Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dauphin]

You missed the point. I was drawing attention to the disparities in direct military aid. I would love to see more current comparisons of direct military aid but all that i find are net comparisons of aid of all types. I maintain that unless the current numbers show that the total fraction of direct military aid (the kind of aid that Ukraine quite clearly underlines is by far the most critical for Ukraine's survival) from the US is far less than half of total direct military aid to Ukraine, then Trump will still be in a position to manipulate huge concessions to Russia as terms of his deal.

I will of course be quite happy if you provide a link that showing that non-US direct military aid is much more than half of the total of direct military aid to Ukraine, just as I was happy to see your link suggesting that the US provided much less than half of the net total of all forms of aid to Ukraine.

Same source:

Total bilateral aid to Ukraine by donor & type 2024 | Statista


US Military Aid Euro 52 bn
Other Country Miltary Aid ~ Euro 52 bn and change, I gave up counting when it hit Euro 52bn, but there wasn't much left to count.

[Dinner]

Interesting, according to this USA is number 17 with 15 european countries and Canada above. Below USA is 16 other european countries which either has some nutcase rigthwing governments or have bad economies/other problems with society. Only strange one is France, but it might change when their Super Sabres in the coming months.

It's quite entertaining that there are americans that has a pretty good clue about what is happening in the rest of the world and then there are the wast amount that doesn't have a clue

Those numbers are as a percentage of GDP and count pledges delivered or not. Pledges are nice but if it takes five years to deliver and the war lasts three then little ends up getting delivered. Still nice to see but the rubber hits the road when weapons are fielded in battle.

[Geronimo]

Uhmn, that list you link to only say anything about the period January to November 2022 while my link cover January 24, 2022 to June 30, 2024. Further, it's way more interesting to look at what the capacity for the different countries is instead of some more or less random numbers.

You missed the point. I was drawing attention to the disparities in direct military aid. I would love to see more current comparisons of direct military aid but all that i find are net comparisons of aid of all types. I maintain that unless the current numbers show that the total fraction of direct military aid (the kind of aid that Ukraine quite clearly underlines is by far the most critical for Ukraine's survival) from the US is far less than half of total direct military aid to Ukraine, then Trump will still be in a position to manipulate huge concessions to Russia as terms of his deal.

I will of course be quite happy if you provide a link that showing that non-US direct military aid is much more than half of the total of direct military aid to Ukraine, just as I was happy to see your link suggesting that the US provided much less than half of the net total of all forms of aid to Ukraine.

[BlackCat]

Ukraine weapon deliveries value by country, the last time Statista tallied them, had the US as the majority contributer and while I agree that net of all contributions of all sorts as a percentage of GDP may be a much better gauge of political will in a country, I also sadly note that Ukraine at least, has made clear that the direct military aid is by far the most decisive for their survival.

Uhmn, that list you link to only say anything about the period January to November 2022 while my link cover January 24, 2022 to June 30, 2024. Further, it's way more interesting to look at what the capacity for the different countries is instead of some more or less random numbers.

[Geronimo]

Interesting, according to this USA is number 17 with 15 european countries and Canada above. Below USA is 16 other european countries which either has some nutcase rigthwing governments or have bad economies/other problems with society. Only strange one is France, but it might change when their Super Sabres in the coming months.

It's quite entertaining that there are americans that has a pretty good clue about what is happening in the rest of the world and then there are the wast amount that doesn't have a clue

I'm thrilled if my information on total contributions is dated, although if much of the relative drop in US contributions stems from the long pause in US contributions last year that will not be so encouraging. I do note that


Ukraine weapon deliveries value by country, the last time Statista tallied them, had the US as the majority contributer and while I agree that net of all contributions of all sorts as a percentage of GDP may be a much better gauge of political will in a country, I also sadly note that Ukraine at least, has made clear that the direct military aid is by far the most decisive for their survival.

I look forward to being proven wrong, but I remain cautiously pessimistic that should Trump try to end sanctions to make a peace "deal" happen he will successfully do so. Even if a few countries remain committed to keeping sanctions in place the sting will largely be gone.

