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Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

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  • -Jrabbit
    commented on 's reply
    Makes no sense. You can't create an "autonomous republic" within a sovereign nation.
    And if you believe there is any way Putin would put Crimea on the table, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    But hey, I agree that cutting the balls off their "brothers" in Ukraine would be a great deal -- for Russia.
    Last edited by -Jrabbit; December 26, 2023, 12:00.

  • Ming
    replied
    Again... please provide actual proof of any of that.
    You keep stating that over and over again, but it doesn't make it any more true.
    Putin started the war, NOT Biden. Putin invaded another country to grab more land. Fact.
    The "people" he claimed to be saving were the the ones that suffered the most... being killed, raped and having their lives destroyed by Russian troops.
    And even still for now, Putin's idea of peace/cease fire rests on him keeping land that Russia currently holds. That and Ukraine has to continue bending over to Russia.
    Stop trying to make Putin the hero in this ugly and deadly war.

    Leave a comment:


  • Berzerker
    replied
    ISIS conquered half of Syria under Obama. Trump ended Timber Sycamore and within months ISIS lost nearly everything. Ukraine verified? lol. He invaded because his offers were repeatedly violated or rejected. After he invaded his next offer was taken seriously until Biden sent Boris in to kill the deal... and Ukraine.

    ​​​​​https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/...ncerns-ukraine

    Leave a comment:


  • Berzerker
    commented on 's reply
    the deal he offered in March '22 would have left the Donbas in Ukraine as an autonomous republic, prohibited a ban on the Russian language with no Nato along with limits on Ukraine's future military. If Ukraine ceased being a launching pad for western malfeasance Crimea would be on the table. I think thats a great deal, how about you?

  • Geronimo
    replied
    Originally posted by Berzerker View Post

    I didn't identify the assassin, his own people already murdered a negotiator back when these peace talks were ongoing and probably why Putin agreed to keep the details secret. But yes, if Zelensky tried to make peace he'd likely be assassinated by the Ukrainian right wing and/or the USA or we'd offer our blessing like we did with the coup (assuming we didn't plan that too). If Putin wanted Zelensky dead he'd be dead.

    The narrative of a massive counter attack decimating the Russian army advancing on Kiev is BS, they withdrew because they had a deal. Here's our deal: you get rich or you get dead. Not many people would choose the latter. Of all the main players in this who would kill Zelensky for refusing to do as told? Yeah, the Nazis and Joe Biden.

    If Ukraine 'wins' Nazis will control the Donbas and Crimea thanks to us. That aint gonna happen. I wouldn't even inflict them on the rest of Ukraine. Why did we empower effing Nazis to run Ukraine? The place was already suffering from massive corruption. As for the deal:

    "Arakhamia said that internationally mediated negotiations in Istanbul, shortly after the March 2022 talks in Belarus, actually produced an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to bring the fighting to an end—on the basis of those same points.

    “[The Russians] were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality like Finland once did. And we were ready to make a commitment that we would not join NATO. When we returned from Istanbul, [then-British Prime Minister] Boris Johnson came to Kiev and said: ‘Do not sign anything with them at all; just go to war,’” Arakhamia said."

    "According to Schroeder, the deal would have included four main points: The first was that Ukraine would abandon plans to join NATO. The second was that bans on the Russian language in Ukraine would be removed. The third was that Donbass would remain in Ukraine but function as an autonomous region. The fourth was that the U.N. and Germany would offer to supervise the security agreements. The Crimea situation was left to be addressed in the future."

    Are the U.S. and its NATO allies beginning to rethink their strategy for the war in Ukraine? Officially, the U.S. continues to stand lockstep behind President Volodymyr Zelensky, with President Joe Biden pushing for over $60 billion in new weaponry and other aid for Ukraine as part of his recent $10...


    Reagan called his terrorists freedom fighters, Obama called his moderate rebels. I never said the west had to arm ISIS, just that we did. The earliest we've admitted to arming ISIS is 2014 with Timber Sycamore and the dispersal of Libya's arsenal. By 2016 ISIS/AQ had taken half of Syria and Obama's moderate rebels were nowhere to be seen other than a little cubby hole up there on Turkey's border where the weapons were entering Syria, gee whiz Wally aint that a coincidink. Trump got elected and ended the policy of arming ISIS and let Russia attack them and within months they were pretty much gone. ​
    the policy of arming ISIS never ended Berz.

    Berz if you don't believe the narrative of a massive counter attack decimating the Russian army advancing on Kiev tell me how did Ukraine verifiably acquire so much war material that could only have come from Russia or even which has photo corroboration of a chain of custody that included clear Russian abandonment? Furthermore if Putin planned on keeping these peace agreements why bother invading in the first place, especially if Ukraine never decimated their forces anywhere? Did he judge denazification to be the same as a treaty obligation by Ukraine to never join NATO and adopt the Minsk accords? ...For the record there were never any bans on the Russian language to lift.

