Prediction Thread: Midterm Elections: How will they go and what do you think will happen after?

[Jon Miller]

My numbers are 4 year averages of the S&P 500.

Basically, if the long term average is an amazing 6 or 8%, if you have a few years with 15-20% with no corresponding increase in productivity (even a decrease in productivity is what has been measured), then it must come down.

Basically, people were irrational for a couple of years. The stock market was too valuable due to hard irrationality. Now it is correcting. Yes, there will be some people who gained and then got out and kept their crazy gains. There are others who are starting now and just losing. But the average is someone who made crazy gains and are now having their crazy gains head towards what you would expect based on productivity and growth and so on.

JM

[Proteus_MST]

I'll say. Have faith in the people. It is where all power in this country springs at the end of the day.

I have faith in the people ... after all a majority of people are Dems ... I just have no faith in the US voting system

[Berzerker]

Biden got 81m out of ~350m, Obama got 70m

[PLATO]

Biden got 81m out of ~350m, Obama got 70m

Yes, but...Did he REALLY?

[Donegeal]

It depends on how you look at. My vote was against trump, not for Biden. Just like I'm sure there were a large number of trump votes where Republicans/Conservatives just couldn't vote for a Democrat, so they voted against Biden. I'd guess there were about 30 million votes for each that were FOR that candidate, with 50 million and 40 million being AGAINST trump and Biden respectively.

[Berzerker]

Republicans actually picked up seats in the House in 2020 so the anti-Trump vote didn't extend down the ballot

I think the 2004 election turnout was much larger too even with 2 miserable human beings running, Bush's war and the disappearing WMD was becoming an issue so the pro-war and anti-war forces were motivated.

[PLATO]

Speaks a lot to how the electorate felt about Trump when voters would vote Biden for Prez and Republicans down ballot.

[Donegeal]

Seeing as trump's endorsement won 92% of Republican primaries and so many of the R candidates saying they'll kill the Jan 6th committee and basically be rubber stamps to trumpism, I'm hoping that the anti-turmp vote DOES go down ballot.

[Jon Miller]

I also.

The US needs a healthy conservative/right-wing party.

The current Republican Party is 40% quisling and 30% monarchist/fascist/reactionary. Thus the Republican Party needs to lose, or die, or something... so we can get a healthy conservative/right-wing party.

JM
(and I would agree that the Democratic Party is not 100% healthy, but some of this is due to the Republican party)

[Jon Miller]

It took something worse than the Great Depression for the Germans to embrace fascism. The US seems to possibly embrace authoritarianism, after seeing a bit of how damaging it was (still not recovered) just because they have bad returns on the stock market one year (despite the mid-term and long-term returns still being very good).

JM

[PLATO]

Democratic party not 100% Healthy? That's a huge understatement. Extremist in both parties are way out of control and controlling their party's platforms. I say we make political parties illegal and only allow local funding for local elections. Kill PACs and dissallow "super" donors. Return the power to the people. Americans are being given two choices and both of them are radical and out of touch.

[Donegeal]

Have you checked out Rank Choice Voting like they did in Alaska? It appears to give less extreme candidates a shot. Something that could bring the two sides closer rather than the current system which is just driving us apart.

[Donegeal]

If it's always going to be "It's about the economy, stupid!" as I so often hear, then nothing will ever be done for the future. The planet is doomed with this mentality.

On the plus side, I was #179 for my district by 8am. I'm usually single digit or in the teens. Higher voter turnout is usually good for Dems. Of course it is also usually good for the party not in power.

Second time in a row I felt I had no choice but to vote all Democrats. I cannot risk voting for anyone that has even the slightest possibility of supporting trumpism.

[PLATO]

Second time in a row I felt I had no choice but to vote all Democrats. I cannot risk voting for anyone that has even the slightest possibility of supporting trumpism.

TDS is pretty bad too. The democrats give Trump life by keeping him and his ego in the spotlight and polarizing voters. There is plenty of support for Trump (as evidenced by the second largest vote total ever) and the Democrats have made a mistake by fanning the flames. A lot of that support would have moved on if the Dems hadn't been so obsessed themselves.

If you want it all to end, you need to support Romney/Cheney Republicans.

[Berzerker]

end Ukraine?

[PLATO]

I agree that is a huge issue with that wing of the party. Very myopic imho.

[Donegeal]

trump is not center stage because Democrats keep bringing him up. He's center stage because, like I said, his endorsement won 92% of Republican primaries. Whether or not you like it, he is the leader of the Republican party.

If we want it to end, Republicans need to stop voting for candidates that get his endorsements.

[Berzerker]

Trump is attacking DeSantis, called him DeSanctimonious... Sure sounds like Trump is gonna run again