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Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

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  • Dinner
    replied
    Originally posted by Geronimo View Post

    I wonder if they are applying any sort of quick upgrade package or if they are just being sent as RPG fodder? I doubt ukraine will waste modern anti tank systems on t‐62s.
    Russian media claims they are being upgraded but refused to say what those upgrades are. My guess is they are only adding an IR sight and maybe improved gun sites. If they are lucky a radio. I just don't see them spending much on obsolete garbage who's armor won't stop a single modern round.

    I guess even junk tanks are better than no tanks though.

    Leave a comment:


  • Geronimo
    replied
    Originally posted by Egbert View Post

    A possible motive is not an actual motive.
    When is attempting to make such a distinction actually helpful to explain anything?

    could you clarify the difference between observing a possible motive and observing an actual motive?

    Leave a comment:


  • Geronimo
    replied
    Originally posted by Dinner View Post
    Russia is busy pulling up ancient obsolete aT-62s (800 of them) because they just can't get the parts to manufacture enough modern tanks. They are pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point. Don't gete wrong, Russia could still win a long war of attrition if the west loses interest but we're talking about well over a million dead Russians for a phyric victory.
    I wonder if they are applying any sort of quick upgrade package or if they are just being sent as RPG fodder? I doubt ukraine will waste modern anti tank systems on t‐62s.

    Leave a comment:


  • Geronimo
    replied
    Originally posted by BeBMan View Post
    I'm wondering if the new Russian offensive has started or not. With an exact date we would be able to easily calculate the end of this war, which would then be three days later.
    Even now I can't see ruling out the possibility. Ukraine's astonishing success is based on a huge variety of lucky breaks, fragile strengths and unreliable advantages.

    Leave a comment:


  • BeBMan
    replied
    Originally posted by Dinner View Post
    Don't gete wrong, Russia could still win a long war of attrition if the west loses interest but we're talking about well over a million dead Russians for a phyric victory.
    Indeed keeping the war going, and hoping that support for Ukraine dries up seems to be their game now.

    On the ground they don't seem to learn much from previous mistakes tho. Recently they reported a gain of 2km in four days as some kind of an improvement. This would be 500m/day on average. In other words with human wave attacks and arty barrages Russia is basically reenacting WW I

    Otoh mechanized assaults like that one recently at Vuledar ended in heavy losses, even Pro-Russian commentators are saying this.







    Leave a comment:


  • Egbert
    replied
    Originally posted by Geronimo View Post

    The pipeline is not actually destroyed. So long as the repair costs are less than the liabilities, you have motive.
    A possible motive is not an actual motive.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dinner
    replied
    Russia is busy pulling up ancient obsolete aT-62s (800 of them) because they just can't get the parts to manufacture enough modern tanks. They are pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point. Don't gete wrong, Russia could still win a long war of attrition if the west loses interest but we're talking about well over a million dead Russians for a phyric victory.

    Leave a comment:


  • BeBMan
    replied
    I'm wondering if the new Russian offensive has started or not. With an exact date we would be able to easily calculate the end of this war, which would then be three days later.

    Leave a comment:


  • N35t0r
    replied
    Originally posted by Serb View Post
    Look at modern Grozny 25 years after the war.
    Still not back to it's 1989 population numbers.

    Leave a comment:


  • My Wife Hates CIV
    replied
    Originally posted by Serb View Post

    Serb is a typical Russian, so - nope, MWHC!

    How is your bunker doing? Is booze room still full?
    my bunker is well. my Camero is warm and fuzzy. it is filled with the captain. OH! and also. another 18 holes today. MHLC beat me by 1 shot. i had a penalty shot hole 17. i had a bad shot hole 18. dang. but it was a good day. she (MHLC) did have a hole in one! par 3. it was nice.

    Leave a comment:


  • pchang
    commented on 's reply
    Shhhh - don't pester him with facts. If the cognitive dissonance breaks, it might kill him.

  • Geronimo
    replied
    Originally posted by Serb View Post
    Absolute majority.

    It prevented an Ukranian fullscale invasion of Donbass and complete genocide of Russians there.

    Look at modern Grozny 25 years after the war.

    We never cared if they like us or not, as long they don't sream "knife the Moskals, hang the Moskals" as they did at Maidan in 2014 and still doing.
    Some things are simply not acceptable.