    Leave a comment:


  • Geronimo
    commented on 's reply
    actually we can't ask the people of the Donbas. If they talk to foreigners they will at best be officially forced to declare themselves foreign agents and at worst they will disappear. Depending on what they choose to tell the foreigners of course.

  • -Jrabbit
    commented on 's reply
    You really stop reading as soon as you see "denazification" don't you? His unchanging goals include demilitarizing a sovereign nation and denying them the agency and ability to choose their allies freely.

    All, laughably, after starting out by stating, "The existence of our country without sovereignty is impossible. It will simply not exist."
    To Putin, only Russia is permitted to be sovereign. And that is the core of his message.

  • -Jrabbit
    commented on 's reply
    Defense industries, while important, don't actually drive the economy. Defense spending is about 3% of GDP.

  • Broken_Erika
    replied
    How pro-Russian 'yacht' propaganda influenced US debate over Ukraine aid​

    A website founded by a former US Marine who now lives in Russia has fuelled a rumour that Volodymyr Zelensky purchased two luxury yachts with American aid money.

    Despite the false claim, the disinformation plot was successful. It took off online and was echoed by members of the US Congress making crucial decisions about military spending.

    It was an incredible assertion - using two advisers as proxies, Mr Zelensky paid $75m (£59m) for two yachts.

    But not only has the Ukrainian government flatly denied the story, the two ships in question have not even been sold.

    Despite being false, the story reached members of the US Congress, where leaders say any decision on further aid to Ukraine will be delayed until next year.

    Some are vehemently opposed to further support.

    On X, formerly Twitter, Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene said: "Anyone who votes to fund Ukraine is funding the most corrupt money scheme of any foreign war in our country's history."

    She linked to a story containing the yacht rumour.

    Tom Tillis, a Republican Senator and a supporter of military aid to Ukraine, spoke to CNN shortly after senators held a closed-door meeting with Mr Zelensky last week.

    "I think the notion of corruption came up because some have said we can't do it, because people will buy yachts with the money," Mr Tillis said. "[Mr Zelensky] disabused people of those notions."

    Mr Tillis has butted heads with another Republican Senator, J D Vance, who has also mentioned Mr Zelensky and ships in the same breath.

    While discussing budget priorities on a podcast hosted by former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon, Mr Vance said: "There are people who would cut Social Security, throw our grandparents into poverty, why? So that one of Zelensky's ministers can buy a bigger yacht?"

    Although the yacht rumour is false, the BBC has discovered the story was given a major boost by a Russia-linked website that pretends to be located in Washington.

    It is, researchers say, a "likely purpose-built tool for narrative laundering with links to the Russian government".
    The 'Washington' website with roots in Russia​

    The story first emerged in late November on an obscure YouTube channel - one with only a handful of followers and just a single video in its feed.

    The next day, it was picked up by a site called DC Weekly, alongside pictures of the two yachts - called Lucky Me and My Legacy - and documents purportedly confirming the sale of the boats to Zelensky's associates.

    But the luxury yacht brokers where both vessels are listed for sale said that the allegations are false. The sales documents appear to be forgeries. And instead of having been purchased by Zelensky or his close advisers, both Lucky Me and My Legacy are still up for sale.

    The DC Weekly story touched off a blaze of online speculation, with multiple sources linking to the story and content citing the story across multiple platforms.

    However, the site is not, as the name implies, a weekly publication - nor is it based in the US capital.

    Research by Darren Linvill and Patrick Warren, disinformation researchers at Clemson University, shows that DC Weekly was started by John Mark Dougan, a former US Marine and Florida police officer who moved to Russia in 2016.

    Mr Dougan spent three years as a deputy with the Palm Beach County Sheriff's office, then after he left in 2009 he started a website spreading rumours about his former employers.

    Since moving to Russia he has reinvented himself as a journalist covering the invasion of Ukraine, and has spread a number of false and baseless claims - for example that Russia was attempting to destroy biological weapons labs.

    DC Weekly, the Clemson researchers discovered, is full of news stories copied from other sites and rewritten by artificial intelligence engines. The site's "reporters" have fake names along with headshots copied from elsewhere on the internet.

    Mixed in with the rewritten stories - apparently designed to give the site a sheen of legitimacy - are dubious original reports.

    One such story was the origin of the yacht claim, and the Clemson researchers tracked how the story spread widely after DC Weekly published its version.

    Evidence collected by the researchers indicates that the site continued to be connected to the same server as several of Mr Dougan's other websites. BBC Verify also found that part of the DC Weekly website is hosted on a server in Moscow.

    Earlier this year Mr Dougan was identified as being a DC Weekly commentator when he gave several talks at an academy affiliated with the Russian Foreign Ministry.

    "It is pretty obvious to me that Dougan has been involved with DC Weekly for a long time, and remains connected to the infrastructure behind it," Mr Warren said.

    Mr Dougan said via text message that he "emphatically denies these assertions", and that he sold DC Weekly for $3,000 several years ago. He said he does not recall the person he sold it to and has lost the paperwork due to being kicked off payment platforms and losing access to email accounts because of financial sanctions against Russia. He says he has nothing to do with the site's current operations.

