Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

Meanwhile, in Russia:

The father of a 12-year old girl who drew an antiwar picture in a school in Russia is now under home arrest and is facing criminal charges, while his daughter has been released from state care, where she was interrogated about her opinions on Russian politics. They are among a growing number of children and parents who have been prosecuted for not supporting Russia’s “special military operation”.


Alexei Moskalyov was detained on Wednesday 1 March, in Yefremov, a town in the Tula region, about 240 km outside Moscow, while his daughter, Masha, was sent into an orphanage, according to OVD-Info, a human rights organisation that has been following their case. The father and daughter have been repeatedly detained, interrogated and - in Alexei’s case - beaten, since April 2022, when Masha drew an anti-war drawing at school. The drawing showed rockets being fired at a Ukrainian family. The school contacted the police to tell them about the drawing, which drew attention to anti-war statements that her father, Alexei, had posted on social media.

On one occasion in December, Masha was interrogated for several hours alone, without her father or a lawyer present, according to OVD-Info. A month later, the father was brutally beaten and interrogated, while Masha was taken into state care for a day. They moved cities for their safety, but the police eventually found them on Wednesday 1 March.

Shortly before she was detained that same day, Masha told OVD-Info: “The police came and took my dad. [They told me] that they would call child protection services soon”.

(...)

Bolding mine.

full: https://observers.france24.com/en/eu...ti-war-drawing

[Berzerker]

In other news, remember when Trump assassinated an Iranian general at the Baghdad airport? Turns out Shia Iraq was trying to broker peace between Iran and the Saudis and the general was bringing a deal to the Saudis via Iraq. Israel didn't like that, the allegation is Trump had the guy killed for Netanyahu.

Now China is stepping in to make peace between the Saudis and Iranians. Hell, all China has to do is follow us around if they want allies.

USA is the biggest terrorist in the world.

[Berzerker]

Russia took advantage of the protests to move to conquer Crimea and defeat Ukrainian regular armed forces in the Donbas.

Azov led the charge on the Donbas, the regular army was small and took time to build. It was volunteer militias that attacked the east. You're citing actions that came after the Maidan protests, the USA took advantage of those protests, not Russia.

If the Ukrainian right wing and their US benefactors held the power, how did they gain it? How would Ukraine have looked differently if the US had instead remained hands off in Ukraine? Would the unarmed Azov have not reacted to the sudden conquest of Crimea and a secession of the Donbas with reports of Russian troops backing it? The Separatists armed themselves (or maybe Russia did actually) Why not Azov?

Bribery and force, a coup and attacks on protesters. If the USA stayed out of it there would be no coup, no Azov, and no reason for eastern Ukrainians to separate. The separatists didn't attack Kiev, Azov attacked them.

When people reject a coup is it typical for a military force to form within a couple of weeks and defeat the regular armed forces? What if some people rejected the coup, some people celebrated it, and most people just wanted law and order?

It is when the coup backers start killing protesters. Separatists didn't defeat the Ukrainian army, they seized some govt buildings and were attacked for not supporting the coup.

Minsk kept the Donbas "in Ukraine" eh? There are also Russian brokered agreements that keeps South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova and Republic of Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan. How have those treaties worked out for Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan?

Yes, Minsk kept the Donbas in Ukraine. The west dangled Nato to Georgia and they attacked S Ossetia.

Minsk would bring peace to the Donbas is the same way Moscow's earlier treaties brought peace to Transnistria and South Ossetia.

Did Georgia stop attacking S Ossetia?

How can you complain about Ukraine and the evil West not keeping a treaty with Moscow which offered nothing at all to Ukraine?

When Russia intervened militarily the west agreed to Minsk because Ukraine was losing, the deal gave Ukraine time to build its military.

The offer to Ukraine was simple, peace. The treaty offered nothing to the USA, we didn't want peace.

You claim peace was breaking out and Boris flew in and re-kindled the war. How did this happen?

I didn't say peace was breaking out, a deal was in the works.

If you're right that "neocons toppled the Ukrainian govt and armed Azov to attack Ukrainians who didn't bend the knee leading to a proxy war on Russia's border." What if they had all bent the knee to leading to a proxy war on Russia's border? How would that have played out? Your premise is that there was no real grievance right? All of the fighting was the because the people in the Donbas didn't want to bend the knee and fight a proxy war and the Nazis wanted to bend the knee and fight a proxy war?

There wouldn't have been a proxy war on Russia's border, there would have been a cultural if not ethnic cleansing of Ukraine by Azov and the right wing. My premise? The people of the Donbas wanted greater autonomy, they got attacked instead and the Russian people wanted to help them, that happened regardless of what Putin wanted.

