Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

Pchang, that is actually a good thing as for at least the last year Putin has been refusing to engage in prisoner swaps. So, for Ukraine, it is good he has finally been forced to relent.

[The Mad Monk]

Especially considering he is trading mostly hardened soldiers for mostly untrained kids.

[BeBMan]

Not bad for a country that Putin thinks doesn't exist to get him to negotiate POW swapses.

[The Mad Monk]

Meanwhile, in a clearly unimportant backwater nowhere near a line between Moscow and St. Petersburg, something went BOOM.

[The Mad Monk]

Estimated 1 kiloton blast, btw. The Beirut fertilizer blast of 2020 was 1.1 kt.

[Dinner]

Meanwhile, in a clearly unimportant backwater nowhere near a line between Moscow and St. Petersburg, something went BOOM.

It is funny how Russia keeps experiencing "smoking accidents". That is the excuse Putin kept blaming for drone strikes blowing up stuff in Russia.

[Dinner]

Estimated 1 kiloton blast, btw. The Beirut fertilizer blast of 2020 was 1.1 kt.

Sounds like quite the party.

[The Mad Monk]

Two more BOOMS have occurred. A second ammo dump 10 miles from the first one, and a third near Krasnodar, a city in southern Russia across the way from Crimea.

[BeBMan]

Just as Putin tries the good old nuke scare again, this kind of BOOM is undermining the whole exercise somewhat:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/24/russias-new-sarmat-missile-suffered-catastrophic-failure-researchers

[The Mad Monk]

One good test waaaaay back in 2018, all BOOMs since.

[Geronimo]

One good test waaaaay back in 2018, all BOOMs since.

I wonder why this is difficult after so many earlier reliable rocket families.

[Dinner]

If you believe Peter Zeihan he has claimed that in 1985 when the USSR was falling apart the government tried to save money by gutting a lot of technical training and education. Modern Russia never really restored it so much of the population age 50 and under lack basic technical skills. So the old trained cadre from Soviet times have all retired or long ago left the country. Many of the few well educated and trained younger people left the country at the start of Putin's war of conquest in Ukraine. This has resulted in a massive brain drain in Russia.

[N35t0r]

Ever since the 90's, pretty much the only technical field that has had decent salaries has been oil and gas, so there's been consistently fewer and fewer good professionals in other technical fields over the past 30 years.

[Jon Miller]

The USSR (and Russia) had an incredible education system for mathematical studies. I know many incredible algorithm engineers, algorithm scientists, physicists and other types of engineers from states that were part of the USSR in the US, South America and Europe. All left Russia, or the neighboring states, decades ago. Some support Russia over Ukraine, but none want to live in Russia.

JM

[The Mad Monk]

I wonder why this is difficult after so many earlier reliable rocket families.

No great mystery there; it's the same reason that their early warning system failed, their body armor is fake, and the tires were literally coming off their trucks when they initially invaded Ukraine; officials and suppliers lining their pockets with cash after buying second and third rate components, and pencil whipping maintenance documents.