NFL Offseason Thread

[SlowwHand]

Did you like the "that guy" turn of a phrase?

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by Guynemer
If Stanton turns out to be Favre, parte deux, I'll eat a Madden NFL box, a la Yin.

Quoted for posterity.

[DanS]

This is great. Miami's got wonderful fans.

That old lady in front is classic!

[SlowwHand]

A little less than enthusiastic. Some shortage pf positive thoughts.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


So it Tom Brady, btw .

Lewin was using the games started stat to define early round QBs only (1st-2nd). Basically, if you have started a lot of games (30+) then you have a good base of games to see stats from (consistency) as well as you are more experienced, and if you played at least precisely 30 then you played every game for three years on your team (or close to it, some teams play 11 of course). If you played less than 30 (even 29) then you didn't start at least one game in your final 3 years, so one wonders as to why ...

If you've started less than 30 games, then you're more of a risk - you could still be good, but you're more risky. Completion percentage for a less than 30 game starter is not a reliable guide - imagine a QB that has two solid years and then fades in his third year. More than one QB has that happen - and clearly that shows something not good for NFL teams (unable to learn, for example). If you've started less than three full seasons, you don't have that consistency baseline (according to his stats, anywho).

However, a seventh round pick (or even a fourth) can and should be higher risk/higher reward. Someone who spends a 1st or 2nd rounder should be spending it on solid picks (or incredibly high reward/moderate risk picks), not on might-bes.

[Lord Avalon]

NFL Concussion Meeting

All 32 teams must send doctors, trainers to meeting

By Peter Keating
ESPN The Magazine

National Football League commissioner Roger Goodell has ordered all 32 NFL teams to send doctors and athletic trainers to a special meeting on concussions, ESPN has learned. And the researchers briefing them will consist not only of members of the league's own concussions committee, but also outside scientists, including a few virulent critics of that committee.

The meeting will take place on June 19 in Chicago, according to documents prepared by the NFL's Committee on Mild Traumatic Brain Injury (MTBI). The league is expecting about 160 people to attend, including Goodell, league officials and two doctors and two trainers from each club.

It will be the first leaguewide conference on concussions; the NFL held a similar briefing on issues surrounding heat and hydration following the death of Korey Stringer, the Vikings' tackle killed by heat stroke in 2001.

"The reason for it is for teams to hear from the committee and outside experts and directly review the work of the committee, ask questions and consider new initiatives as we move toward the 2007 season," NFL spokesman Greg Aiello said.

The NFL's concussion policy has come under intense scrutiny recently, and the conference is the latest indication that under Goodell, the league is changing direction.

Last October, an ESPN The Magazine investigation reported that several of the nation's leading sports concussion experts had harsh criticism for the MTBI committee's research methods and the qualifications and tactics of its then-chairman, Elliot Pellman.

In November, former player Andre Waters committed suicide. The New York Times later reported that, according to Pittsburgh pathologist Bennet Omalu, Waters had the brain of an 85-year-old man, and that multiple concussions had caused or at least severely worsened his brain damage.

In February, former player Ted Johnson told the New York Times and the Boston Globe that he suffers from mental lapses, depression and an amphetamine addiction; he blames concussions.

In January, the MTBI committee added three new members: a neurologist, a neuroradiologist and a neurosurgeon. And on Feb. 26, Pellman stepped down as head of the committee.

The June conference will open with a keynote presentation by Michael Apuzzo, the editor of Neurosurgery Magazine. It will close with remarks by Pellman, who remains the league's medical advisor, and Thom Mayer, medical director for the NFL Players Association, according to an agenda ESPN has obtained. And it will cover several issues where the MTBI committee has taken controversial positions that it continues to hold.

But its roster of speakers reflects Goodell's ongoing insistence that the committee involve new scientists and research in its work. In half a dozen cases, presentations will pair members of the committee with outsiders.

For example, one session will ask whether guidelines on returning injured athletes to play should apply to the NFL.

Currently, the league allows every team to manage concussions as it sees fit, and 52 percent of players who suffer concussions, including a quarter of those who are knocked out, return in the same game. And one of the speakers at that presentation will be Ira Casson, co-chair of the MTBI committee and a neurologist at Long Island Jewish Medical Center in New Hyde Park, N.Y.

Casson is a staunch defender of the committee's research and co-authored a 2005 paper that stated: "Return to play does not involve a significant risk of a second injury either in the same game or during the season."

But the other speaker will be Robert Cantu, chief of neurosurgery and director of sports medicine at Emerson Hospital in Concord, Mass., who has developed guidelines that organizations outside the NFL use to figure out how long injured players should sit out.

