Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dauphin]

I do think Ukraine has nothing to lose in pursuing an all or nothing scenario, and the West / NATO continue their goodwill.

[Dauphin]

Ironclad guarantees from Russia?

[PLATO]

My question is what happens if there is an outbreak of peace (along any given border line). Who will enforce the peace? What's to stop Russia having another go in a few years?

Seems to my crude analysis any peace deal necessitates Ukraine being admitted to NATO as a deterrent to future Russian aggression. That's not going to be acceptable to Russia. So.... how do reach a peace settlement.

Beat the Russian Army into submission. Sanction them until they pay Ukraine reparations or give ironclad security guarantees. Admit Ukraine into NATO regardless of how they feel. Russia threats are hollow and they have been exposed.

[Dauphin]

IIRC, zero. they desire instant Russian victory. The overwhelming majority would also settle for control of the 4 oblasts and peace. 10s of millions would accept peace at the current lines of control. A couple million would accept peace with Russia having less than that.

My question is what happens if there is an outbreak of peace (along any given border line). Who will enforce the peace? What's to stop Russia having another go in a few years?

Seems to my crude analysis any peace deal necessitates Ukraine being admitted to NATO as a deterrent to future Russian aggression. That's not going to be acceptable to Russia. So.... how do reach a peace settlement.

[Dauphin]

They go on auction to the highest bidder?

Their only use would be as a dirty bomb. Which I guess is bad, as it makes them more affordable.

[PLATO]

how do you defend against this? mind you - these pics are full day light... it's almost impossible to see the drone above you when the sun is above the drone. you can see the drone drop in pic 2. drone was about 350 feet up in this case.

Sucks to be them. They should have fled to Georgia. Killing the killers. Go Ukraine.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

those 'five' troops would then be locked down in that shelter with a roof. so in the end success as the drone has pretty much done its job.

[Proteus_MST]

how do you defend against this? mind you - these pics are full day light... it's almost impossible to see the drone above you when the sun is above the drone. you can see the drone drop in pic 2. drone was about 350 feet up in this case.

I assume only with a shelter/roof that is IR proof,
so the drone / its operator isn't able to discover the IR outlines of the 5 soldiers from above

[My Wife Hates CIV]

how do you defend against this? mind you - these pics are full day light... it's almost impossible to see the drone above you when the sun is above the drone. you can see the drone drop in pic 2. drone was about 350 feet up in this case.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

when will ukraine conquer russsia. i think we can all agree (even if you dont like MWHC)... it's never. russia has failed. the real question is... can russia make it look better (even a little) than it is now?

[Geronimo]

They go on auction to the highest bidder?

I wouldn't worry too much about it. North Korea and Iran are friendly destinations for Russia's nukes if things got too chaotic.

[pchang]

They go on auction to the highest bidder?

[PLATO]

Looking at what Wiki has to say, Russia would be neither a failed state or even a fragile state at this time. It is possible that if Putin loses power it could descend into one if the succession is heavily contested.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed...ate%20collapse).

As an interesting note, I heard on the BBC this morning that the Wagner group now has over 50,000 soldiers. Yevgeny Prigozhin could cause some major turmoil if he decided to try and take power himself.

To me the real question is if Russia does descend into a failed state, then what happens to the Nukes?

[Geronimo]

Slightly off topic, but could we consider Russia to be a failed state?

not even close at this point. If it was, most states in the world would have had failed state status in living memory. They may be opening a door that will lead them there however.

[BeBMan]

Putin put a new general in charge of the war I read. The prev one was winning too much.