    The researchers say the site is part of a much larger pro-Russia propaganda machine.

    "Whether this one particular guy is behind it doesn't really matter much," Mr Warren said. "The key point is that it is an important element in a very substantial and effective pro-Russian influence operation that needs to be exposed and understood."

    The Ukrainian President's Office said of the DC Weekly story: "All information in this article is fake. Zelensky and his family members do not and did not have any yachts."

    Mr Tillis and Ms Greene were contacted for comment.

    A spokesperson for Mr Vance said: "For years, everyone in the West recognised that Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Somehow everyone forgot that just as we started sending them billions of dollars in foreign aid."
    Costume jewellery​

    The yacht story piles fictional stories onto existing concerns about corruption, which has been a long-running problem in Ukraine. Tackling it is one of the tests the country would have to pass to join Western institutions like the European Union.

    According to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, Ukraine ranks 116th out of 180 countries, although efforts in recent years have seen its position significantly improve.

    But the attention given to the country's real and ongoing corruption issues has been mild compared to online chatter over false stories backed up by fake documents and shadowy social media accounts.

    In October, a widely shared claim on social media stated that President Zelensky's wife spent a fortune on jewellery in New York while the Ukrainian president was in the city speaking to the United Nations.

    Like the yacht rumour, this claim originated on a YouTube channel with very few followers and just one video. The video featured a woman who said she is from Benin. She claimed to work at Cartier on New York's Fifth Avenue.

    The woman showed a receipt dated 22 September, with Mrs Zelensky's name on it and a bill for $1.1m for a bracelet, earrings and a necklace.

    Facial recognition tools threw up a close match between the woman in the video and photos from social media profiles of a woman who lives in St Petersburg, Russia. When we looked at the pictures of the woman it appeared to be the same person as the one in the YouTube video.

    The story went viral on Facebook, TikTok and Telegram. Russia's UK embassy X account shared it with the comment: "Best use of UK taxpayers money ever".

    But the receipt is a clear fake. By 21 September, Mr and Mrs Zelensky had left New York and travelled to Canada.

    One English-language site was instrumental in spreading the rumour - DC Weekly.

    BBC Verify and the Clemson researchers found a number of DC Weekly articles posted between August and December this year that followed the same pattern.

    The articles falsely alleged that Prince Andrew made a secret visit to Ukraine, that Ukraine provided weapons to Hamas, that an American non-profit organisation harvested organs in Ukraine and that Zelensky's administration allowed Western companies to use Ukrainian farmland for disposal of toxic waste.

    Stories on DC Weekly were often published within days after allegations first appeared on YouTube.

    In addition to DC Weekly, some of the allegations - including those about Cartier jewellery and yachts - also appeared on several pro-Kremlin English-language websites as well as legitimate news websites in Africa that accept "sponsored" (paid-for) content.

    Some of the stories were picked up by other outlets and accounts. But with the story about the yachts, the people behind DC Weekly appear to have achieved a level of success that had previously eluded them - their allegations being repeated by some of the most powerful people in the US Congress.​
    A false rumour spread by a dubious AI-powered website caught the attention of leading politicians.

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  • Berzerker
    replied
    Originally posted by BeBMan View Post
    To everyone's surprise Putin disagrees with Berz on peace deals:
    How so?

    Leave a comment:


  • Berzerker
    commented on 's reply
    Can we ask the people of the Donbas?

  • Berzerker
    commented on 's reply
    Well there ya go, defense contractors are making $$$

    Starting to see the picture yet?

  • BeBMan
    replied
    To everyone's surprise Putin disagrees with Berz on peace deals:

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has said peace with Ukraine will only take place "when we achieve our objectives".


    He was fielding questions from journalists and ordinary Russians in his first marathon news conference since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

    Much of the largely choreographed event focused on what he calls the "special military operation in Ukraine".

    He insisted the situation was improving throughout the front line.

    The "direct line" programme, televised for more than four hours by most major channels, began with President Putin telling Russians: "The existence of our country without sovereignty is impossible. It will simply not exist."

    He added that Russia's economy was strong for a time of war and the topic of conversation quickly moved to Ukraine.

    Mr Putin said that "there will be peace [in Ukraine] when we achieve our objectives". Those "objectives do not change", he said, listing "denazification, demilitarisation and its neutral status". These are themes he has highlighted from the start of the war.

    (snipsnap)
    Russia's leader holds his first major news conference since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ming
    replied
    Originally posted by Berzerker View Post
    Oh, then Putin's war has been good for Wall St.
    The only thing correct in that statement is "PUTIN'S WAR"
    Because he is the one that ordered the attack and his troops have been killing and raping the people he claims to be saving...
    And have you noticed that Russia isn't putting those soldiers on trial for their actions? That's because Putin doesn't give a damn about the people, only the territory

    Leave a comment:


  • pchang
    commented on 's reply
    Berz is increasingly becoming untethered from reality.
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