of an offer, but with Roy Williams, I still think the Lions are about to change big time.

[Zopperoni]

Mmm, Denver is a playoff-caliber team. Assuming that they'll pick 24th next year, this is the math:

Pick 21 + Pick 24 (next year) + Pick 53 + Pick 85 + Pick 88 (next year) = 800 + 740 + 370 + 165 + 150 = 2,225 points

Edit: including an additional second rounder (as Millen requested) would add 340 points to the sum (total: 2,565 points).

The second overall pick is worth 2,600 points.

[-Jrabbit]

You can also make the argument that Calvin is worth the full 3,000 points of a #1 overall, since he was the consensus best player in the draft. BTW, shame on Denver for trying to pawn off an injured Wilson on both the Giants and Lions. He's been a loyal soldier for them.

Still, overall, I agree that Detroit would get greater benefit from the picks, as their lack of depth has been very apparent when injuries have struck the past couple years.

That said, I can understand their actions. Young Calvin will make their offense very dangerous -- eliminating the ability to double up on RoyW, keeping the 8th man out of the box and thus making the RB the kind of weapon the Martz offense is famed for. They addressed the O-line in free agency. All that's left is to shore up the defense next year.

[Lord Avalon]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
All that's left is to shore up the defense next year.

Right on schedule for the 10-yr rebuilding plan.

[Guynemer]

4-12, here we come.

[OzzyKP]

Another perspective, only Atlanta offered a deal for Johnson but their offer was so weak even I wouldn't have gone for it. Weird.

Millen: Falcons didn't call back

May 2, 2007

FREE PRESS STAFF AND NEWS SERVICES

Lions president Matt Millen says there weren't many significant trade offers for Calvin Johnson, the Lions' No. 2 pick in Saturday's draft.

He said he never spoke with Tampa Bay general manager Bruce Allen, but he did speak with Atlanta GM Rich McKay. The Falcons had the No. 8 pick and were looking to move up.

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"I spoke with McKay prior to the draft, maybe an hour before," Millen told WDFN-AM (1130) on Tuesday. "And he said ... 'You're going to want both twos and a three, and we won't be able to do that.' "

Millen said he made a counteroffer to Atlanta that asked for at least three Atlanta picks, including a second-rounder in 2008.

Millen said McKay told him, " 'That's a little rich but, OK, we'll call you back.'

"And I never heard from him."

The Lions ended up taking Johnson at No. 2 and keeping him. Millen said he laughed at the rumored deal with Tampa Bay that included Bucs defensive back Brian Kelly going to the Lions.

"That came across somebody's Internet thing, whatever those things are," Millen said. "I'm not big on that stuff."

Millen was surprised there wasn't a bigger market for Johnson.

"I thought we would get a bevy of calls like we did in the second round," he said. "In the second round, our phones were ringing off the hook."

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070502/SPORTS01/705020435/1049/SPORTS

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Zopperoni
Mmm, Denver is a playoff-caliber team. Assuming that they'll pick 24th next year, this is the math:

Pick 21 + Pick 24 (next year) + Pick 53 + Pick 85 + Pick 88 (next year) = 800 + 740 + 370 + 165 + 150 = 2,225 points

Edit: including an additional second rounder (as Millen requested) would add 340 points to the sum (total: 2,565 points).

The second overall pick is worth 2,600 points.

The problem is that the draft value chart is pretty obsolete, and the proposed trade, in fact, would have been a King's ransom.

The 21 pick is really good. 21st overall players since 2001:
Nate Clements, Daniel Graham, Vince Wilfork, Jeff Faine, Matt Jones, Laurence Maroney.
Recent 24s:
Willie Middlebrooks, Ed Reed, Dallas Clark, Steven Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Johnathan Joseph.

Those are really good players. Ed Reed is Hall of Fame-level. You can also see three guys who keep the Patriots as perennial contenders, one of the best corners in football, a central cog in the Colts' offense, and the guy who led the league in yards from scrimmage last year. They're definitely not half-bad, and they're almost as good as the #2 overall guys.

That's not even counting the extra second and the two extra thirds. The most important thing about those picks, though, is that you're paying those guys basically nothing. A #2 pick overall probably earns more than all of those other picks put together. I brought this up earlier - Reggie Bush, like Calvin Johnson, was considered a #1 overall-type guy, but was picked second. He's getting paid around five times what Laurence Maroney is getting paid.

The 21 pick turned out better than the 2 pick last year; the Patriots and the Saints both have very good running backs, but there's a huge difference: Maroney has a 9 million dollar contract and Bush has a 49 million dollar contract. The 21 pick turns out better than the 2 pick a whole lot of the time for that reason. 21st overall-type guys give you about 80% of the production for 15% of the price.

With the 21 and 24 this year, for example, the Lions could have taken Brady Quinn and Robert Meachem. Which would you rather do? Pay 50 million for the best WR in college football, or pay 10 million each to a top two QB and a top five WR? I think the two later picks might already be the better choice, even without considering the other three picks in the deal.

