Politics Thread

[Berzerker]

opening a locked door to allow protesters to enter the building and arresting them for walking in is entrapment

[-Jrabbit]

Entrap? Not one person arrested for their 1/6/21 activities has filed a lawsuit claiming entrapment, nor built a successful defense around it AFAIK.
Now, why would that be?

And you know damn well that Tucker Carlson accused Epps of being FBI almost nightly for several months. And HE knew damned well that he was lying his snobby little silver-spoon ass off.

Let's just see how the lawsuit goes, my dude.

[Berzerker]

I would expect those hundreds of govt assets to help the cops, not entrap people into criminal trespass by helping protesters invade the capital.

at what point did Carlson 'turn' on Epps? The guy is on video inciting criminal trespass and he bragged about orchestrating the riot. What is his defense?

[Berzerker]

snip snip...

[pchang]

This early in the process I think there is room for a Biden challenger. With 39% of Democrats supporting "someone other than Biden" and no real campaigning going on, I think that makes Biden vulnerable in the primaries. I imagine there is much going on behind the scenes testing donor preferences.

As far as Biden vs Trump...Biden was able to mobilize a much larger than normal percentage of the electorate to get out and vote. A lot of that was from ballots that were cast in non traditional ways (mainly due to Covid). Many Red states have tightened requirements for these type of ballots. I tend to agree with that as I think it is important to make sure all ballots are legitimate. Although I do not think there was widespread fraud in 2020, I do believe that there was a large potential for irregularities in the way the ballots were cast. Election integrity is as important as making sure every eligible voter has an opportunity to exercise their right to vote..

So, a few conclusions I think. Biden is unlikely to be able to reproduce the level of voter turnout in 2024 that he did in 2020. I think his age is an important factor here. Second, Election law tightening is likely to suppress more Biden voters than Trump voters...although the electoral impact of that is uncertain as most election law tightening was in Red states. Finally, Trump will motivate his base to vote even more so than in 2020 as he has convinced them that the election was stolen. The mainstream though will turn out less for Trump as more of his legal problems have the facts exposed and people will become more wary of him.

The net is that it will probably be a very close election where excessive amounts of money will be poured into places that were close last time. My opinion is that it is to close to call.

The data appears to show that the Republican attempts to limit voting is only having very limited success.

[pchang]

When did Republicans become the party of Russia? Restrictions on gender assignment seems like a subset of what they really want: the anti-gay law passed by the Duma.

[PLATO]

I guess you didn't include, but I do, that Trump has been demonstrating his fundamental unfitness for office for the last 3 years.

I guess maybe you believe Republicans will fall in line again. That the 40% who don't want Trump will fall in line, to a much greater extant than the 40% who don't want Biden. Not sure that this is the case.

JM

I think most Republicans will fall in line for whoever the nominee is. Same for the Democrats. It is each sides motivation to get out and vote that is the question. Is the "We hate Trump enough to vote when we wouldn't have voted if another Republican was the nominee" greater than the "We are MAGA! Let's keep this election from being stolen!" the greater number? Will there be apathy on either side from voters that don't fall into one of those categories? Which will be stronger, "I think Trump just isn't the guy I can vote for" or the "Biden is a fossil and I don't really give a crap" crowd?

These dynamics can easily change over the course of the election cycle. It is hard for me to believe that Americans would vote a criminal into office, but "spin" and the growing isolation of people to differing views is a major problem.

I sometimes wonder if the real threat to Democracy is the Partisan media on both sides. Objective and detached reporting kept things good for a couple of hundred years but with today's media environment I don't think we can say the independent media is the "guardian" of democracy anymore.

Only people that want to go out and learn the truth will ever get it and that is getting harder by the day.

[Jon Miller]

I guess you didn't include, but I do, that Trump has been demonstrating his fundamental unfitness for office for the last 3 years.

I guess maybe you believe Republicans will fall in line again. That the 40% who don't want Trump will fall in line, to a much greater extant than the 40% who don't want Biden. Not sure that this is the case.

JM

[Jon Miller]

People will come out to vote against Trump again.

If they don't, they deserve to lose their country.

It is still amazing to me that the biggest threat to our democracy in 160 years is such a clown.

JM

[pchang]

Sure. Helping to identify informants and undercover agents poses no security problems at all. As long as you don’t care about throwing those people under a bus.

[PLATO]

There are a lot of people who, for various reasons (like that he is over 80), really want someone else other than Biden even though they generally agree with Biden and definitely agree with him more than any Republican front runner.

