NFL Offseason Thread

[Imran Siddiqui]

The QBs we are discussing all had a good amount of starts and at worst were 1 game away from the "magical" 30.

Though, as for Stanton, from the same source:

Teams looking for a QB in the second round should give Drew Stanton a long look. His play at Michigan State was uneven at best, but he has prototypical size, a strong arm and excellent mobility. Though he didn’t start many games in college (29), he did complete 64.2 percent of his passes. It’s tough to say too much about second-round QBs because there have not been many in recent years, but based on the limited data, completion percentage seems to gain greater importance in the second round. I wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on Stanton, especially given his erratic play at Michigan State, but he has all the tools to be a quality NFL starter and could be a good value in the second round.

[DanS]

Why not just find a different source? Google is a powerful tool, after all. This one doesn't support your statement that...

And generally it is completion % that determines how well a QB will play at the next level (of course varied for strength of opposition, etc).

He mentions games started as another, perhaps more important factor, and doesn't mention any adjustments based on strength of schedule, etc.

[-Jrabbit]

Interesting that the Bears' 1st rounder, TE Greg Olsen, is a Drew Rosenhaus client...

[Ming]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
Interesting that the Bears' 1st rounder, TE Greg Olsen, is a Drew Rosenhaus client...

While I was THRILLED they took a TE who could catch the ball in the first round... when they mentioned he was a client of Drew, it took some of the joy away

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by DanS
He mentions games started as another, perhaps more important factor, and doesn't mention any adjustments based on strength of schedule, etc.

When you get the people we are talking about, games started isn't as much of a factor, as they all have a pretty good amount of experience. I doubt you'll find many successful NFL QBs who didn't have relatively high completion percentages in the college ranks (I'd imagine a QB with a high comp % and low starts would be more successful in the pros than a QB with a low comp % and more starts - ie, the completion percentage is the more important factor, but I don't have the latest edition of Pro Football Prospectus yet).

And I'd imagine strength of schedule would be a pretty good factor in looking at college QB stats, unless you think 30 starts, and a high completion % in the Big Sky is akin to the same numbers in the SEC. As are other factors, such as the type of offense the QB has run, etc.

From the same site (different article):

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/23/ramblings/stat-analysis/3774/

Tim Couch completed 67 percent of his passes in college. At the time, scouts did not realize that Couch was playing for a certified offensive genius, Mike Leach, who now routinely produces 65+ percent passers at Texas Tech.

Football Outsiders definitely do consider other factors at play.


In addition:

Cutler has also been quite consistent over his four years. Kyle Boller was a four-year starter too, after all, and so far he’s been a bust. Like Cutler, Boller skyrocketed up draft boards due to a solid senior season and spectacular workouts. But Boller only completed 45 percent of passes prior to his senior year, and despite completing 53 percent as a senior finished his career under 50 percent. That’s not quite as bad as scoring a six on the Wonderlic, but it should still be a red flag for NFL general managers. Cutler, on the other hand, was a 56 percent passer heading into his senior year and completed 59 percent as a senior.

When you got players who are fairly similar in terms of game play experience, you look towards completion percentage and take into account other extraneous factors (type of offense, opposition strength, etc).

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
The QBs we are discussing all had a good amount of starts and at worst were 1 game away from the "magical" 30.

Though, as for Stanton, from the same source:

Teams looking for a QB in the second round should give Drew Stanton a long look. His play at Michigan State was uneven at best, but he has prototypical size, a strong arm and excellent mobility. Though he didn’t start many games in college (29), he did complete 64.2 percent of his passes. It’s tough to say too much about second-round QBs because there have not been many in recent years, but based on the limited data, completion percentage seems to gain greater importance in the second round. I wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on Stanton, especially given his erratic play at Michigan State, but he has all the tools to be a quality NFL starter and could be a good value in the second round.

How many star WR's are currently playing as alumni of Michigan State? Ok. Have there ever been any?
I'm going to use a reference near and dear to Imran's argument about Vick. If you have no one to throw to, it cuts down on your abilities. Might that be why he "took the weight of the world on his shoulders" and tried to "force passes"?
I'm not a fan, and really don't know jack about the guy, other than he reads to me to be like Favre.
Some of you say Grossman, which God forbid...

[-Jrabbit]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
How many star WR's are currently playing as alumni of Michigan State? Ok. Have there ever been any?

Amazingly, there's a searchable database for that info, 1982 onward.
YEAR - ROUND - PLAYER - TEAM
1983 5 Otis Grant, L.A. Rams
1984 2 Daryl Turner, Seattle
1987 1 Mark Ingram, N.Y. Giants
1989 1 Andre Rison, Indianapolis
1991 7 James Bradley, Indianapolis
1992 2 Courtney Hawkins, Tampa Bay
1996 2 Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina
1997 4 Derrick Mason, Tennessee
1997 6 Nigea Carter, Tampa Bay
2000 1 Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh
2000 4 Gari Scott, Philadelphia
2002 5 Herb Haygood, Denver
2003 1 Charles Rogers, Detroit

So, no one worth mentioning since Burress. Certainly no MSU WRs drafted this year.

[SlowwHand]

I equate Rison with Buffalo. Ingram was a decent player to have around.

[Guynemer]

If Stanton turns out to be Favre, parte deux, I'll eat a Madden NFL box, a la Yin.

[SlowwHand]

And I'll pay a quarter to watch.

[Japher]

will the game still be in the box?

[DanS]

Imran: None of the items you quote support your assertion...

And generally it is completion % that determines how well a QB will play at the next level (of course varied for strength of opposition, etc).

If you would have said that completion rate is one important factor in determining how well a QB will play in the NFL, we would have no quarrel, and you would be able to find plenty of support for that assertion on the web, including on that site.

[Japher]

I think the history of QBs acquired via the draft has shown that a good QB is hard to find. Most QBs are rather made in the NFL (or other professional leagues), not college. Why? I have no idea, I'm not a coach. IMO, THE important factor in determining how well a QB will play in the NFL is adaptability. QBs need to be smart, instinctive, have a decent arm, be tall enough to see over the line, and have an ease that demands the respect of the team such that they make them a leader. For this reason I think that dude from BYU was good pick to be taken over that dude from OSU. Mormons are great at presenting morals, taking the high ground, being selfless, and not placing any of these restrictions on others... thus making them good leaders. Yes, I'm generalizing, but I'm a Niner fan, and Steve Young rocked.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by DanS
Imran: None of the items you quote support your assertion...

If you would have said that completion rate is one important factor in determining how well a QB will play in the NFL, we would have no quarrel, and you would be able to find plenty of support for that assertion on the web, including on that site.

So you've basically decided to become pedantic... hooray for you . Go back and read it with completion % is one of the two main factors... if it makes you happy and address the actual argument.

The QBs we are discussing all have a good number of starts and at least around the magical 30 number. So what is the biggest factor left? Completion percentage. I didn't think when talking about Stanton, Quinn, Russell, etc, I'd have to think about players who have 10 starts.

But whatever.. you can address the underlying point at anytime... if you have an argument for it.

[reismark]

In other news...

Carolina cuts Keyshawn

I'd be shocked if Brett Favre wasn't on the phone with Ted Thompson immediately after reading that begging him to bring Key in...