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If the US has 50k by May 1, that will be within the 1 sigma error band.
That suggests to me that 0.3% (And probably below) was within their error band.
JM
That suggests to me that 0.3% (And probably below) was within their error band.
JM
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Jon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment. -
I disagree. the error band is 2 sigma and a .02% (And probably above) was outside the error band. This assumes fatality curves of 1.5%Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post
Give or take.
Order of the Fly
Those that cannot curse, cannot heal.Comment
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Oh, I missed that it was a 2 sigma error band.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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More importantly you missed that providing policy advice based on error bands that wide is ****ing insane.
This was academic malfeasance. Those responsible must be held responsible so they can never do this again.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Policy response is not the responsibility of the academics. I haven't seen any evidence that their models were wrong.
There should have been leadership and risk assessment, which was lacking.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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Policy is most definitely the responsibility of academics in certain disciplines, and epidemiology is one of them. They lit a political fuse, they are responsible for the explosion.
**** them.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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And they would have been wrong to not lite the political fuse. If the IFR was 10% (Which also looked possible at one point) we would have said they should have been more aggressive. It still may be the case that they saved 100-500k lives in the Western world.
The ones who are responsible for weighing deaths, illnesses and economic problems are not the academics.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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So, with the POTUS basically chanting, "Death to Americans", what should the enemies of the USA counter with? Asking for a friend...There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.Comment
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I wish one of the extremely rich, white men physically close to Trump at his daily pep rally would turn to him on camera and say “No. You’re a president not a king, you’re a crook and a phony and a moron, too mean and stupid to be allowed to destroy the nation we love.”“Everybody feels the evil, but no one has courage or energy enough to seek the cure,” Alexis de Tocqueville wrote of Americans in 1830. Again, why?Why are Americans so obedient, so servile? That isn’t the image they hope to show the world but there they are, a herd of sheep in Trump’s presence, baaa-ing approvingly.
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star...president.htmlWe the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham LincolnComment
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The Flu-Klux Klan... good name for the heavily armed whites protesting anti-virus safety. They should be disarmed and imprisoned.There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.Comment
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Yes, I love watching the nurses stand up to themWe the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham LincolnComment
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DoubleLast edited by Ted Striker; April 22, 2020, 14:00.We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham LincolnComment
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trump and anti trump forces are neck and neck in a race to the bottom of the barrel
two trashy ass camps who need to be history
as in past
gone
forgotten like chester arthurComment
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I'd classify both American political parties as outright terrorist organizations
operating as criminal conspiracies
across international borders
engaged in policies of crimes against humanity
they deserve nothing less than complete incarceration
the prisons should be filled with public officials and private "elites"Comment
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Apparently, this can all be explained by Sean Hannity.“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of ManComment
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