Okay, what can we realistically expect from a Trump presidency?

[Ellestar]

So when are you going to hold your government accountable for all its failings on the economy?

The fact that all of you westerners are missing is that out our last, let's say, four economies, last one is the best.

1) Russian Empire. Couldn't even sustain a war, gone broke and fallen apart.
2) USSR. Also gone broke because of mismanagement.
3) 1990s, Perestroika and Yeltsin. We were reciveving food aid from USA. Enough said.
4) Putin times. We're doing ok so far compared to previous three.

So, while changes can make it better, it's much more likely it will become worse. Like, you know, in Ukraine right now. They wanted economic changes, and they got mid-Africa GDP. That's a big change indeed, in a wrong direction but at least they got changes.

Of course, there were Stalin times when our economy was growing faster than any. And Stalin is the most popular leader in Russia (our government was very embarassed when they got that result in official poll, and tried to hide it but such things are hard to hide). And yes, it would have been nice to have Stalin instead of Putin, but i don't think you Westerners really want something like that to happen. So be careful in what you wish. Despite what you may think, Putin is one of the moderates.

[Proteus_MST]

...And Stalin is the most popular leader in Russia (our government was very embarassed when they got that result in official poll, and tried to hide it but such things are hard to hide).
And yes, it would have been nice to have Stalin instead of Putin, but i don't think you Westerners really want something like that to happen. ...

I can only explain this with people having been polled, who didn't have to live under Stalin.

I guess the thousands of people who went to Gulags due to Stalins Paranoia wouldn't want to have Stalin back ... neither would the Jews who were exposed to later Stalin era soviet antisemitism want to have Stalin back.
Or those who were victims in any other way by Stalins secret police, the NKVD

[Bereta_Eder]

Gulags existed in the west too, lest we forget also secret police and sh!t. West was never about democracy. US/UK just used the cold war to sell more pretzels and stiffle the competition.

About the metaphysical in RUssia, it is a fact that happens when things are going ok

[Giancarlo]

The fact that all of you westerners are missing is that out our last, let's say, four economies, last one is the best.

1) Russian Empire. Couldn't even sustain a war, gone broke and fallen apart.
2) USSR. Also gone broke because of mismanagement.
3) 1990s, Perestroika and Yeltsin. We were reciveving food aid from USA. Enough said.
4) Putin times. We're doing ok so far compared to previous three.

So, while changes can make it better, it's much more likely it will become worse. Like, you know, in Ukraine right now. They wanted economic changes, and they got mid-Africa GDP. That's a big change indeed, in a wrong direction but at least they got changes.

Of course, there were Stalin times when our economy was growing faster than any. And Stalin is the most popular leader in Russia (our government was very embarassed when they got that result in official poll, and tried to hide it but such things are hard to hide). And yes, it would have been nice to have Stalin instead of Putin, but i don't think you Westerners really want something like that to happen. So be careful in what you wish. Despite what you may think, Putin is one of the moderates.

From bad to bad to bad.

Your economy is shrinking. You rely on high oil prices. You know if Trump really pursues the keystone pipeline that could kill oil prices further? I don't get your country.

Ukraine was put under stress by your country's illegal invasion and sabotage.

Your country has been in a recession for two years, shedding 15-20% of its GDP. How is that a good thing? Or doing okay?

[C0ckney]

It's the only constitutional way to get around habeas corpus other than an amendment. There is no chance of passing such an amendment.

Removing the courts from the deportation system guarantees many citizens will also be deported.

no. you see what you've done here is that you've not understood what i've said, and instead of asking me what i mean, you've substituted your own interpretation and decided that that is what we're talking about. let's not go down that road again, please.

people who have a right to live and work in the US, whether they be citizens or legal immigrants, surely have a way to prove the same. so they would be asked to produce this proof within a certain (short) time period. if this is really difficult (and i don't think it is; it isn't in other countries), then perhaps an ID card could be introduced for legal immigrants/temporary workers, which they would be required to carry with them. as for deportation, if someone suspected of being an illegal immigrant fails to prove their right to live/work, then they get deported to their country of origin. as you say, it may be necessary to get the courts to rubber stamp such decisions, but this needn't take long; it doesn't elsewhere.

Declines in GDP are known as recessions or depressions. Standards of living do not fare well.