In short: Millen is still dumb, although at least he drafted a really good player this year.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
That said, I can understand their actions. Young Calvin will make their offense very dangerous -- eliminating the ability to double up on RoyW, keeping the 8th man out of the box and thus making the RB the kind of weapon the Martz offense is famed for. They addressed the O-line in free agency. All that's left is to shore up the defense next year.

Well this is obviously a Martz pick. He's absolutely drooling and ready to make a new "Greatest Show on Turf". And Martz really only cares about outscoring the opposition. It seems Marinelli has bought into it for this year at any rate.

[OzzyKP]

We'll see.

Like usual this is the best time of the year for any Lions fan. With new trades and draft picks anything seems possible. Everything seems like it is the final piece in the puzzle that will get Detroit on the right track. For those of us who haven't been entirely consumed by bitterness and cynicism there is still optimism left that this team will get turned around.

Of course with history as a guide, come September we quickly realize nothing has changed.

But till then I am looking forward to the Greatest Show on Turf 2.

[SlowwHand]

It's weird. Detroit fans are so beat down, they can no longer see positives. Detroit really didn't do a bad thing. Futures don't mean a lot. Put off now, again? Gamble on players again, but next year? This WR is a sure deal, at least as sure as it gets. I was against it pretty much at first, but watching how the off-season has developed, it really wasn't a bad thing to do.

[-Jrabbit]

Jaguar, your theory on salaries vs. draft position is totally sound; I've been saying the same thing. Problem is, the league is still using the old Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart.

Pne more point...

The problem with those many picks is twofold:
1. There lower the pick, the higher the chance of a bust.
2. Millen would be making the picks.

[Lord Avalon]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/don_banks/05/09/vick/index.html

A quarterback in trouble

Dog fighting latest example of Vick's bad judgment

So now it's dog fighting. For at least the fourth time in a span of about five months, Michael Vick's name has once again surfaced in connection with a story that threatens to further tarnish his reputation, leading to a growing debate about the viability of his future as the face of the Atlanta Falcons franchise.

In recent days, SI.com talked to multiple sources who have known Vick well for years, and they say his troubling pattern of recent behavior reflects a penchant for questionable judgment, an unwillingness to distance himself from the wrong crowd, and a long-standing belief that the rules don't apply to him.

While the sources spoke on the condition that their names not be used due to their relationship with Vick, two of them said they were convinced the quarterback has been involved with the illegal dog-fighting ring that authorities believe they discovered last month while conducting a drug raid on a house Vick owns in Smithfield, Va. Authorities found nearly 70 dogs and various items associated with dog fighting. Vick has maintained that a cousin lives at the house and that he was unaware pit bulls were being kept on the premises.

"He knows what's going on in that house in Virginia,'' one source said. "There's not a doubt in my mind he's involved with it.'' The other source cited Vick's longtime "affinity'' for the dog-fighting subculture, and expressed certainty that Vick was aware of what was happening at the house.

If Vick is found to be complicit in a dog-fighting ring, he will face league penalties that could include a suspension. "It's a matter that will be reviewed under the personal conduct policy at the appropriate time,'' said Greg Aiello, the NFL's vice president of public relations, on Wednesday.

While at last month's NFL Draft in New York, Vick met with league commissioner Roger Goodell, who in essence communicated to him that he couldn't breed dogs for illegal purposes and go unpunished. Days later, in an interview with Boomer Esiason of New York's MSG television network, Goodell said, "I was very clear with Michael. In my mind, that is your responsibility. People living in your house and people on your property is your responsibility. That is not an excuse from my standpoint, and I made that clear to Michael Vick.''

Seven years into an NFL career known for its peaks and valleys, Vick's off-field behavior has become almost as newsworthy as his unique on-field talents. Many wonder if he will ever mature enough to embrace the responsibilities and expectations inherent in being a franchise quarterback in the NFL. More importantly, there are questions about whether his liabilities are approaching a tipping point in Atlanta, and if 2007 could be his make-or-break season with the Falcons.

The portrait of Vick that sources painted was of a "rock star'' athlete who believes the rules don't apply to him and who seems to have little awareness of how his actions and lack of judgment reflect so poorly on the franchise that has made him its public face and paid him millions of dollars in the process.

Vick is not a "bad guy,'' the sources say, but he refuses to take direction from anyone, often fails to recognize good advice when it's offered, and is unwilling to separate himself from bad influences, who are largely friends and members of his ever-present "posse.''

After interviewing those who have watched up close as Vick's saga has unfolded in Atlanta this decade, it's obvious the Falcons organization bears some responsibility for his troubling pattern of behavior. Team owner Arthur Blank has been too quick to either coddle Vick or excuse his actions, even after Vick creates headlines that embarrass the organization.

"Blank is in complete denial, in part because he spent $130 million on the guy,'' one source said. "Vick is his investment. When Vick does something wrong, he has Blank to run to. Blank and his wife, Stephanie, really coddle the guy. They baby him. I think they've enabled the situation to the highest degree. They've not held Vick accountable for his actions.''