Similarly, the conference will present a range of views on studies of retired players. In 2003 and 2005, surveys by the Center for the Study of Retired Athletes at the University of North Carolina found links between concussions and depression, cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease among retired NFL players.

Several members of the committee responded by publicly downplaying those results; Pellman notoriously told HBO's "Inside the NFL", "When I look at that study, I don't believe it." But this time around, Julian Bailes, medical director of the Center for the Study of Retired Athletes and chairman of neurosurgery at West Virginia University, will talk to the team doctors and trainers about his work alongside Mark Lovell, a member of the committee and director of neuropsychology for the NFL.

The teams will also hear from William Barr, who was the Jets' neuropsychologist from 1995-2004, when Pellman fired him. Barr told ESPN The Magazine last year that he had grown concerned that Pellman was cherry-picking which test results to include in league studies to downplay the effects of concussions.

But the committee invited Barr to speak at the June conference, and he will.

"I'll be talking about what the best period is for neuropsychological testing after players are injured," Barr said. "But I am also going to keep asking what data the committee used for its research and why."

The NFL's own study of retired players and concussions, which committee members have talked about for years and which is finally about to get off the ground, will be another topic at the conference. Inside and outside the league, scientists agree that study will offer the committee a further chance to work with new blood.

"We look at a different population [active NFL players] than others," one member of the MTBI Committee said.

"Maybe we've done it differently. Maybe we haven't let them play in our ballpark. But we need to advance the science."

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2857332

Good move by Goodell.

[OzzyKP]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/05/01/nfldraft0507/index.html

"I've got to be the Godfather today," Lions president Matt Millen said last Saturday morning, sitting in the living room of his town house in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn. He sounded full of hope and anticipation. In an hour Millen, a man who badly needed a good day, expected to be fielding calls from three or four clubs and hoped -- in a role reversal for Don Corleone -- that someone would make him an offer he couldn't refuse in exchange for the No. 2 pick in the NFL draft.

It never came. At 12:20 p.m., after the Raiders opened the draft by selecting LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, the Lions went on the clock, prepared to use their full 15 minutes to listen to suitors.

With Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson, widely considered the best receiver to come along in years, there for the taking, all eyes went to the phone console in Millen's office. "Don't do anything with the pick until you talk to me," Redskins owner Daniel Snyder had told him on Thursday. Dallas owner Jerry Jones and Millen had talked at length before the draft, with Millen explaining what he was looking for: high-round picks, plus a starting player. Millen thought he might also hear from general managers Rich McKay of the Falcons and Bruce Allen of the Buccaneers, both of whom he'd spoken to late in the week.

A month earlier Denver had offered two first-round picks, a second-rounder and two third-rounders, plus veteran linebacker Al Wilson, but when the Broncos wouldn't substitute another second-round pick for the injured Wilson, Millen turned them down. With that, the bar was set high.

Two minutes passed. Four. Eight. Not a single ring. And Millen wasn't going to make any calls. In the macho world of NFL deal-making, to do so when you're on the clock is the ultimate sign of desperation.

Not that desperation hasn't been in ample supply in Detroit. The Lions' 24-72 record during Millen's six seasons -- worst in the NFL over that span -- partly reflects his poor drafts. Johnson would be the fourth receiver Detroit had taken in the top 10 in the last five years. Two were abject failures -- the injury-plagued Charles Rogers (2003) and the uninterested Mike Williams ('05), who, fittingly, was dealt to Oakland later on Saturday. Quarterback-of-the-future Joey Harrington, the No. 3 pick in '02, also flopped.

With six minutes remaining, Millen clapped his hands. Why delay the inevitable? "Get [Johnson] on the phone," he barked. An aide handed Millen the phone.

"Remember what I told you when you visited here, that you wouldn't get past the Number 2 pick?" Millen asked Johnson.

"I remember," Johnson, at the draft in New York City's Radio City Music Hall, replied.

"Well, you're not getting past the Number 2 pick. Congratulations. You're a Lion."

If Johnson's as good as advertised -- a physical 6'5", 239-pound receiver with sprinter's speed who loves to play the game -- Millen did the right thing by setting the trade bar high. But he shouldn't have been surprised that no offer materialized. A team picking in the top 10 used to be able to trade down for a package of picks and/or players, but this was the third straight year no such deal was made. Why? The disparity in payouts to rookies at the top of the draft has grown more pronounced as the NFL salary cap has risen from $85.5 million to $109 million since 2005. A mere two-slot move up by Tampa Bay, from fourth to second, would have cost the Bucs an additional $3 million per year, minimum, in player compensation, plus at least two second-round selections. The fact that no one moved up for a such a highly touted player as Johnson is a sign that the days of top-of-the draft trades may be over.