Illegals do pay taxes, they don't generally get any form of welfare and can't avail of many government services. They generally don't get subsidized, quite the opposite.

a beggar coming to US would increase its GDP; he would not make it richer, though, nor raise its standard of living. the same is true of many legal immigrants to the US, particularly those who come from mexico and central america, who are normally poorer, less educated, etc. than the native population and therefore require more social support. illegal immigrants are likely to be poorer and less educated still; and i suspect that the main factor is a lack of education. they do, as you say, pay sales taxes and property taxes, and some even pay income taxes and SS contributions, although since they normally earn very low wages, the amount paid must be quite modest; moreover, most work for cash with no taxes paid, and their employers also do not pay payroll taxes and suchlike.

i'm pretty sure that illegal immigrants send their children to school, require medical treatment in some form or another and use various other taxpayer funded services; indeed i remember reading about cases to with illegals fighting to obtain or maintain access to college grants and similar, and it seems that many are able to receive such benefits despite not being entitled to them. it is well known in europe that far from being a net positive to public finances, illegal immigrants, and third world immigrants in general, are big drains on them. i find it hard to believe that the same is not true of the US.

Because of the jobs most illegals perform they don't drive down wages for others directly. These are or would be be minimum wage jobs if above-board. Where it does hurt the economy is how low wages hurt their purchasing power, reducing the affluence of consumers in general, which undermines sales, profits, and thus wages in other industries.

Reducing them to 0 won't help.

this goes against all the evidence from europe and the UK, which is clear about the negative effect that both legal and illegal migrations has on working class wages and conditions. it is also, frankly, obvious that increasing supply at the bottom end of the labour market decreases the price of that labour.

We'd be better off as a nation paying them more and giving them a path to citizenship... but it's generally the Trump supporters and various other parts of the R coalition who don't want that.

well of course i agree with that, which is one reason i suggested that a crackdown on illegal immigrants could be combined with reforms to the legal immigration system. i don't believe that anything that can be seen as 'rewarding' illegals can or will be done, however.

[Proteus_MST]

I will hold a protest here today. I'll be outside marching through the hills with a sign that protests protesters.

The logical next step would be a counter-countermovement.
I.e. protesters protesting the protesters who protest the protesters

[Ellestar]

Ukraine was put under stress by your country's illegal invasion and sabotage.

Let's not forget European Union Association Agreement that destroyed their industry (because EU doesn't need their industrial stuff). And they use their yearly agricultural duty free quotas in march-april. Basically, duty free EU quotas for Ukraine are set at about 10% of their export to EU, as if to mock Ukraine.

Your country has been in a recession for two years, shedding 15-20% of its GDP. How is that a good thing? Or doing okay?

Actually, down 1.8% (1.2% and then 0.6% year-on-year) in last two years because of sanctions, and industrial production is already growing. Given the sanctions and oil prices, it's not that bad.

[Lorizael]

Really not sure if OP was answered.

[Elok]

Until recently, "realistically" was not commonly held to include the notion of a "Trump presidency," so it's hard to say where we ought to go with this.

[Lorizael]

Until recently, "realistically" was not commonly held to include the notion of a "Trump presidency," so it's hard to say where we ought to go with this.

Considering my most recent post in the other thread, this is kind of spooky. Maybe psychic powers are real?

[C0ckney]

indeed. as i pointed out earlier, just about every prediction about trump has turned out to be false, so people should be cautious when making them.

[giblets]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-administration-cabinet_us_58249c70e4b01019814da7f9

Meet the team that will make America great again:

WASHINGTON ― Now that the election is over, the D.C. ritual of jockeying for top positions in the next administration has begun. Insiders give the press names of candidates who are real possibilities; long shots, just to see what reaction they get; friends and, sometimes, even themselves.

So far, the names being floated for a Donald Trump administration largely have one thing in common: They’re men. And for the most part, they’re white men. BuzzFeed obtained one list of 41 names under consideration for Cabinet and top White House positions. Of those, only six are women. In other news stories listing potential appointees, no women are named.

Many of them are also fringe figures ― people who have never been in government or who have been out of government for some time and are itching to get back in.

Trump did not have the support of much of the Republican establishment, and many of the officials who would traditionally get into an administration now may be hesitant to do so for a leader they distrust. Trump may also block them since they didn’t support him. Meanwhile, some figures who have been lurking on the fringe may now have found a home with this unlikely president-elect.

