Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

If you believe Peter Zeihan he has claimed that in 1985 when the USSR was falling apart the government tried to save money by gutting a lot of technical training and education. Modern Russia never really restored it so much of the population age 50 and under lack basic technical skills. So the old trained cadre from Soviet times have all retired or long ago left the country. Many of the few well educated and trained younger people left the country at the start of Putin's war of conquest in Ukraine. This has resulted in a massive brain drain in Russia.

[N35t0r]

Ever since the 90's, pretty much the only technical field that has had decent salaries has been oil and gas, so there's been consistently fewer and fewer good professionals in other technical fields over the past 30 years.

[Jon Miller]

The USSR (and Russia) had an incredible education system for mathematical studies. I know many incredible algorithm engineers, algorithm scientists, physicists and other types of engineers from states that were part of the USSR in the US, South America and Europe. All left Russia, or the neighboring states, decades ago. Some support Russia over Ukraine, but none want to live in Russia.

JM

[The Mad Monk]

I wonder why this is difficult after so many earlier reliable rocket families.

No great mystery there; it's the same reason that their early warning system failed, their body armor is fake, and the tires were literally coming off their trucks when they initially invaded Ukraine; officials and suppliers lining their pockets with cash after buying second and third rate components, and pencil whipping maintenance documents.

[pchang]

When generals are driving Maybachs and living in mansions, that money had to come from somewhere.

[Geronimo]

losing high ground like Vuhledar is a big deal. I suppose the whole east may indeed collapse if Ukraine doesn't have something up its sleeves.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2knzxn9x7o

[BeBMan]

Three days it's all over. Ooops.

[BlackCat]

losing high ground like Vuhledar is a big deal.

Yes, an then, in this case, no. UAF is mainly fighting a defensive attrition war an there high ground is good - the russians don't have to worry about defending the site since the ukrainians won't be stupid enough to attack it.

I suppose the whole east may indeed collapse if Ukraine doesn't have something up its sleeves.

I'm a bit curious about where you get your information from because there aren't any risk of the ukrainian lines is about to collapse. Yes, they have left Vuhledar and retreated to the next line of defense placed on high ground a couple of kilometers back, so now the russians have to repeat what they have used almost two years to achieve, probably with the same vast amount of losses.

[Dinner]

I believe he is referring to the fact that Vuhledar is supposedly a railway and highway junction. So logistics get more complicated if that city is either taken or is under artillery fire control.

[BlackCat]

I believe he is referring to the fact that Vuhledar is supposedly a railway and highway junction. So logistics get more complicated if that city is either taken or is under artillery fire control.

According to the map there are neither a railroad nor a higway junction in Vuhledar.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Vuhledar,+Donetsk+oblast,+Ukraine,+85670/@47.7833027,37.2488809,5781m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x40e0ac0fc99f9375:0x40c176da291b20ca!8m2!3d47.779793!4d37.2490235!16zL20vMGd0cTVt?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTAwMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

[Geronimo]

Yes, an then, in this case, no. UAF is mainly fighting a defensive attrition war an there high ground is good - the russians don't have to worry about defending the site since the ukrainians won't be stupid enough to attack it.



I'm a bit curious about where you get your information from because there aren't any risk of the ukrainian lines is about to collapse. Yes, they have left Vuhledar and retreated to the next line of defense placed on high ground a couple of kilometers back, so now the russians have to repeat what they have used almost two years to achieve, probably with the same vast amount of losses.

The steady encroachment on the entire front could precipitate a collapse of the Eastern front if Pokrovsk falls. I already say if Ukraine has nothing up it's sleeve because there just isn't much land to trade for time and resources left between there and the front.
โ€‹โ€‹โ€‹โ€‹โ€‹โ€‹

[Geronimo]

Who's to say Pokrovsk is the primary objective.

It occurred to me a few weeks back that if one was to make the other side believe it was, then larger gains could be made elsewhere - as we're already beginning to see.

If only Ukraine had quality reserves to draw on to plug the gaps, or launch targeted counter attacks against identified weak points...? ๐Ÿค”

Oh wait, they got squandered in the foolishness of Kursk! ๐Ÿ™„

it's a logistical hub with no substitute.

[BeBMan]

I was being unfair on the Germans, as they penetrated to a distance of ~60km during the Battle of the Bulge...

The Ukrainians are losing a significant chunk of their best equipment and units in this 'adventure'.

I think it was naive to expect the Russians to peel away their forces in the Donbas, and that has patently not happened as they continue advance significantly across multiple strategically important areas.

I'm expecting the Russians to blunt the Ukrainian advance in Kursk. Once those forces lose their momentum in enemy territory, they will be dangerously exposed to drone strikes and glide bombs etc.

We're only a week in. The Battle of the Bulge took six weeks.

Time flies.

[giblets]

๐Ÿ‘†

It's taken some of you six weeks to begin to independently understand a situation that was obvious to begin with...

That's quite impressive even by poly standards ๐Ÿ™„

Of course, there are still the stubborn laggards like BC who remains utterly convinced that Ukraine is winning...๐Ÿ‘

How tragic, don't they realize resisting Russia is futile?

[BlackCat]

The steady encroachment on the entire front could precipitate a collapse of the Eastern front if Pokrovsk falls. I already say if Ukraine has nothing up it's sleeve because there just isn't much land to trade for time and resources left between there and the front.
โ€‹โ€‹โ€‹โ€‹โ€‹โ€‹

You haven't presented any links that says the ukrainians are in any danger. About Pokrovsk, it will probably take yet two years before it falls. All what the ukranians has in their sleeve is yet another defensive site that will destroy even more of the russian army.