Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Provost Harrison]

I think all of your assessments of material problems are plausible although if the cause is just grid damage, then I think it would take far more than what Russia was able to inflict upon ukraine before similar attacks by ukraine on russia's grid could achieve all of that as a result. I just have been constantly surprised by the concrete evidence of serious devotion of the overwhelming majority of the Russian public to Putin's special military operation against Ukraine and it's led to me generally assuming that Putin won't have public support difficulties any time soon come what may. That said I think Ukraine has made few huge blunders. I suppose the announcement may just be intended to manipulate Russia somehow other than a probably totally failed effort to deter Russian attacks on the Ukrainian grid.

What we see of Russia is what we're allowed to see by Putin. And if people are generally content then dissent tends to be minimal. But everything points to the fact that material conditions for rank-and-file Russians are about to get a lot worse due to a multi-pronged strategy. Remember in these things it looks like nothing is happening...until it does.

[The Mad Monk]

Here's the thing, when attacks from Russia cause damage, it's there for the world to see, because Ukraine lets the world see it. When attacks from Ukraine cause damage, it's there for the world to see because Russian citizens keep recording and posting the videos despite Russia criminalizing it and denying that there's any kind of problem. It's that fear that the Russian government is showing that tells the story.

[Provost Harrison]

Here's the thing, when attacks from Russia cause damage, it's there for the world to see, because Ukraine lets the world see it. When attacks from Ukraine cause damage, it's there for the world to see because Russian citizens keep recording and posting the videos despite Russia criminalizing it and denying that there's any kind of problem. It's that fear that the Russian government is showing that tells the story.

Indeed. And wow have we seen some epic explosions from those oil refineries - and that's just from drone attacks. Those flamingos hitting must be a sight to behold.

[Geronimo]

What we see of Russia is what we're allowed to see by Putin. And if people are generally content then dissent tends to be minimal. But everything points to the fact that material conditions for rank-and-file Russians are about to get a lot worse due to a multi-pronged strategy. Remember in these things it looks like nothing is happening...until it does.

I really hope you're right about Russian attitudes. From anecdotal experiences it certainly looks like you're wrong but it's important to realize how narrow our slice of access to Russia is. I like to believe you *might* be right about them. That would be an amazing, pleasant surprise.

[Geronimo]

Indeed. And wow have we seen some epic explosions from those oil refineries - and that's just from drone attacks. Those flamingos hitting must be a sight to behold.

surely, they weren't more impressive than that enormous Russian arms depot explosion about a year ago?

[Provost Harrison]

I really hope you're right about Russian attitudes. From anecdotal experiences it certainly looks like you're wrong but it's important to realize how narrow our slice of access to Russia is. I like to believe you *might* be right about them. That would be an amazing, pleasant surprise.

Everything is just a question of intensity. If Putin looks weak and his people are bleeding, it's not looking good for him. But they need to feel the pain at home, and especially in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

[The Mad Monk]

Interesting take on Russia and "Dutch Disease".



No, it's not about tulips.

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