Which helps explain all the deals that came later. For Millen the action started in the second round. He held the 34th pick and had his eyes on Michigan State quarterback Drew Stanton, whom the Lions had graded very close to Notre Dame's Brady Quinn. The Bills, eager for Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny, offered second- and third-round picks for the 34th. Millen made the trade and got Stanton at No. 43. He'll be groomed to be Detroit's 2008 starter.

A day earlier the Raiders called -- for the fourth time in April -- to inquire about Lions backup QB Josh McCown, whom they wanted to hold the fort for Russell. And the Titans had expressed interest in Williams, hoping offensive coordinator Norm Chow, who coached the receiver at USC, could rekindle his fire. Now that he had Stanton, Millen called Raiders coach Lane Kiffin, offering McCown and Williams for Oakland's fourth-round pick, 105th overall. Kiffin balked. "O.K.," Millen said, "you take McCown. I'll send Williams to Tennessee." Kiffin asked for a few minutes, then called back and said the Raiders would take both for No. 105.

Millen, who'd started the day with nine picks, had the currency to swing deals for two more second-rounders. He sent New Orleans and Baltimore two picks each for their Nos. 58 and 61 choices, respectively, and got the players coach Rod Marinelli wanted to improve on the league's 28th-ranked defense: lithe pass rusher Ikaika Alama-Francis of Hawaii and playmaking safety and special-teamer Gerald Alexander of Boise State. When the trading frenzy was over -- four deals in three hours -- Lions vice chairman Bill Ford Jr. turned to Millen and said, "Where was all this activity in the first round?"

"I've got goose bumps," Detroit offensive coordinator Mike Martz said on Saturday night, already plotting plays to take advantage of Johnson's skills. "I've never been so excited for a season to start." The orchestrator of the Greatest Show on Turf as coach of the Rams eight years ago, Martz took out a sheet of paper and drew a formation he expected to become a staple of his 2007 game plan: Roy Williams (the No. 7 pick in 2004) wide left, free-agent pickup and former Ram Shaun McDonald in the left slot, Mike Furrey (who combined with Williams for 180 catches and 2,396 yards last year) in the right slot and Johnson set wide right. "In this formation," Martz said, "you're going to get either Roy or Calvin deep, with no safety help. How do you defend that? Maybe Shaun on a shallow curl and Furrey down the field on a post taking the safeties with them." Marinelli said scatback Tatum Bell, acquired from Denver, should flourish in formations like this one, with the defense spread and running lanes open.

"This is the day," Martz said, "the franchise turns around."

Millen, too gray for 49, wasn't gloating. He's heard the fans calling for his ouster, with their Millen Man March and their chants at Ford Field. But at least he can laugh at himself. Last Christmas he gathered with his wife and four children in their living room. "Look, Dad," said daughter Marianne, pointing to the top of the Christmas tree, where an angel held a handwritten sign: fire millen.

Millen was brought up to stick with a job until it was finished. A visitor noted that while Ford Motor Company has spun through CEOs while losing billions, grandfatherly team owner and company scion William Clay Ford has stuck with Millen. "Yeah, I'm shocked," Millen said. "Shocked Mr. Ford didn't put his foot up my rear end at some point. Sometimes I look around and say, How did this happen? You know Schleprock on The Flintstones, the guy with the black cloud over his head all the time? That's us. But not for long. Finally, we've got the right coach. And now we've got Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, and they can jump over that damn black cloud."

In Detroit, a city whose renaissance plans always seem to fall short, the proof is in the winning. Millen has always talked a good game. Now the team he's put together has to play one.

[Jaguar]

Even though Wilson was injured, he's still stupid not to take two firsts, a second, and two thirds.

[DanS]

Agreed. Two firsts, a second, and 2 thirds in this draft would have been very good. (Plus a veteran starter.) Much better than choosing a WR at #2.

[Lord Avalon]

[Zopperoni]

"Congratulations. You're a Lion."

I think Johnson's heart must've skipped a few beats when hearing that.

[OzzyKP]

Oh great, heart palpitations, another Lion's draft pick destined to go straight to injured reserve...

[Guynemer]

When I read this...

A month earlier Denver had offered two first-round picks, a second-rounder and two third-rounders, plus veteran linebacker Al Wilson, but when the Broncos wouldn't substitute another second-round pick for the injured Wilson, Millen turned them down.

...I had a stroke.

[reismark]

Couldn't expect anything less from Millen. Nothing but the shiniest, brightest stupidity.

[-Jrabbit]

Those Denver picks would have been split between this year and next. I wonder how that works our on the old Trade Value Chart...