Krexit

[Elok]

So, the Kurds just voted yes on independence. It's a nonbinding popular vote, but the Iraqi Supreme Court ordered them not to, and they gave said court the finger. I don't know what this means. I don't know how likely they are to act on this, or if anybody would be on their side in the dogpile that followed. I do wish the Kurds well, but I don't see this ending well for them. Even if Trump happens to intervene on their side, they can't rely on him any more than anyone else can. Without him, it's them against Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and IS combined. With support from Russia. The best thing I can say in their favor is that nobody expected Israel to survive either, back in the day.

Do any of you know more about this, and care to weigh in?

[Elok]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/turkey-warns-iraq-kurds-it-can-close-the-valves-on-oil-exports

So, yeah, doesn't look good for them. What with all their neighbors hating them, and their being landlocked, they'd be economically starved if they tried anything.

[Ben Kenobi]

ISIS isn't really a factor as they have no borders with Kurdistan. Syria won't be able to do much, neither will Iraq. That leaves Erdogan and Iran. Could the Kurds beat Turkey? Not sure. We may find out pretty soon.

[Dinner]

There will not be any indepwndence. The main point of this is that it os right before Kurdish Parliamentary elections so Barzani (head of the KDP) wants to work his base up into a frenzy. Barzani is not much fpr tge democratic process and has suspended the regional parlement for most of the last five years because they were getting in the way of his one man dictatorship.

[Proteus_MST]

ISIS isn't really a factor as they have no borders with Kurdistan. Syria won't be able to do much, neither will Iraq. That leaves Erdogan and Iran. Could the Kurds beat Turkey? Not sure. We may find out pretty soon.

Considering that Turkey is the nation with the most tanks, I doubt so (despie he fact that they neither are the newest ones, nor that their crews are the best trained ones). Not to forget the fact that there is really noone who supports the kurdish independence ... not even the USA.

Therefore I guess this referendum will become a sidenote in history very soon

[rah]

They've always seemed to be helpful to US goals in the past and we keep sticking it to them. I doubt this will be any different. Part of me wishes otherwise.

[Ben Kenobi]

Considering that Turkey is the nation with the most tanks, I doubt so (despie he fact that they neither are the newest ones, nor that their crews are the best trained ones). Not to forget the fact that there is really noone who supports the kurdish independence ... not even the USA.

Therefore I guess this referendum will become a sidenote in history very soon

The same might have been said about a certain colonial federation going up against a superpower.

[Elok]

They've always seemed to be helpful to US goals in the past and we keep sticking it to them. I doubt this will be any different. Part of me wishes otherwise.

Yeah, they seem like very sane and reasonable people for the most part, and they've looked after persecuted minorities when nobody else gave a damn. I also think Turkey frankly deserves to lose its eastern half. But it won't happen, and it's irresponsible to encourage something that will only bring suffering. Sigh.

[rah]

Well the US has done it before. why stop now.

[Cort Haus]

So, the Kurds just voted yes on independence. It's a nonbinding popular vote, but the Iraqi Supreme Court ordered them not to, and they gave said court the finger. I don't know what this means. I don't know how likely they are to act on this, or if anybody would be on their side in the dogpile that followed. I do wish the Kurds well, but I don't see this ending well for them. Even if Trump happens to intervene on their side, they can't rely on him any more than anyone else can. Without him, it's them against Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and IS combined. With support from Russia. The best thing I can say in their favor is that nobody expected Israel to survive either, back in the day.

Do any of you know more about this, and care to weigh in?

They have the backing of Israel, who have a relationship with the Kurds going back decades, as well as the unnoficial support of US, who ISTR have a history of using them and ditching them. The Barzani leadership is associated with corruption, robbing banks to secure funds, and collaboration at times with ISIS, while fighting them at other times. In Syria they consitute 8% of the population but control 20% of the land and 40% of the oil reserves, though this could change if the SAA and SDF come into conflict, or if a deal is cut with Damascus.

[Elok]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41641563

Tanks in Kirkuk. That didn't take long. Poor buggers.

[Proteus_MST]

And the IS will be happy, with Iraq and the Kurds busy with themselves, the last IS territtories might survive a few weeks longer

[Dinner]

The Iraqi government is seizing disputed areas such as oil rich Kirkuk (where I have been before) to take them away from Kurdish control. It is a blantant resource grab by the central government.

[I AM MOBIUS]

ISIS isn't really a factor as they have no borders with Kurdistan. Syria won't be able to do much, neither will Iraq. That leaves Erdogan and Iran. Could the Kurds beat Turkey? Not sure. We may find out pretty soon.

You ****ing idiot! You don't have a blind clue about anything do you?

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[I AM MOBIUS]

The Iraqi government is seizing disputed areas such as oil rich Kirkuk (where I have been before) to take them away from Kurdish control. It is a blantant resource grab by the central government.

And you're just as bad as BK. The Iraqi government has merely retaken a part of Iraq back under its control. It's not part of the Kurdish region - the best you can say about the Kurds is they were minding it after the ensuing power vacuum during the ISIS attacks that took Mosul.

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