Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

Gerasimov has been sacked and the head of the KGB/FSB has been put in his place. I suspect this is a mistake as now there is a man more powerful than Putin. At least we know who the next leader of Russia will be if Putin doesn't do well

[pchang]

Just a rumor so far.

[Geronimo]

Isn't it stupid to make your best intelligence civilian a head of defense? How much overlap in experience and skills is that really? Especially given that the entire special military operation continues to unfold according to the plan?

[Dinner]

Pchang is correct that this is just a rumor but Inside Russia is saying he believes it and he has a pretty good record and knows Russia well as he is a Russian. As for why I thought it was risky for a dictator like Putin... Typically dictators want to divide up power and often put unpopular or incompetent people in key positions so that they don't have the ability to over throw the dictator. The KGB/FSB is already the most powerful group in Russia (they were in the USSR too as they lead several coups and their faction controls the country) but now supposedly they will also have unified command over the military as well.

That is the people with the guns. Dictators usually don't want so much power in the hands of other people.

[giblets]

Waiting for MOBIUS to tell us it was a genius master stroke by Putin

[pchang]

How is Mobius exchanging his rubles?

[BeBMan]

...it's all going according to the plan

Didn't work out so well for the last guy who kinda sorta maybe tried that...

True

[Dinner]

Look on the bright side, BebMan. German built tanks are now back in Kursk and that makes Putler sad.

[Geronimo]

Technically right, but in practice totally wrong. The Ukrainians hasn't met any unmanned trenches yet, if they had, they would have steamrolled it. The russians can't cover all the front of the Ukrainian/Russian without decimating their military currently active in Ukraine.

Defences can be substantially "manned" even if that consists of an artillery piece situated at regular intervals just close enough to cover the approach to the defences. if the defences are minefields and tank obstacles it can easily slow the would-be-invaders down enough that they are caught by rapid response teams. So while technically you are correct that the Ukrainians haven't encountered any "unmanned" (as in totally desolate of Russian soldiers of any kind) defences it doesn't change the fact that you don't need an army to meet a would-be-invader to stop them from crossing the defences. WIth the right defence infrastructure, manpower to man a frontier is much less of an issue.

[The Mad Monk]

Interesting question: is this strategically insane incursion into Russia Ukraine's Battle of the Bulge moment...?

One final desperate roll of the dice that ****s their last remaining reserves.

Looks like it to me 🙄

Another interesting question: did Ukraine look at Russia's defenses and think, "Maginot Line"?

A literal end run, leaving the enemy completely exposed.

Looks like it to me 🙄

[The Mad Monk]

To be clear, in my thoroughly amateur armchair general opinion, Ukraine may sweep down behind all those well-prepared defensive works, and if all goes well, take back a good chunk of their own territory in the process. Maybe even all of it. Of course, that's just a pipe dream.

[pchang]

Their incursion is a little too far away for that kind of sweep. They must go through the whole of Belgorod first.

[pchang]

Serb can pick up some extra cash if he can spare some time to dig a few ditches.

[The Mad Monk]

Owerthrowing a legitimate government and establishing a Nazi regime, which sent an army to suppress the righteous uprising against the anti-constitutional coup (inspired, sponsored and supported by YOU) and killing over 15 000 ethnic Russians at Ukraine is a casus belly in my dictionary!

Well, if THAT was a casus belli, what do you call THIS?

[Dinner]

It turns out it was Ukraine which blew up the Nordstream pipeline to prevent Russia from selling natural gas. The pipeline had already been shutdown by Putin as a way to put political and economic pressure on the German government to get them to abandon NATO. I wonder if there is more to this story?

https://amp.dw.com/en/nord-stream-explosions-germany-issues-arrest-warrant/a-69933920

[N35t0r]

It's still unnamed sources, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Also, there were several Ukrainian nationals sabotaging/fighting for Russia (at least at the start of the war), so that alone doesn't really say much by itself.

[Geronimo]

It turns out it was Ukraine which blew up the Nordstream pipeline to prevent Russia from selling natural gas. The pipeline had already been shutdown by Putin as a way to put political and economic pressure on the German government to get them to abandon NATO. I wonder if there is more to this story?

https://amp.dw.com/en/nord-stream-ex...ant/a-69933920

Isn't this saying that private parties from Ukraine masterminded it rather than any part of the Ukrainian government?

I do like that this explanation makes more sense from a motivational standpoint. It was always going to have been incredibly stupid for either Putin or Biden to be responsible for the act.

[BeBMan]

It turns out it was Ukraine which blew up the Nordstream pipeline to prevent Russia from selling natural gas. The pipeline had already been shutdown by Putin as a way to put political and economic pressure on the German government to get them to abandon NATO. I wonder if there is more to this story?

https://amp.dw.com/en/nord-stream-ex...ant/a-69933920

Yeah, as N35t0r sez, just being from Ukraine doesn't prove Ukraine is behind it, as there are folks supportive of Russia in Ukraine.

That being said, if it was Ukraine indeed I would not approve of the method. But the whole pipeline project should have been stopped in 2014/15, when the aggression started, so...

I don't see it as a general prob to buy Russian gas, but it should certainly not have been business as usual after the lil green men showed up on Crimea.