The closest person on the Democratic side with name recognition is RFK Jr, but I think most people don't really know him, and I would bet that most of that 17% is "please, someone else rather than Biden" and not "I really like RFK Jr and what he says and I prefer his policies to Biden's policies". The fact that there is another 22% who also say "please, someone else rather than Biden" but know enough to not be interested in RFK Jr is important, I agree.

Honestly, there is still time to select someone else other than Biden. He should just bow out gracefully due to his age.

I think he likely will win against Trump, most people know Trump and don't like him. They already picked Biden over Trump and will again. I am not sure about the rest of the Republicans, even DeSantis who seems to be a bad general candidate. The issue is if someone like Scott or Ramaswamy will get that ~40% to come out and vote for Biden. Not sure.

JM

This early in the process I think there is room for a Biden challenger. With 39% of Democrats supporting "someone other than Biden" and no real campaigning going on, I think that makes Biden vulnerable in the primaries. I imagine there is much going on behind the scenes testing donor preferences.

As far as Biden vs Trump...Biden was able to mobilize a much larger than normal percentage of the electorate to get out and vote. A lot of that was from ballots that were cast in non traditional ways (mainly due to Covid). Many Red states have tightened requirements for these type of ballots. I tend to agree with that as I think it is important to make sure all ballots are legitimate. Although I do not think there was widespread fraud in 2020, I do believe that there was a large potential for irregularities in the way the ballots were cast. Election integrity is as important as making sure every eligible voter has an opportunity to exercise their right to vote..

So, a few conclusions I think. Biden is unlikely to be able to reproduce the level of voter turnout in 2024 that he did in 2020. I think his age is an important factor here. Second, Election law tightening is likely to suppress more Biden voters than Trump voters...although the electoral impact of that is uncertain as most election law tightening was in Red states. Finally, Trump will motivate his base to vote even more so than in 2020 as he has convinced them that the election was stolen. The mainstream though will turn out less for Trump as more of his legal problems have the facts exposed and people will become more wary of him.

The net is that it will probably be a very close election where excessive amounts of money will be poured into places that were close last time. My opinion is that it is to close to call.

[PLATO]

I do have to say that Wray was rather evasive on what assets the FBI had inside the Capital. He didn't say he didn't know...he just would not answer the question. Is there possibly a legitimate security reason he wouldn't let that info out?

[-Jrabbit]

Ray Epps is suing Fox News and Tucker Carlson for defamation after Jan 6 -- repeatedly suggesting that he was an FBI plant, encouraging the insurrection. Specifically:

[h]aving promoted the lie that Joe Biden stole the election, having urged people to come to Washington, DC, and having helped light and then pour gasoline on a fire that resulted in an insurrection that interfered with the peaceful transition of power, Fox needed to mask its culpability. It also needed a narrative that did not alienate its viewers, who had grown distrustful of Fox because of its perceived lack of fealty to Trump.” And so, the suit says, the network—especially personality Tucker Carlson—turned on Epps, “promoting the lie that Epps was a federal agent who incited the attack on the Capitol” even after federal officials had cleared him.

And WTF makes you believe that the federal government should NOT have had hundreds of personnel on the ground with our Capitol under attack? Your "logic" is so backwards, it's impossible to take seriously.

[Ming]

Again... no proof, just opinions.

Here are some real facts. Trump asked people to come... He told them to march on the capital... they did.
But feel free to blame the Democrats and the "deep state".
The crowd was there for ONE REASON.... TRUMP. The man who still claims every day he won an election he lost handily.
but that's OK for Trump, he can still beg for money from his supporters and they will give it him.

[Berzerker]

Total Fantasy... there is NO PROOF of ANYTHING you said.
The one guy that Tucker and others pointed out is suing Fox. And will probably win because there ARE NO FACTS TO SUPPORT THIS BS.
You keep MAKING CRAP UP. Come back when you have some actual proof instead of your feelings.

I saw video of 2 cops guarding a locked door. A guy dressed like a protester came up and told them to open the door, they resisted. A 2nd man dressed like a protester came up and the 2 cops finally stood back as they opened the door. I haven't seen that video since but the whistleblowers testifying about Jan 6 said the FBI field office was told they couldn't have video because it showed assets, possibly assets committing crimes, ordering cops to open locked doors, etc. They're hiding evidence of govt involvement with Jan 6, but I can guess by what the FBI was doing to entrap a few men of questionable mental fitness to kidnap the Michigan guv to smear Trump before the election.

No, Ray Epps isn't suing Tucker. He was recorded telling people to enter the capital, he was present at the breach site, and he bragged about orchestrating the riot. Whats his defense? The govt had over 100 people there, maybe 200 or more.