[Berzerker]

the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990

[Berzerker]

It matters because Russians believed Nato would not expand eastward. I have a bigger problem with my govt, they act in my name and with my $$$.

[Berzerker]

Gorby was cited as a valid source, now he isn't...

[Berzerker]

Keeping the Donbas in Ukraine was the rebuttal to the claim Putin wanted to take it and Ukraine's motive for starving Crimea is irrelevant, thats what they did.

[pchang]

I disagree. I think Berz has his TRUTH and unwilling to let anything disrupt that.

[PLATO]

I suspect that Berz knows the truth but is enthralled that he can keep getting responses from you. (And quite good ones for the most part!)

[PLATO]

No, my friend, there is no target to shoot at...only hot air.

[Geronimo]

How did Russia take advantage of protests? The power comes from the US and Ukrainian right wing, both wanted war. Zelensky beat Poroshenko in a landslide because Ukrainians wanted to end the war. Russia did not instigate Donbas, the people living there rejected the coup. Minsk kept the Donbas in Ukraine so your source's mindreading contradicts reality but claiming Nato negotiated a peace deal is absurd, when there was an early attempt after the war started Boris flew over to nix the deal.

How did neocons make this happen? They toppled the Ukrainian govt and armed Azov to attack Ukrainians who didn't bend the knee leading to a proxy war on Russia's border.

Russia took advantage of the protests to move to conquer Crimea and defeat Ukrainian regular armed forces in the Donbas.

If the Ukrainian right wing and their US benefactors held the power, how did they gain it? How would Ukraine have looked differently if the US had instead remained hands off in Ukraine? Would the unarmed Azov have not reacted to the sudden conquest of Crimea and a secession of the Donbas with reports of Russian troops backing it? The Separatists armed themselves (or maybe Russia did actually) Why not Azov?

When people reject a coup is it typical for a military force to form within a couple of weeks and defeat the regular armed forces? What if some people rejected the coup, some people celebrated it, and most people just wanted law and order?

Minsk kept the Donbas "in Ukraine" eh? There are also Russian brokered agreements that keeps South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova and Republic of Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan. How have those treaties worked out for Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan? Isn't also strange how many Russian passports Russian "peacekeepers" have been giving out in Georgia, Moldova and even Ukraine? Minsk would bring peace to the Donbas is the same way Moscow's earlier treaties brought peace to Transnistria and South Ossetia. Moscow would take control and keep its victim out. Also, what did Russia ever do to implement any of the Minsk agreements at all? How can you complain about Ukraine and the evil West not keeping a treaty with Moscow which offered nothing at all to Ukraine? The Donbas never was under the control of the Separatists. Not even half of it. Why are you sure the fighting was all Washington controlled nazi armies and not the standing separatists armies trying to grab the airport and other choice bits from Ukraine? Because that kind of fighting is what is generally looked like.

You claim peace was breaking out and Boris flew in and re-kindled the war. How did this happen? Do you have any evidence at all? How would things have looked different if there was a real conflict there that didn't require a British PM to stage it with secret orders to his helpless Ukrainian puppets? Can you imagine that at all? What makes that less plausible?

If you're right that "neocons toppled the Ukrainian govt and armed Azov to attack Ukrainians who didn't bend the knee leading to a proxy war on Russia's border." What if they had all bent the knee to leading to a proxy war on Russia's border? How would that have played out? Your premise is that there was no real grievance right? All of the fighting was the because the people in the Donbas didn't want to bend the knee and fight a proxy war and the Nazis wanted to bend the knee and fight a proxy war?

[Dinner]

There was never any promise to not expand NATO. We have gone over this. That is just a lie invented by Putin.

Putler is just mad because he can't attack countries he wants to attack. Boo hoo.

[Geronimo]

"In 1990, few gave the possibility of a broader NATO enlargement to the east any serious thought."

Because the deal wouldn't even allow expansion into E Germany

“The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years.” To be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement."

Why does it matter? Countries are free to exit NATO via article 13.

Russia has sought defense treaties with all of its neighbors. Does this force any NATO member to attack/special-military-operate against any other country? Could it even possibly? Why must NATO keep non-treaty promises to anyone at all which exclude anyone else from NATO membership?

Why do you have less problem with Russia attempting to invade its neighbors to discourage NATO expansion than you do with NATO trying to respect its neighbors to discourage Russian invasions?

[BeBMan]

Putin had no other choice, because Russia is encircled by countries not run by him.

[N35t0r]

Gorbachev said Georgia caused the war.

And Putin says Ukraine caused the war, so it's good we're straight on this as well.

We can thus also put the blame of causing WW2 squarely on the Allies.