Prediction Thread: Midterm Elections: How will they go and what do you think will happen after?

[Donegeal]

Midterm elections are eight days away. I do not recall a midterm election as pivotal as 2022. A lot very close races. A lot of very important races. House up for grabs. Senate up for grabs. Important Governorships. Even Secretaries of State has become a do-or-die vote. Be as specific or as general as you want. Was going to do a poll, but there are too many possibilities. And please, try to retain the decorum typical of this ancient and noble forum!!

[BeBMan]

Democrats can't lose this one. They either win or send folks after Mike Pence to make him declare they won. Or something

[Geronimo]

I am so sick of these two parties. I wish discontent with the foul fruits of the first past the post system would result in some kind of voter rebellion and establishment of a parliamentary system or least instant run off balloting. God the two parties are moronic.

[Jon Miller]

The recent poll shift has me confused and concerned.

I do still see posts about people like Grassley being challenged. And he should be, I had thought he was OK but his behavior in December 2020 and January 2021 was not acceptable. And he is definitely part of the generation who should move on.

I do think though that Florida is gone.

JM

[Jon Miller]

I am so sick of these two parties. I wish discontent with the foul fruits of the first past the post system would result in some kind of voter rebellion and establishment of a parliamentary system or least instant run off balloting. God the two parties are moronic.

I really like what is happening in Alaska.

I think that it is probably not ideal, and that a parliamentary system would be better, but it does seem to be better than most of the US. And I include the top-2 states like Washington and California (I think for both?).

Alaska going with 4, and then doing instant run off, means that you get options (not just two crazy Republicans or progressive Democrats) and it has proven that you can 'win' and get a non-crazy Republican or a non-progressive Democrat (because while a 2 or 3 person group might just be crazy Republicans and progressive Democrats, at 4 it is very likely that one will be something else).

I am, currently, a fan.

JM

[PLATO]

Mid term elections generally go against the sitting President. The fact that so many races are so close is, to me, an indicator of how much the Republican party has to do to regain the trust of the average American. I liked a lot of Trump's policies (and frankly, so did the democrats when we see how many have been continued), but overall the man was a train wreck for the Republican party. Lots of work to do to get over that legacy.

My biggest concern right now with a Republican victory is support for Ukraine. I believe it is absolutely essential to support them and stop Russian aggression. It's hard to believe that as much as the Republicans are called warmongers that the fall of Ukraine could end up on their shoulders because of inaction.

Other than that, a Republican victory will lead to stalemate on the domestic front and essentially make Biden a lame duck for the next two years. While that may prevent some good being done, it could equally prevent some harm. In the end, I think divided government is a good thing as it forces things that have consensus to be done.

[Geronimo]

I really like what is happening in Alaska.

I think that it is probably not ideal, and that a parliamentary system would be better, but it does seem to be better than most of the US. And I include the top-2 states like Washington and California (I think for both?).

Alaska going with 4, and then doing instant run off, means that you get options (not just two crazy Republicans or progressive Democrats) and it has proven that you can 'win' and get a non-crazy Republican or a non-progressive Democrat (because while a 2 or 3 person group might just be crazy Republicans and progressive Democrats, at 4 it is very likely that one will be something else).

I am, currently, a fan.

JM

I despair because these proposals have been out there for decades and in most states and electoral districts/precincts there is no way for them to become law because anyone who could put them to some kind of vote has a vested interest in ensuring they never see the light of day, much less voting for them. Alaskans are lucky this was not the case for them.

[Dinner]

538 is showing Republicans picking up 35 seats in the house while the Senate will have 53 total Republicans. State and local elections also look to be widely swi ging towards Republicans.

[Dinner]

Mid term elections generally go against the sitting President. The fact that so many races are so close is, to me, an indicator of how much the Republican party has to do to regain the trust of the average American. I liked a lot of Trump's policies (and frankly, so did the democrats when we see how many have been continued), but overall the man was a train wreck for the Republican party. Lots of work to do to get over that legacy.

My biggest concern right now with a Republican victory is support for Ukraine. I believe it is absolutely essential to support them and stop Russian aggression. It's hard to believe that as much as the Republicans are called warmongers that the fall of Ukraine could end up on their shoulders because of inaction.

Other than that, a Republican victory will lead to stalemate on the domestic front and essentially make Biden a lame duck for the next two years. While that may prevent some good being done, it could equally prevent some harm. In the end, I think divided government is a good thing as it forces things that have consensus to be done.

Wrt Ukraine Republicans will continue to support it though they will probably tack on anti-corruption measures as part of oversight and make reforms becoming required (I.E. Ukraine must make the following reforms in order to get the cash). The reforms would probably all be stuff the OECD and IMF have been urging Ukraine to do for years but which politicians previously resisted for political and personal gain reasons.

Honestly, that might be a good outcome in the long run.

[Dinner]

I despair because these proposals have been out there for decades and in most states and electoral districts/precincts there is no way for them to become law because anyone who could put them to some kind of vote has a vested interest in ensuring they never see the light of day, much less voting for them. Alaskans are lucky this was not the case for them.

I am not sure on the details of ranked choice voting but I know the only the top two candidates policy they put into effect in California has been a disaster. Basically, the two parties agreed they didn't want any 3rd parties so now no 3rd party candidates can't get ballot access in state and local races.

[Donegeal]

In general, I think we're screwed no matter what.

If the Rs win, they'll impeach Biden (for nothing as they've said they're going to do), impeach Harris (again, for nothing) and install whomever they pick as Speaker. Elections will not matter anymore as the Sec of the various States will just declare their preferred candidates the winner regardless of vote counts, and so many voting restrictions will be put in place that millions of US citizens will be disenfranchised.

If the Ds win, 30 to 40 million idiots will declare the elections rigged and start some kind of civil war. Violence will erupt and thousands will die.

Obviously, I'm rather pessimistic about this.

[PLATO]

Obviously, I'm rather pessimistic about this.

I'll say. Have faith in the people. It is where all power in this country springs at the end of the day.

[Geronimo]

In general, I think we're screwed no matter what.

If the Rs win, they'll impeach Biden (for nothing as they've said they're going to do), impeach Harris (again, for nothing) and install whomever they pick as Speaker. Elections will not matter anymore as the Sec of the various States will just declare their preferred candidates the winner regardless of vote counts, and so many voting restrictions will be put in place that millions of US citizens will be disenfranchised.

If the Ds win, 30 to 40 million idiots will declare the elections rigged and start some kind of civil war. Violence will erupt and thousands will die.

Obviously, I'm rather pessimistic about this.

I love how you believe secretary of state election manipulation is a Republican victory problem but not a Democrat victory problem.

The problem isn't the parties declaring they will abuse secretary of state positions, the problem is that those positions allow for such abuse to occur. Has it occurred to you that such abuse can occur insidiously?

[Jon Miller]

I am not sure on the details of ranked choice voting but I know the only the top two candidates policy they put into effect in California has been a disaster. Basically, the two parties agreed they didn't want any 3rd parties so now no 3rd party candidates can't get ballot access in state and local races.

Yeah, California shows why you need 4 candidates and not just two.

JM

[Jon Miller]

I love how you believe secretary of state election manipulation is a Republican victory problem but not a Democrat victory problem.

The problem isn't the parties declaring they will abuse secretary of state positions, the problem is that those positions allow for such abuse to occur. Has it occurred to you that such abuse can occur insidiously?

The Republicans have been saying they will do that, not the Democrats. The two parties havent been the same for some time. We can argue if it was Trump or Tea Party or Gingrich or Reagan (I don't think so). But some time.

JM