Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

I didn't get my education about Ukraine or the coup from Putin, I watched a BBC interview with one of the snipers. Whether or not it was a coup is relevant to Ukrainians, especially the people who voted for the man. Of course it was a coup, 100+ people were killed and the leader fled for his life. Dissidents were murdered or silenced while politicians were terrified of Azov and the CIA.

That is not a coup. Who among the parliamentarians who voted for the ouster have claimed, even once, that they did so out of intimidation? Any at all? Enough to have otherwise kept Viktor in office?

[Berzerker]

If you think this sounds like a plan that the US would sign up for why do you not countenance Putin pursuing it?

Putin spent 8 years "defending" the Donbas? I suppose the US was defending Iraqis and Afghanis? 14k people died in the Donbas while Putin "defended" it. Satellite documented destruction in the Donbas has only vastly increased since his special operation began. Its absurd to suppose casualties could be anything less now that he is openly "defending" yhem with the entire Russian military and Wagner mercenaries. Mass grave sites post occupation are huge. Where were the mass grave sites for Azov's Nazi genocide of Russian speakers like Zelensky whom the rest of Ukraine voted to lead their country?

why did Putin wait 8 years to invade and not do so sooner? Because the much lesser sanctions inflicted in 2014 did substantial harm to Russia. He wanted time to sanction proof Russia and wait for signs of weak and cowardly leadership in the West. He wanted to wait until he felt the time was right.

What kind of weak excuse for a troll is this?

Minsk never had anything to do with what Russia planned to actually do. Why would you believe that it would?

If the people in Donbas voted for Minsk I guess that means they wanted the Separatists to be disarmed, the Russians to leave, and for the Donbas to be part of Ukraine. Putin wanted Minsk to be signed so that pressure would be placed on Ukraine to pull the UA out of the entire Donbas and so he could claim that it didn't constrain Russia whatsoever.

If Russia is on record as declaring the Minsk I and Minsk II placed absolutely no constraints or obligations on Russia whatsoever, why don't you believe them? Why do you keep trotting out Russian signatures on Minsk treaties as meaning anything if they say the signatures meant nothing?

I think its a plan the USA would sign up for because I've listened to US politicians and generals advocate bleeding Russia in Ukraine for years. I dont see a motive for Russia following the same plan in spite of your 'head start' theory. Kiev attacked the Donbas, Russia responded twice militarily to stop Azov's advances and that led to Minsk. So Putin waited until his puppet was out of the White House to invade? Would that make Biden his puppet?

Minsk had nothing to do with Putin's plan to bleed Ukraine? It had everything to do with the US plan to bleed Russia. I think the people of the Donbas wanted Kiev to stop attacking them, that never happened. If it had then Russian help wouldn't be necessary. I dont know how they felt about gun ownership for themselves but given how they were just attacked by Kiev I dont think disarming each other was a priority. I dont keep trotting out Russian signatures on Minsk, we're talking about the people of the Donbas and their wishes.

So, did Putin and his little green men rig the vote in the Donbas to support Minsk because the voters opposed it and wanted Kiev to keep attacking them?

Your Iraqi analogy is flawed (you really need to cut down on the analogies), the US conquered Iraq, Russia helped the Donbas stalemate Kiev's advances eastward.

[Berzerker]

For the record, often when discussing Ukraine with Berz, or Serb or any other Putin supporter/Putin believer, I will refer to the removal of Viktor Yanukovych, lawfully elected in internationally observed free elections, as a "coup". I do so not because I believe his ouster technically qualifies as a coup, but largely because whether or not it was a coup is totally irrelevant to what Russia would or would not be justified in doing to Ukraine. I generally don't want to get the discussion off on a tangent so I call it coup as well.

Having said all that, it totally was not a coup. Even if I don't think his ouster was a good idea and that the Ukrainians should have tried voting him out, at least once, his removal was perfectly legal.

I didn't get my education about Ukraine or the coup from Putin, I watched a BBC interview with one of the snipers. Whether or not it was a coup is relevant to Ukrainians, especially the people who voted for the man. Of course it was a coup, 100+ people were killed and the leader fled for his life. Dissidents were murdered or silenced while politicians were terrified of Azov and the CIA.

[Geronimo]

That sounds like our plan... still is our plan. A frozen conflict to bleed Russia. Prighozin just made a video criticizing foreign policy. So Putin spent 8 years defending the Donbas from Kiev to get a head start when he went for Kiev? Wouldn't he invade sooner before Nato armed and trained the Ukrainians and come from Belarus?

If you think this sounds like a plan that the US would sign up for why do you not countenance Putin pursuing it?

Putin spent 8 years "defending" the Donbas? I suppose the US was defending Iraqis and Afghanis? 14k people died in the Donbas while Putin "defended" it. Satellite documented destruction in the Donbas has only vastly increased since his special operation began. Its absurd to suppose casualties could be anything less now that he is openly "defending" yhem with the entire Russian military and Wagner mercenaries. Mass grave sites post occupation are huge. Where were the mass grave sites for Azov's Nazi genocide of Russian speakers like Zelensky whom the rest of Ukraine voted to lead their country?

why did Putin wait 8 years to invade and not do so sooner? Because the much lesser sanctions inflicted in 2014 did substantial harm to Russia. He wanted time to sanction proof Russia and wait for signs of weak and cowardly leadership in the West. He wanted to wait until he felt the time was right.

