Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Geronimo]

ure. But i don't see anyone claiming that 2k plus MBTs, antiques or otherwise, have been destroyed so the bottom line is that Russia still has the overwhelming majority of its tanks to throw into the war. It will be a while before it's appreciably less of an armored threat to Ukraine. If ever.

Furthermore, consider that the US lost more than 500 abrams in the Iraq occupation and despite that total representing a larger fraction of US tanks, nobody claims it was enough to substantially cripple it's military capability.

[Geronimo]

Not sure why I can't edit and select, let alone delete that unwanted laughing smiley

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[BlackCat]

Technically, this guy is petty pro ukraininan but also state bad things - am I the only watcher ?

https://www.youtube.com/c/RoadHomeMotorcycleVlogs

[Geronimo]

Geronimo - "US lost more than 500 abrams in the Iraq" I call BS! whats your source??? NOT EVEN CLOSE.

Abrams were extremely effective while in battle, causing big losses among enemy tanks (2000 Iraqi tanks destroyed). Only nine US M1 tanks were lost – seven were destroyed accidentally by friendly fire. and two of them were purposely destroyed to prevent capture. The only threat for the Abrams tank on the battlefield was… another Abrams tank.

now... more m1's have been lost - the M1's the US sold. The M1's that were sold with far less tech than US forces use. but nothing even near 500.

The military pretty much only regards them as destroyed if unrepairable but over 500 we're sufficiently damaged that they were useless pending stateside repairs.


I'm not convinced the tanks 'destroyed' in Ukraine are any worse damaged than those abrams.

[pchang]

I guess all those pictures of Russian tanks with their turrets blown clear off are “repairable” in you mind.

[BeBMan]

So this is actually about US tanks/stuff shipped back home and sitting in depots waiting for repairs, as opposed to T-72 and the likes rotting in the fields of Ukraine?

[N35t0r]

The military pretty much only regards them as destroyed if unrepairable but over 500 we're sufficiently damaged that they were useless pending stateside repairs.


I'm not convinced the tanks 'destroyed' in Ukraine are any worse damaged than those abrams.

So you say a tank that has had their ammo cook off and blow the turret several meters into the air could be repaired?

[Geronimo]

So you say a tank that has had their ammo cook off and blow the turret several meters into the air could be repaired?

That's not at all what I said. The numbers for destroyed Russian tanks never seem to set the bar that high. They even seem to include abandoned tanks in undamaged condition. If the numbers are broken down I'll reconsider.

[pchang]

Abandoned tanks towed away by Ukrainian farmers are still lost tanks as far as The Russian army is concerned.

[PLATO]

So...going back to the original poll...no chicken dinner for me either. Thank Goodness!

[PLATO]

Is anyone besides me sensing a lack of real information on where troop movements and front lines really are? Have both sides decided that information security might actually be a good idea? What happened to the Kharkiv counter-offensive? Why did it run out of steam? Is the Kheason counter-offensive a major push or just an opportunistic attack? Is it just me or is hard information starting to dry up some?

[N35t0r]

Darwinism and a better force focus means that Russia's troops are mostly slowly but surely making small advances in the east. The Ukrainian's possibilities for counterattacks are very limited, since they lack enough highly mobile elements for this.
Russia's ability to advance will keep deteriorating as they lose irreplaceable modern(ish) tanks and IFVs, smart munitions (it seems like they are barely using any buy now), and their air force continues to slowly lose effectiveness.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is slowly receiving more abscess equipment and has increasingly more time to train their troops with them, so it's too be expected that they'll continue to gain effectiveness with the coming months. Whether they'll be able to translate that info effective counterattacks it remains to be seen, although without tanks it will be difficult.

[BeBMan]

Is anyone besides me sensing a lack of real information on where troop movements and front lines really are? Have both sides decided that information security might actually be a good idea? What happened to the Kharkiv counter-offensive? Why did it run out of steam? Is the Kheason counter-offensive a major push or just an opportunistic attack? Is it just me or is hard information starting to dry up some?

My understanding is that Kharkiv was a success as it pushed Russian forces out of (common) artillery range of the city and reached the actual Russian border at some point. It basically ended then.

Kherson is not a large-scale counter offensive (yet), I read. There's talk and hopes about that, but if it ever materializes to actually retake Kherson we don't know.

Which is IMO the main pt - I think the info about the front lines available is ok, maybe not in every detail, but in general. Otoh we don't know how much of each side's resources are exhausted, how serious their losses are, what exact impact sanctions or further arms deliveries have/will have so it is hard to tell what the future developments are.

[Egbert]

Is anyone besides me sensing a lack of real information on where troop movements and front lines really are? Have both sides decided that information security might actually be a good idea? What happened to the Kharkiv counter-offensive? Why did it run out of steam? Is the Kheason counter-offensive a major push or just an opportunistic attack? Is it just me or is hard information starting to dry up some?

It could be poor journalism.

I think the quality of news has diminished appreciably in the past twenty years. There is also considerably less money to pay for journalism with so much advertising revenue moving from newspapers to social media which does do journalism.

[Proteus_MST]

Military briefing from the austrian military academy about the situation around Severodonetsk.
Unfortunately something that Serb will like ... nevertheless, it is an interesting and in-depth analysis of the situation there: