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Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

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  • The USA will force the people of Crimea and the Donbas to live under the rule of Azov

    wtf

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    • PLATO, I was maybe a bit short, so will elaborate a bit. UA manage to get to the Azov sea, destroy the Kersh bridge, knock out russians in the remaining areas that they occupy in the Kherson oblast, get a front line in the west of Crimea starting pounding whatever the russians have of defenses with artillery, drones etc. both destroying defenses but also bleeding out resources - kind of a Kherson II, but on a bit larger scale, so will take longer time.
      The real question is if the UA can make an offensive that makes it realistic to liberate the Kherson area. Edit: that is of course not enough - they will need enough forces to make reliable defenses in the east and still have enough to advance in the west.
      Last edited by BlackCat; May 18, 2023, 19:38.
      With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

      Steven Weinberg

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      • Originally posted by BlackCat View Post
        PLATO, I was maybe a bit short, so will elaborate a bit. UA manage to get to the Azov sea, destroy the Kersh bridge, knock out russians in the remaining areas that they occupy in the Kherson oblast, get a front line in the west of Crimea starting pounding whatever the russians have of defenses with artillery, drones etc. both destroying defenses but also bleeding out resources - kind of a Kherson II, but on a bit larger scale, so will take longer time.
        The real question is if the UA can make an offensive that makes it realistic to liberate the Kherson area. Edit: that is of course not enough - they will need enough forces to make reliable defenses in the east and still have enough to advance in the west.
        Yep...we are on the same page.
        "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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        • Originally posted by PLATO View Post

          Yep...we are on the same page.
          Meh, there is actually a dark horse in Belarus - as long as Lukashenko​ is alive and kicking, the northern front will be kind of quiet, but if he dies, noone really knows what will happen since he doesn't have an obvious successor. Either there will be a peaceful takeover of another dictator, some democratic presidency, a joyful integration of the country into the russian empire or maybe civil war. If it end up in a second front it might mess things up a bit.
          With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

          Steven Weinberg

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Berzerker View Post
            The USA will force the people of Crimea and the Donbas to live under the rule of Azov

            wtf
            Ah, you seem to prefer that those people live in a dictatorial rule made by putin instead of a free democracy.
            With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

            Steven Weinberg

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Berzerker View Post
              The USA will force the people of Crimea and the Donbas to live under the rule of Azov

              wtf
              It's about time. At least evil Azov has an excuse for being in Crimea.

              By the way, what documented evil things has Azov done? What documented evil things have their enemies done?

              Comment


              • Originally posted by BlackCat View Post

                Ah, you seem to prefer that those people live in a dictatorial rule made by putin instead of a free democracy.
                I would object if the USA forced them to live under Putin, but we're not arming Putin to attack them and Ukraine is not a free democracy. How about we let them decide?

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                • Originally posted by Geronimo View Post

                  It's about time. At least evil Azov has an excuse for being in Crimea.

                  By the way, what documented evil things has Azov done? What documented evil things have their enemies done?
                  A coup is not an excuse to kill dissidents, thats one documented evil thing. Shelling the people of the Donbas for 8 years is another. How did they respond when Azov attacked them? They asked Putin for help.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Berzerker View Post

                    I would object if the USA forced them to live under Putin, but we're not arming Putin to attack them and Ukraine is not a free democracy. How about we let them decide?
                    Excuse me, but are you a total idiot ? Ukraine is most certainly a free democracy, especially since they kicked out the russian oligarc.
                    With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

                    Steven Weinberg

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Berzerker View Post

                      A coup is not an excuse to kill dissidents, thats one documented evil thing. Shelling the people of the Donbas for 8 years is another. How did they respond when Azov attacked them? They asked Putin for help.
                      Yup, you are an idiot - there are no evidence that Ukraine has shelled their own people in Donbas - that is a fantasy made up of Putin and his cronies.
                      With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

                      Steven Weinberg

                      Comment


                      • Technically I'm actually a bit wrong - the Ukrainans have actually shelled a lot of russians in the Donbas area, they all was of the type called "little green men" aka russian military units without their correct distinctions, and that certainly made them legal targets.
                        With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

                        Steven Weinberg

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by BlackCat View Post

                          Excuse me, but are you a total idiot ? Ukraine is most certainly a free democracy, especially since they kicked out the russian oligarc.
                          The guy was democratically elected and fled for his life after he was blamed for 100+ people killed in a right wing coup. Vote against us and we will murder people, free and democratic. The people who did that went around killing dissidents and they attacked eastern Ukrainians who overwhelmingly voted for the man for not supporting their coup. Those are the facts as I know them. Its bizarre how people outraged by Jan 6 have no problem with a bloodbath in Kiev and arming Nazis to go on a rampage.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by BlackCat View Post
                            Technically I'm actually a bit wrong - the Ukrainans have actually shelled a lot of russians in the Donbas area, they all was of the type called "little green men" aka russian military units without their correct distinctions, and that certainly made them legal targets.
                            Then why did they support Minsk?

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                            • Originally posted by Berzerker View Post

                              Then why did they support Minsk?
                              The Ukrainians had hundreds of thousands of guns to their heads.

                              Why do suppose Iraq agreed to UNSC 687 and 689? It wasn't because the Saddam Hussein regime thought they were a good idea they wanted to line up behind. If there was any support of the Iraqi people for either resolution it would have been in hopes of end to the war.

                              The Ukrainians also hoped something, anything agreed to in the Minsk agreement would be delivered by the Russians and their Separatist puppets led by at that time by Moscow born and previously resident FSB agents who had never previously lived in the Donbas. The Ukrainians would be completely disappointed. Russia, despite demanding a seat at the table of the Minsk "negotiations" actually immediately publicly and officially declared they were bound by nothing in the agreements whatsoever. Per Minsk, the Separatists were to be disarmed and Russia was immediately discovered shipping more arms to the Separatists and never stopped.

                              Ukraine never supported any version of Minsk that Russia was willing to even give lip service to, let alone that Russia would actually respect.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Geronimo View Post

                                The Ukrainians had hundreds of thousands of guns to their heads.

                                Why do suppose Iraq agreed to UNSC 687 and 689? It wasn't because the Saddam Hussein regime thought they were a good idea they wanted to line up behind. If there was any support of the Iraqi people for either resolution it would have been in hopes of end to the war.

                                The Ukrainians also hoped something, anything agreed to in the Minsk agreement would be delivered by the Russians and their Separatist puppets led by at that time by Moscow born and previously resident FSB agents who had never previously lived in the Donbas. The Ukrainians would be completely disappointed. Russia, despite demanding a seat at the table of the Minsk "negotiations" actually immediately publicly and officially declared they were bound by nothing in the agreements whatsoever. Per Minsk, the Separatists were to be disarmed and Russia was immediately discovered shipping more arms to the Separatists and never stopped.

                                Ukraine never supported any version of Minsk that Russia was willing to even give lip service to, let alone that Russia would actually respect.
                                I'm talking about the people of the Donbas. If Putin's little green men were in charge why did they support Minsk? The deal kept the Donbas in Ukraine. And the only guns pointed at Ukrainians were held by Azov, they showed up to attack eastern Ukraine. Putin limited his response to defending them, not attacking Kiev.

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