Are you saying Putin rigged the vote in the Donbas in support of Minsk because the people living there opposed it and wanted to be attacked by Kiev?

What kind of weak excuse for a troll is this?

Minsk never had anything to do with what Russia planned to actually do. Why would you believe that it would?

If the people in Donbas voted for Minsk I guess that means they wanted the Separatists to be disarmed, the Russians to leave, and for the Donbas to be part of Ukraine. Putin wanted Minsk to be signed so that pressure would be placed on Ukraine to pull the UA out of the entire Donbas and so he could claim that it didn't constrain Russia whatsoever.

If Russia is on record as declaring the Minsk I and Minsk II placed absolutely no constraints or obligations on Russia whatsoever, why don't you believe them? Why do you keep trotting out Russian signatures on Minsk treaties as meaning anything if they say the signatures meant nothing?

[Berzerker]

And supporting Assange? Our taxes fund and arm Ukraine, that makes us complicit in their crimes.

[Berzerker]

Putin's little green men were to establish a frozen conflict that Putin hoped he could leverage to weaken ukraine at minimal cost to Russia.

Putins little green men (actually just Putin himself perhaps since nobody else is permitted to express an original thought on foreign policy) wanted Minsk to get the UA out of Donbas so he could start the special operation with that much more of a head start.

Putin has broken every treaty and agreement with Ukraine. I find it laughable that you conflate him signing a treaty as him accepting, let alone endorsing its terms.

For Putin, treaties are just a weapon to use against lesser gullible powers.

That sounds like our plan... still is our plan. A frozen conflict to bleed Russia. Prighozin just made a video criticizing foreign policy. So Putin spent 8 years defending the Donbas from Kiev to get a head start when he went for Kiev? Wouldn't he invade sooner before Nato armed and trained the Ukrainians and come from Belarus? Are you saying Putin rigged the vote in the Donbas in support of Minsk because the people living there opposed it and wanted to be attacked by Kiev?

[Broken_Erika]

They also made an MBT based on the T-80

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-84

[Dinner]

Ammunition for Russian systems is a critical component for Ukrainian air defense. I have seen the same reports that ammunition for these systems is very low. Not sure if S-300 and Buk ammunition was ever built in Ukraine but I imagine they may be able to produce some internally if they were able to fabricate equipment and had the specs.

This brings to mind an interesting question I have not seen addressed anywhere...What is the state of Ukrainian domestic arms production and what are they producing?

I heard they were producing their own AFV before the current invasion but the only buyer was Ukraine and Iraq while Iraq ended up rejecting them all for bad quality control. Frames not being square, armored panels not being installed correctly, etc... My guess is it needs more development time. Not sure about what other domestic systems they might have. In Soviet times they specialized in aircraft and missiles so they might have some stuff in their fields.

[Geronimo]

It was the distance involved. The Patriot was the only system with the range to attack the aircraft.

This development could also help with the unfavorable financial trade off use of $4 million patriot missiles to intercept russian air launched ballistic missiles has been. Just intercept the airframe that will launch before it can do so and the resulting 2-for-the-price-of-1 goes a long way to make the patriot interception a better bargain.

[Geronimo]

https://youtu.be/mS8YOjvUtJc

Ukrainian kill lists... cuz they love freedom and democracy

Are they talking about Myrotvorets?

Who calls it a kill list? Strange that it has led to the arrests of 1000+ people if it is a hit list of people to kill.

What government doesn't maintain public lists of people it plans to arrest? The biggest issue human rights observers have had is the doxing of everybody on it because the list includes several journalists.

if you want to protect journalists start by opposing Putin.

[PLATO]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune

[Broken_Erika]

I believe the cruise missiles that sunk the Moskva were designed and built in Ukraine. Well, technically they were based on an old soviet design but with modern engine and electronics....

[PLATO]

My understanding is Ukraine is running low on S-300s while Buks are to short on range. That just leaves Patriots though I believe the Italians are preparing to send an Italian designed system.

Ammunition for Russian systems is a critical component for Ukrainian air defense. I have seen the same reports that ammunition for these systems is very low. Not sure if S-300 and Buk ammunition was ever built in Ukraine but I imagine they may be able to produce some internally if they were able to fabricate equipment and had the specs.

This brings to mind an interesting question I have not seen addressed anywhere...What is the state of Ukrainian domestic arms production and what are they producing?

[PLATO]

I'm surprised that a patriot was needed for a bomber. Aren't they generally easy targets for conventional air defences?

It was the distance involved. The Patriot was the only system with the range to attack the aircraft.

[Dinner]

My understanding is Ukraine is running low on S-300s while Buks are to short on range. That just leaves Patriots though I believe the Italians are preparing to send an Italian designed system.