Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[BeBMan]

Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit applications to join Nato at the same time, the Swedish newspaper Expressen reports.

Both countries have agreed to announce their applications in the week of 16 to 22 May, during Finland’s president Sauli Niinistö’s visit to Stockholm, according to Swedish government sources.

(Guardian newstream)

[pchang]

The fight for Moldova may have already begun.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[N35t0r]

(Guardian newstream)

Eh, not 100% true.

Sweden asked Finland to hold on its application until that week so that if both apply, they will do so together.

The probability of either not applying is pretty slim by now, so it's not that big a difference.

[N35t0r]

It would be nice if Germany stopped buying Russian gas now instead of waiting till the end of the year. Maybe turn some of the nuclear plants back on?

Germany will not turn off Russian gas for the same reason US doesn't lower it's oil consumption (if the US lowered it's oil consumption to EU levels, the glut in oil prices worldwide would have an even bigger effect on the Russian economy).


The nuclear plants, shamefully, can't be easily turned back on. The phase-out has been planned for a really long while, and a lot of decisions were taken with this in mind. This would mean re-opening closed plants would be a lengthy and expensive process, and at that point you're better off investing that money on other stuff (like renewables, heat pumps to replace gas heating in buildings, LNG terminals).

Furthermore, only ~13% of German electricity comes from gas, and a similar percentage of all natural gas consumed is used for electricity generation, so even with the nuclear plants online, Germany would still need to import a ****ton of gas.

[self biased]

doesn't Germany use a lot of coal for its power? I remember reading several articles about that in the last few years.

[pchang]

There are reports that Russia has shut off gas to Poland.

[Broken_Erika]

And Bulgaria

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[pchang]

Neither - just a flex.

[N35t0r]

Poland has been working hard to diversify its gas sources, including new LNG terminals on the Baltic. They will pay a bit more, but will be fine. [Edit: also they have their gas storage reservoirs over 80% full]

Bulgaria I'm not sure.

At this point I wish Putin would cut off Germany, that way Scholz will have little more to grab onto and send more ****ing weapons already.

[pchang]

Putin can afford to cut off Poland and Bulgaria, but cutting it Germany would cost him real money.

[N35t0r]

It's probably a bigger % of the total now with the sanctions, but crude oil and oil refined product exports were more than 20 times the value of gas, so relatively gas is also small potatoes.

[N35t0r]

It also looks like gas is back on to Poland, and that Bulgaria is in a less than nice position. Over 90% of their gas comes from Russia, they do have reserves, and the government has said they will announce a plan to deal with it. At least it's spring and not fall.
It also seems that their government is about to dissolve, since one of the coalition members, the socialist party, is pro-putin, and has said they will leave the coalition if weapons are shipped to Ukraine (something that is increasingly probable).

[BeBMan]

Russia once again shows how much it likes all them Slavic brother people.

[N35t0r]

Nope, gas to Poland cut off. Russia has warned then not to tap off the yamal pipeline that carries had to other countries further down the line (or else what? They're going to cut their gas? lol)

Hmmm, same with Bulgaria, that's where the other pipeline that doesn't go through Ukraine is. Besides Nord Stream. Maybe they are trying to cause infighting among EU members? I don't know, strange

[Proteus_MST]

Nope, gas to Poland cut off. Russia has warned then not to tap off the yamal pipeline that carries had to other countries further down the line (or else what? They're going to cut their gas? lol)

Hmmm, same with Bulgaria, that's where the other pipeline that doesn't go through Ukraine is. Besides Nord Stream. Maybe they are trying to cause infighting among EU members? I don't know, strange

That surely is the intention ...
trying to split the almost completely united front of support that the EU and NATO countries present to Ukraine

Surely, aside from the ukrainian resistance, one of the worst surprises that Putin experienced during his invasion attempt