Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

I'm skeptical.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/what_is_the_real_price_of_russian_missiles_about_the_cost_of_kalibr_kh_101_and_iskander_missiles-4709.html

That was a good read and a good take on where wiki gets its info from. So it is likely then that a kinzhal taking out a Patriot missile is a cost effective strategy for Russia afterall.

[pchang]

Except for the fact that the economy and military budget of the US >> Russia's.

[Geronimo]

Alas, ukraine does not have a budget as large as the US. The $5 million missile expense translates into a political liability for donors.

[pchang]

The party out of power will try to turn anything into a political liability. So far in the US, Republicans have not succeeded.

[BlackCat]

I'm skeptical.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/what_is_the_real_price_of_russian_missiles_about_t he_cost_of_kalibr_kh_101_and_iskander_missiles-4709.html

I could be wrong, but I think that there might be some cost involved in not shooting down those thingies.

[Geronimo]

I could be wrong, but I think that there might be some cost involved in not shooting down those thingies.

I totally agree. But the point is after the exchange which side came out ahead, not whether either side handled it in the best way.

[pchang]

All sorts of crazy coming from Russia: stray dog platoons, Russian talking heads admitting Russia could lose and threatening mutual annihilation, fast track Russian citizenship as long as you fight in Ukraine for them, senior officials banned from resigning, etc. All this seems to point to a recognition within the government that things are going badly.

[Dinner]

You love all kind of bullsh!t from your Kiev Bob's whore, but the fact is:

The reality is one unit was slightly damaged but still functional from a small explosion near it. All of the "unstoppable" missiles Russia launched got shot down.

[BlackCat]

That video is probably kinda fake - the Swiss doesn't have that big a fleet

[Berzerker]

There's been an uptick of birth defects in Iraq since the war, but the link to DU rounds is not really established.

War is hell, and it could be a lot of other things as well.

I read that a nuclear waste site south of Baghdad was the source of a massive leak, people dumped the waste and took the barrels to hold water. Mad Max is here.

[Berzerker]

https://youtu.be/I9SGSkhcmYk

Jack Devine is former CIA and he thinks Russia is in trouble and Ukraine has done well, but he doesn't think Ukraine can take Crimea

[Dinner]

Crimea is probably a tough nut to crack but I could see it being sieged down if the bridge is destroyed, the water cut off, and the land bridge retaken.

[Jon Miller]

https://youtu.be/I9SGSkhcmYk

Jack Devine is former CIA and he thinks Russia is in trouble and Ukraine has done well, but he doesn't think Ukraine can take Crimea

That would probably be my take.

Last year I had suggested that Ukraine should trade Crimea for (at least a short term) peace. Obviously they would use that peace to join NATO/EU. At the time Russia wouldn't accept that (not sure if it would accept that now). My understanding is that Russia has mostly moved Ukrainians out of Crimea and Russian in, like what they have been doing in the the Donbas region/etc.

JM

[Berzerker]

I suspect the people moving into these areas are refugees from the 8 year Donbas war. I cant imagine Russians would support uprooting people from their lives when millions of refugees are waiting to return home.

[BeBMan]

Russian government services site requests ‘ideas for country’s development’ then rejects user’s proposal to ‘end the war in Ukraine’


(...)

Margarita Loginova, a journalist for the independent media outlet Verstka, submitted the following proposals: ending the war in Ukraine, holding fair elections, restoring press freedom, and releasing political prisoners. She added that these measures would “end the outflow of people from small towns, increase citizens’ well-being, and cause people to have more children.” The submission remained on the platform for about 15 minutes and, according to Loginova, garnered 15 “plus-sign reactions in support” from other users before it was removed.

(...)

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/17/russian-government-services-site-requests-ideas-for-country-s-development-then-rejects-user-s-proposal-to-end-the-war-in-ukraine

[PLATO]

Crimea is probably a tough nut to crack but I could see it being sieged down if the bridge is destroyed, the water cut off, and the land bridge retaken.

The land bridge is one of the reasons that it is a tough nut to crack. If Ukraine could get past that, then the defense of Crimea for Russia becomes much harder.

[BeBMan]

I could be wrong, but I think that there might be some cost involved in not shooting down those thingies.

For everyone involved, it seems:

Three prominent hypersonic scientists, Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk, and Valery Zvegintsev, who have worked extensively on Russia’s hypersonic weapons, have been apprehended on suspicion of high treason.

This comes after Ukraine asserted that it had successfully taken down a series of supposedly ‘undefeatable’ missiles.

The arrests have triggered apprehension within Russia’s scientific community. Colleagues of the detained individuals released an open letter expressing their innocence and highlighting the potential risks these prosecutions pose to Russian science.

(...)

The open letter Russian scientists wrote ahead of the arrests, also brought attention to the case of Dmitry Kolker, a Siberian scientist who was arrested last year on suspicion of state treason, despite suffering from advanced pancreatic cancer.

Tragically, the laser specialist passed away just two days after being flown to Moscow. The letter emphasized that such incidents have a chilling effect on young Russian scientists.

Gotta wonder if hypersonic flights through windows are a thing.

Full article: https://www.firstpost.com/world/thro...-12613332.html

[BlackCat]

The land bridge is one of the reasons that it is a tough nut to crack. If Ukraine could get past that, then the defense of Crimea for Russia becomes much harder.

Trying to attack on the eastern side would be kind of suicide while the western side isn't that bad. It's mainly flat land that isn't that easy to defend. Add to that it's also kind of narrow without being horrible.

[PLATO]

Trying to attack on the eastern side would be kind of suicide while the western side isn't that bad. It's mainly flat land that isn't that easy to defend. Add to that it's also kind of narrow without being horrible.

One of the advantages that an attacker has is that they can concentrate force at a particular point. A defender has to cover a much wider area as they do not know the exact location an attack will occur at. The narrowness of the land bridge favors the defender in that they can also concentrate force. In a typical attack, you would want a 2 or 3 to 1 advantage in attacker to defender. The concentration of Russian forces and the fortifications they have built make that a much harder goal for the UAF to obtain. IF thy did break through, the the defenders are once again having to spread out to defend a much larger line. Crimea is both easily defended and easily isolated. It has a strength and a weakness for defense. I think it far more likely that the UAF will try to seal off Crimea and cut off resupply for a while before they will try and penetrate the land bridge.