Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BlackCat]

The USA will force the people of Crimea and the Donbas to live under the rule of Azov

wtf

Ah, you seem to prefer that those people live in a dictatorial rule made by putin instead of a free democracy.

[BlackCat]

Yep...we are on the same page.

Meh, there is actually a dark horse in Belarus - as long as Lukashenko is alive and kicking, the northern front will be kind of quiet, but if he dies, noone really knows what will happen since he doesn't have an obvious successor. Either there will be a peaceful takeover of another dictator, some democratic presidency, a joyful integration of the country into the russian empire or maybe civil war. If it end up in a second front it might mess things up a bit.

[PLATO]

PLATO, I was maybe a bit short, so will elaborate a bit. UA manage to get to the Azov sea, destroy the Kersh bridge, knock out russians in the remaining areas that they occupy in the Kherson oblast, get a front line in the west of Crimea starting pounding whatever the russians have of defenses with artillery, drones etc. both destroying defenses but also bleeding out resources - kind of a Kherson II, but on a bit larger scale, so will take longer time.
The real question is if the UA can make an offensive that makes it realistic to liberate the Kherson area. Edit: that is of course not enough - they will need enough forces to make reliable defenses in the east and still have enough to advance in the west.

Yep...we are on the same page.

[BlackCat]

PLATO, I was maybe a bit short, so will elaborate a bit. UA manage to get to the Azov sea, destroy the Kersh bridge, knock out russians in the remaining areas that they occupy in the Kherson oblast, get a front line in the west of Crimea starting pounding whatever the russians have of defenses with artillery, drones etc. both destroying defenses but also bleeding out resources - kind of a Kherson II, but on a bit larger scale, so will take longer time.
The real question is if the UA can make an offensive that makes it realistic to liberate the Kherson area. Edit: that is of course not enough - they will need enough forces to make reliable defenses in the east and still have enough to advance in the west.

[Berzerker]

The USA will force the people of Crimea and the Donbas to live under the rule of Azov

wtf

[PLATO]

Trying to attack on the eastern side would be kind of suicide while the western side isn't that bad. It's mainly flat land that isn't that easy to defend. Add to that it's also kind of narrow without being horrible.

One of the advantages that an attacker has is that they can concentrate force at a particular point. A defender has to cover a much wider area as they do not know the exact location an attack will occur at. The narrowness of the land bridge favors the defender in that they can also concentrate force. In a typical attack, you would want a 2 or 3 to 1 advantage in attacker to defender. The concentration of Russian forces and the fortifications they have built make that a much harder goal for the UAF to obtain. IF thy did break through, the the defenders are once again having to spread out to defend a much larger line. Crimea is both easily defended and easily isolated. It has a strength and a weakness for defense. I think it far more likely that the UAF will try to seal off Crimea and cut off resupply for a while before they will try and penetrate the land bridge.

[BlackCat]

The land bridge is one of the reasons that it is a tough nut to crack. If Ukraine could get past that, then the defense of Crimea for Russia becomes much harder.

Trying to attack on the eastern side would be kind of suicide while the western side isn't that bad. It's mainly flat land that isn't that easy to defend. Add to that it's also kind of narrow without being horrible.

[BeBMan]

I could be wrong, but I think that there might be some cost involved in not shooting down those thingies.

For everyone involved, it seems:

Three prominent hypersonic scientists, Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk, and Valery Zvegintsev, who have worked extensively on Russia’s hypersonic weapons, have been apprehended on suspicion of high treason.

This comes after Ukraine asserted that it had successfully taken down a series of supposedly ‘undefeatable’ missiles.

The arrests have triggered apprehension within Russia’s scientific community. Colleagues of the detained individuals released an open letter expressing their innocence and highlighting the potential risks these prosecutions pose to Russian science.

(...)

The open letter Russian scientists wrote ahead of the arrests, also brought attention to the case of Dmitry Kolker, a Siberian scientist who was arrested last year on suspicion of state treason, despite suffering from advanced pancreatic cancer.

Tragically, the laser specialist passed away just two days after being flown to Moscow. The letter emphasized that such incidents have a chilling effect on young Russian scientists.

Gotta wonder if hypersonic flights through windows are a thing.

Full article: https://www.firstpost.com/world/thro...-12613332.html

[PLATO]

Crimea is probably a tough nut to crack but I could see it being sieged down if the bridge is destroyed, the water cut off, and the land bridge retaken.

The land bridge is one of the reasons that it is a tough nut to crack. If Ukraine could get past that, then the defense of Crimea for Russia becomes much harder.

[BeBMan]

Russian government services site requests ‘ideas for country’s development’ then rejects user’s proposal to ‘end the war in Ukraine’


(...)

Margarita Loginova, a journalist for the independent media outlet Verstka, submitted the following proposals: ending the war in Ukraine, holding fair elections, restoring press freedom, and releasing political prisoners. She added that these measures would “end the outflow of people from small towns, increase citizens’ well-being, and cause people to have more children.” The submission remained on the platform for about 15 minutes and, according to Loginova, garnered 15 “plus-sign reactions in support” from other users before it was removed.

(...)

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/17/russian-government-services-site-requests-ideas-for-country-s-development-then-rejects-user-s-proposal-to-end-the-war-in-ukraine

[Berzerker]

I suspect the people moving into these areas are refugees from the 8 year Donbas war. I cant imagine Russians would support uprooting people from their lives when millions of refugees are waiting to return home.

[Jon Miller]

https://youtu.be/I9SGSkhcmYk

Jack Devine is former CIA and he thinks Russia is in trouble and Ukraine has done well, but he doesn't think Ukraine can take Crimea

That would probably be my take.

Last year I had suggested that Ukraine should trade Crimea for (at least a short term) peace. Obviously they would use that peace to join NATO/EU. At the time Russia wouldn't accept that (not sure if it would accept that now). My understanding is that Russia has mostly moved Ukrainians out of Crimea and Russian in, like what they have been doing in the the Donbas region/etc.

JM

[Dinner]

Crimea is probably a tough nut to crack but I could see it being sieged down if the bridge is destroyed, the water cut off, and the land bridge retaken.

[Berzerker]

https://youtu.be/I9SGSkhcmYk

Jack Devine is former CIA and he thinks Russia is in trouble and Ukraine has done well, but he doesn't think Ukraine can take Crimea

[Berzerker]

There's been an uptick of birth defects in Iraq since the war, but the link to DU rounds is not really established.

War is hell, and it could be a lot of other things as well.

I read that a nuclear waste site south of Baghdad was the source of a massive leak, people dumped the waste and took the barrels to hold water. Mad Max is here.