    See above.
    Obviously, the media where you live is claiming that the Ukrainian state was pursuing genocide of ethnic Russians. Why do you believe this? Does that make any sense? If Zelensky were living in the Donbass from 2014 to 2022 would he have been a target of the genocide campaign? He was elected president of Ukraine however. Isn't that odd? Wouldn't that be like a Jew being elected Chancellor in the Third Reich?

    You have doubtless been shown tons of video footage of Ukrainians expressing hate and resentment towards Russia. The Holodomor is living memory. Russia has never stopped trying to strongarm Ukraine. It would use carrot and stick but there was always a stick. That's precisely the kind of environment in which those kinds of over-the-top expressions of hate proliferate. This expression of resentment is a Hell of a long way from endorsing genocide of an ethnicity in their own country and even further from possessing the power to pursue such a goal. Again, how in the hell would a Russian-as-first-language speaker ever get elected to power in a state where it was possible to implement genocide of Russian speakers as state policy?

    Also, you like how Russia handled Chechnya. You look at the shiny new buildings and say "Isn't this great?! Look at what Russia has done for Chechnya!". Upwards of 250,000 civilians died in Chechnya.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2005/...-killed-300000

    The entire Republic has a population of barely 1.5 million people Serb!

    You are endorsing a formula of action in Ukraine which would predict 6 to 7 million civilian deaths as a laudable response to a claimed total of 14,000 Ukrainian ethnic Russians.

    How is that not sick and depraved?

    Leave a comment:


  • Geronimo
    replied
    Originally posted by Serb View Post
    The one who used Chemical and Bilogical weapons against Vietnam.
    You believe that crap about the US using bio-weapons in Vietnam?

    The USSR was also accused of using biological weapons. Supposedly, the Soviet Union supplied biological weapons, mainly fungal toxins (Mycotoxins) to government forces, to kill dissident tribal people and enemy soldiers in Laos, Cambodia, and Afghanistan. It was claimed that the US had obtained good evidence that in addition to a traditional lethal chemical agent, three potent Mycotoxins had been used. The evidence came from the analysis of leaf and stem samples from Cambodia which revealed the use of high levels of mycotoxins. The levels detected were up to twenty times greater than any natural outbreak. Between 1979 and 1981 there were a lot more reports of incidents in which fungal toxins were being used against Laotians and Cambodian villagers.

    Two major publications on mycotoxin weapons were issued by the US State Department in 1982. The first report referred to 261 separate attacks in Laos in which 6,504 deaths are alleged to have occurred and 124 attacks in Cambodia causing the death of some 981 persons. The second report issued by the US State Department alleged the use of mycotoxins and provided the results of analyses on blood and urine samples obtained from the victims. By analysis of two contaminated Soviet gas masks acquired from Afghanistan the evidence of mycotoxins use was confirmed. Casualties caused by mycotoxins use are not known in Afghanistan.

    As for chemical weapons, according to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), this can be any chemical compound intended as a weapon or its precursor that can cause death, injury, temporary incapacitation or sensory irritation through its chemical action. Even by that broad definition agent orange was not a chemical weapon. It was a noxiously dangerous insidious substance, but its harm was incidental to its use not by any stretch the motive or primary effect of its use. The US military routinely exposed its own personal as much Agent orange as they did "the enemy". Not generally how weapons are used eh?

    Question for you Serb. Would the truth or falseness of any of these bioweapon or chemical weapon accusations (none of which are confirmed) have any relevance to the defensibility of a massive special operation against Ukraine?





    Last edited by Geronimo; February 12, 2023, 16:35.

    Leave a comment:


  • giblets
    replied
    Originally posted by Serb View Post

    How can I properly adress to a state like USA or Russia (it or she?).

    In Russian "Russia" and "America" is a "she", what about USA in English?
    Countries don't have a gender in English unless you're engaging in personification.

    Leave a comment:


  • Serb
    replied
    Originally posted by My Wife Hates CIV View Post

    it's just serb. MWHC has worked next to many russian sailors. it's just serb.
    Serb is a typical Russian, so - nope, MWHC!

    How is your bunker doing? Is booze room still full?

    Leave a comment:

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