Reached Wednesday in Cabo San Lucas, where he's on vacation, Blank refuted the notion that he or his wife have coddled Vick. In the same breath he acknowledged that his team's star quarterback has reached a "crossroads'' stage in his career.

"There's no coddling going on here,'' Blank said. "Whatever is 180 degrees from that, that's the reality. The [financial] investment we've made in him has nothing to do with the way we treat him. When Michael has done something wrong that has been documented, we've had very direct conversations with him. We don't have all the facts of the [dog fighting] investigation, but obviously the story's not developing well. Which is one of the reasons why I asked the commissioner to speak to Michael about the situation and to be as stern as he felt he needed to be.''

Blank said he personally told Vick in recent days that his behavior must change, and not just his words -- or else.

"I would say Michael understands, and I told him he is in essence on a short leash,'' Blank said. "His behavior cannot go on this way. His actions need to be different; his decisions need to be different. He can't just talk about changing things, he has to change his life. He says he understands, and I'm hoping he's being truthful with us and wants to deal with it. I hope he has the personal strength. I think it's very appropriate to say he's at a crossroads.''

Increased accountability is something the Falcons have talked about in connection with Vick's off-field mis-steps in the past, but their non-actions have spoken loudest. Vick reached a point in his Falcons tenure a few years ago when, according to one source, he needed more "kicks in the butt than pats on the back.'' But despite that being obvious, the source said the Falcons continued to "protect Vick from his own mistakes and downplay their significance, rather than get him to recognize they're not acceptable.''

There appear to be at least two key developments that helped sow the seeds for Vick's recent spate of off-field incidents: One was when Vick's mother, Brenda Boddie, moved from his house in Atlanta back home to Virginia at the start of his third NFL season, in 2003. With her stabilizing presence gone, Vick's coterie of friends had more opportunity to occupy his time and agenda. The second, more dramatic change might have occurred when Vick signed his huge second contract, in December 2004. The 10-year extension was worth $130 million and included a $37 million signing bonus.

"Money is empowering to athletes, because you can always spend money to overcome some of the conduct that shouldn't be tolerated,'' one source said. "They [pro athletes] come to think that money can absolve them of almost anything.''

There was at least one common theme among everybody who talked about Vick's problems: Many of his issues come from whom he chooses to associate with, and be influenced by. Vick's entourage "has nothing to do but sit around his house,'' a source said. Vick's mother is said to have moved back to Virginia in part due to her distaste for her son's choice of friends.

Vick accedes to his friends' wishes far too often, eventually giving in to them if they continue to harass him about any particular topic or activity, a source said. "Mike's the classic case of the guy who listens to the last person who speaks to him, whether it's a 15-year-old or a 50-year-old. He doesn't have a barometer about whether it's a good thing or a bad thing. That's how something like the dog fighting can get started. That's where he's so easily influenced.''

Blank said he recently urged Vick to break ties with either friends or family members who have been shown to not have his best interests in mind.

"I hope he'll make some good choices and get on with his life,'' Blank said. "I told Michael, 'You've heard of the saying you are what you eat?' Well, you are who you spend time with as well. Who you hang out with, it's important. It's part of who you are known as, as a person and an NFL player.''

And while Vick contends he was unaware of what was going on with pit bulls at his Virginia premises, his interest in the breed is well known. One source recounted to SI.com how a year or so ago, Vick and a neighbor got into a disagreement about the safety of Vick keeping two pit bulls in an unfenced yard at his home in suburban Atlanta. The neighbor went to Vick's home and complained to him that there were children in the neighborhood and that the dogs were a potential safety issue.

Vick just "laughed in the guy's face and told him to get the hell out of there,'' the source said. "We just kind of knew he was involved with pits.''

That same source believes that Vick will likely end up beating any potential rap in connection with dog-fighting in Virginia. In this case, Vick's entourage could be a help, not a hindrance. According to the source, in other NFL situations like this, someone in the group often steps up and takes the blame. "Vick is the meal ticket," the source said. "If he takes the fall, all the money goes away. They're not going to let that happen.''

Vick's accountability issues appear to be nearing the stage of reaching critical mass in Atlanta, but how the rest of 2007 plays out could be critical to determining his future as a Falcon. Vick out-lasted both of his first two head coaches in Atlanta, Dan Reeves and Jim Mora, who both left town with winning career records.

How new head coach Bobby Petrino deals with Vick's situation will be closely watched. Increased on-field success would likely take some of the focus off the questions about Vick's personal conduct. But even with more touchdowns and victories in Atlanta this season, the spotlight is on Vick like never before.

Dogfighting

If Vick is involved, give him a big suspension.

[SlowwHand]

Give him a job busing tables. He might be good at a new profession.

[-Jrabbit]

Well, he'd be fast, and able to handle quick change-of-direction between tables...

[OzzyKP]

Dog-fighting? Who cares.

Give him his slap on the wrist fine and move on.