Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

My plan for victory would include sending out David Hasselhoff and the Scorpions, chanting "Looking for Freeeeedom" and "Wind of Change" 24/7 along the Sov...uhh...Russian bordah. Then everybody can walk home happily without further bloodshed

[Geronimo]

Interesting bird watching

I think Ukraine needs to keep their eye on the ball and not bother with "eye for an eye" whenever other uses of assets used or reserved for "eye for an eye" would degrade Russian military capabilities more efficiently. By announcing "eye for an eye" they make that politically more difficult domestically and potentially undermine foreign support for no real gain. Russia leadership and probably even the Russian population will *not* be deterred by "eye for an eye" so they might even be tempted to make *more* targeting of civilian infrastructure of dubious military value to ensure that Ukraine is politically compelled to do the same or look weak.

[The Mad Monk]

Both of Russia's major implosions (1917 and 1991) were caused primarily by domestic issues and not directly by military failures (though those military failures, or rather the funneling of the society's resources into those military failures, did contribute). Russia has been recruiting from backwater areas, while also diverting funds from those areas, to spare their power base in western Russia most of the deprivations of war; with the attacks on energy, they can no longer do that.

[The Mad Monk]

Also, Russia has already been lauching most of its long range munitions deep into Ukraine, attacking civilians directly. How much worse do you think that can get?

[Geronimo]

Also, Russia has already been lauching most of its long range munitions deep into Ukraine, attacking civilians directly. How much worse do you think that can get?

I think if Russia could've made it worse (short of nukes) they would have. The real danger in "eye for an eye" to Ukraine is boxing them into having to do the same. degrading Russian military capability or production capability strategically is what matters. this announcement ties their hands and locks up assets thereby ceding some initiative to Russia and most importantly is extremely unlikely to constrain or deter Russia in any meaningful way. It is pointless and a mistake. The best Ukraine can hope for is that it was a minor mistake if the retaliation has some strategic and political impact but it will be retaliation dictated by Russia.

[BeBMan]

Deterring the Black Sea Fleet worked quite well.

[The Mad Monk]

Destroying their energy infrastructure is destroying their production capability. Also their revenue generation. Also reducing fuel available to the military at any given time. Sure, they can steal civilian fuel for military use, but they still have to move it from the production areas in the east to the front lines -- and that's harder to do without pipelines and pumping stations, or the electricity to keep them heated and running.

[Geronimo]

destroying the grid is usually inefficient for degrading military capabilities, even indirectly, because the electricity is largely reroutable and Russia will maintain supply to military needs by cutting off civilian consumption.

[Provost Harrison]

destroying the grid is usually inefficient for degrading military capabilities, even indirectly, because the electricity is largely reroutable and Russia will maintain supply to military needs by cutting off civilian consumption.

Their economy is propped up by petrochemical exports. Without that revenue, everything else grinds to a standstill.

[Geronimo]

Their economy is propped up by petrochemical exports. Without that revenue, everything else grinds to a standstill.

I agree that the refinery strikes are disproportionately effective enough to merit use. I'm pessimistic about the merits of successful Ukrainian strikes on the Russian electricity grid. Perhaps if it were localized to areas where it will genuinely synergize with the refinery campaign such as where large power production is tightly coupled with a refinery site (or to a military site of some kind)?

[Provost Harrison]

I agree that the refinery strikes are disproportionately effective enough to merit use. I'm pessimistic about the merits of successful Ukrainian strikes on the Russian electricity grid. Perhaps if it were localized to areas where it will genuinely synergize with the refinery campaign such as where large power production is tightly coupled with a refinery site?

The one thing that happens in Russia this time of year is that it gets colder. A lot colder. And damaging infrastructure involved in heating and power creates materially uncomfortable conditions, and that's an understatement. So much so that it would be a massive step on the road to destabilising Putin's regime, and that is the true end goal here. There's no appeasement that will stop him, no concession that would placate him and so him coming back at a later date. The long term answer is regime change. And date I say it, this is a damn effective measure in achieving this.

[Geronimo]

The one thing that happens in Russia this time of year is that it gets colder. A lot colder. And damaging infrastructure involved in heating and power creates materially uncomfortable conditions, and that's an understatement. So much so that it would be a massive step on the road to destabilising Putin's regime, and that is the true end goal here. There's no appeasement that will stop him, no concession that would placate him and so him coming back at a later date. The long term answer is regime change. And date I say it, this is a damn effective measure in achieving this.

I think it would reduce support for Putin even less than "de-housing" of Germans in the third Reich reduced support for der Fuhrer.

[Provost Harrison]

I think it would reduce support for Putin even less than "de-housing" of Germans in the third Reich reduced support for der Fuhrer.

Putin's success is predicate on one thing - that the Russian people give blind obedience in exchange for never having to worry about material needs. And a whole lot of brainwashing and propaganda. What happens when his "de facto" social contract with his people breaks down because he's not able to provide the essentials of life. Their ability to refine oil has been dramatically reduced, and this is their lifeline to get funds. Also another thought on power. If there are significant problems with pumping crude oil through their pipelines in cold, Siberian conditions, what happens to said pipelines Geronimo? Also this war of attrition (where Russia only seems capable of lashing out rather than having a coherent strategy) is not working out well for them, the worst harvest for almost 20 years. If they can't export oil, what leverage do they have to obtain food from other exporters? No cash to buy it (let's face it, Putin's "war chest" was down to a 10th of its original size, to 30bn USD from starting at...what...250-300bn? That's excluding sequestrated assets, and that was a couple of months ago too.

So yeah, we need to pump up our support for Ukraine, let them finish the job. While your country behaves in its usual, unprincipled, opportunistic way.

[Geronimo]

Putin's success is predicate on one thing - that the Russian people give blind obedience in exchange for never having to worry about material needs. And a whole lot of brainwashing and propaganda. What happens when his "de facto" social contract with his people breaks down because he's not able to provide the essentials of life. Their ability to refine oil has been dramatically reduced, and this is their lifeline to get funds. Also another thought on power. If there are significant problems with pumping crude oil through their pipelines in cold, Siberian conditions, what happens to said pipelines Geronimo? Also this war of attrition (where Russia only seems capable of lashing out rather than having a coherent strategy) is not working out well for them, the worst harvest for almost 20 years. If they can't export oil, what leverage do they have to obtain food from other exporters? No cash to buy it (let's face it, Putin's "war chest" was down to a 10th of its original size, to 30bn USD from starting at...what...250-300bn? That's excluding sequestrated assets, and that was a couple of months ago too.

So yeah, we need to pump up our support for Ukraine, let them finish the job. While your country behaves in its usual, unprincipled, opportunistic way.

I think all of your assessments of material problems are plausible although if the cause is just grid damage, then I think it would take far more than what Russia was able to inflict upon ukraine before similar attacks by ukraine on russia's grid could achieve all of that as a result. I just have been constantly surprised by the concrete evidence of serious devotion of the overwhelming majority of the Russian public to Putin's special military operation against Ukraine and it's led to me generally assuming that Putin won't have public support difficulties any time soon come what may. That said I think Ukraine has made few huge blunders. I suppose the announcement may just be intended to manipulate Russia somehow other than a probably totally failed effort to deter Russian attacks on the Ukrainian grid.

[The Mad Monk]

If Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy could galvanize the Russian people against Ukraine, why is the Russian government doing its damnedest to deny that such strikes are being effective?