Thank you for the encouraging link however.

[BlackCat]

That would be refreshing but I don't see it. A majority of states in Europe have contributed proportionately far less to the defence of Ukraine than the US has. They'd mostly cave and blame the US for the Russian victory that would develop from the "peace"

Interesting, according to this USA is number 17 with 15 european countries and Canada above. Below USA is 16 other european countries which either has some nutcase rigthwing governments or have bad economies/other problems with society. Only strange one is France, but it might change when their Super Sabres in the coming months.

It's quite entertaining that there are americans that has a pretty good clue about what is happening in the rest of the world and then there are the wast amount that doesn't have a clue

[Geronimo]

It's safe to assume that everybody in the world is basically just waiting to give Putin what he wants without any precondition

especially when all he says he wants now are things only Ukraine would have to pay for. I'm sure there will also be preconditions involving more "security guarantees" to compensate Ukraine for giving everything away to Russia.

[BeBMan]

Christmas etc. I'm a bit confused, are you saying that Trumpfh will pull out of the sanctions against russia ? Because that is the only way he could make life easier for Putin.

It's safe to assume that everybody in the world is basically just waiting to give Putin what he wants without any precondition

[Geronimo]

Interesting. I'm quite sure that the rest of the world (well, except from some like China, Iran, North chorea etc) would consider that quite offensive and result in restrictions on USA at par.

That would be refreshing but I don't see it. A majority of states in Europe have contributed proportionately far less to the defence of Ukraine than the US has. They'd mostly cave and blame the US for the Russian victory that would develop from the "peace"

[BlackCat]

Interesting. I'm quite sure that the rest of the world (well, except from some like China, Iran, North chorea etc) would consider that quite offensive and result in restrictions on USA at par.

[Geronimo]

Christmas etc. I'm a bit confused, are you saying that Trumpfh will pull out of the sanctions against russia ? Because that is the only way he could make life easier for Putin.

I'm pretty sure that things will go bad for russia during 2025-26 especially with their heavy military losses.

Yes. If Putin "deals" with Trump and offers that the US bring about an end to all sanctions as part of the "deal" for "peace" and an "end to the war" I have a horrible suspicion that Trump would be willing to try to make that happen for his "deal". Also a cease fire of any kind in which Putin could reduce the production of military hardware would also serve to allow Russia to try to defuse the economic death spiral. Military output may have been the extremely low multiplier stimulus that grew the Russian economy but it has long since become part of the problem strangling the rest of the economy.

[BlackCat]

Too little too late. Russia can hold things together until Trump lets Putin secure a breather in the (self inflicted) war pressure along with relief from practically all sanctions with practically no concessions at the negotiating table or the battlefield.if only the Saudis had gone ahead with their earlier threat to regain market share in December.

Christmas etc. I'm a bit confused, are you saying that Trumpfh will pull out of the sanctions against russia ? Because that is the only way he could make life easier for Putin.

I'm pretty sure that things will go bad for russia during 2025-26 especially with their heavy military losses.

[BeBMan]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx8l1533j5o

[BeBMan]

Too little too late. Russia can hold things together until Trump lets Putin secure a breather in the (self inflicted) war pressure along with relief from practically all sanctions with practically no concessions at the negotiating table or the battlefield.if only the Saudis had gone ahead with their earlier threat to regain market share in December.

Russia Snubs Trump's Call For Ukraine Ceasefire; FM Lavrov Says Open To Talks But Need Security Guarantees

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has dismissed Donald Trump’s calls for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, labelling it a “path to nowhere.” While Lavrov expressed openness to dialogue, he emphasized security guarantees and long-term agreements as prerequisites.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/russia-snubs-trumps-call-for-ukraine-ceasefire-fm-lavrov-says-open-to-talks-but-need-security-guarantees/videoshow/116686936.cms

The best way to get security guarantees is for Moscow to sign some memorandum, giving up all nukes for said guarantees, like Ukraine did.

[BeBMan]

Russia (and its predecessor USSR) are really good at downing civilian airplanes

Let's hope it doesn't turn into a tradition to do it every decade