Here are the people being discussed so far for some top positions:

Transition Chair: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is currently leading Trump’s transition efforts, but if he no longer can ― he’s been tainted, for example, by the Bridgegate scandal ― tech billionaire Peter Thiel could replace him. Thiel secretly funded Hulk Hogan’s lawsuit that took down Gawker.com and once wrote that women getting the vote was bad for democracy.

White House Chief of Staff: Two top candidates for this leading role are believed to be Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman, and Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s first campaign manager who is currently a paid commentator for CNN. Steve Bannon, the chairman of the conservative Breitbart News who took a leave to be Trump’s campaign CEO, is another contender. Bannon’s website has peddled some of the major alt-right conspiracy theories and spread the vitriolic rhetoric that fueled Trump’s rise. Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway and veteran conservative operative David Bossie are other possibilities.

Attorney General: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) is frequently talked about as a contender. Giuliani told CNN Thursday he would consider the job “if it really was just me and I couldn’t point to three others that would be just as good or better.” New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) has also been talked about as a front-runner, as have Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) and Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi (R). During the campaign, questions were raised about whether Trump improperly made campaign contributions to Bondi’s re-election effort to influence whether she investigated allegations against Trump University.

The attorney general oversees the Justice Department and enforces areas like civil rights. Giuliani has boasted that he made New York “safe” by implementing “stop and frisk,” a policing method that disproportionately affects black people and Latinos. He has also said “anything’s legal” during war. Two of Christie’s former top aides were recently convicted of conspiracy and fraud in the Bridgegate scandal, and their testimony has implicated the governor in their schemes.

Secretary of State: Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) are reportedly under consideration for this top job.

Defense Secretary: Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), one of Trump’s earliest supporters, has been mentioned as a possible defense secretary, as has retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who has also been floated as national security adviser. Although Flynn is being talked about, he actually can’t be Defense Secretary yet because he hasn’t been retired from the military for enough time. Other names are Stephen Hadley, who served as a top national security official to President George W. Bush; Rep. Duncan Hunter Jr. (R-Calif.) and former Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.).

Homeland Security Secretary: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) and Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke are on the list for this position. Clarke, who is African-American, has been a forceful critic of the Black Lives Matter movement and spoke at the Republican National Convention. He also called for Trump supporters to bring out “pitchforks and torches” to fight a rigged system. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) is also a possible pick. The department includes the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency that the senator argues should ramp up its deportations.

Interior Secretary: Forrest Lucas, a California oil executive, is considered a top contender. Venture capitalist Robert Grady and fracking mogul Harold Hamm are also being discussed, as are three women: former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R), Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin (R) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Treasury Secretary: Steven Mnuchin, the former Goldman Sachs executive who was finance chair of Trump’s campaign, is reportedly on the short list. Trump received a significant amount of criticism when he unveiled his 13-member economic advisory team in August. There were six men named Steve on the list ― including Mnuchin ― but not a single woman. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon is also under consideration, although he has said he would not be interested in the role. Other names are Wall Street veteran Carl Icahn and Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), who is chair of the House Financial Services Committee.

Education Secretary: Neurosurgeon and former GOP presidential candidate Ben Carson is being discussed for this post, as is Hoover Institution fellow Williamson Evers, who also worked in the Education Department during George W. Bush’s administration.

Commerce Secretary: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) and former Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.) make this list as well, as do former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.). In the business world, financier Lew Eisenberg ― who also chaired a joint fundraising committee for Trump and the Republican National Committee ― is being discussed, along with the former CEO of steelmaker Nucor Dan DiMicco and billionaire investor Wilbur Ross.

Health and Human Services Secretary: Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and former New Jersey state Sen. Rich Bagger (R) are the names at the top of the list.

Agriculture Secretary: One of the names on this list is Texas Agricultural Commissioner Sid Miller, who called Hillary Clinton a “c**t” on Twitter. Other names include Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R), Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman (R), former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), National Council of Farmer Cooperatives CEO Chuck Conner, agribusiness leader Charles Herbster, Indiana dairy executive Mike McCloskey, Iowa agribusiness mogul Bruce Rastetter and Indiana farmer and congressional candidate Kip Tom.

Energy Secretary: Fracking mogul Harold Hamm and venture capitalist Robert Grady are the two names most frequently mentioned.

Labor Secretary: Victoria Lipnic, commissioner of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission since 2010, is frequently mentioned for this position.

Veterans Affairs: House Veterans Affairs Committee Chairman Jeff Miller (R-Fla.), who is retiring from Congress, is the man most discussed for this job.

[rah]

Save that list. We'll see how close it is when the actual cabinet is put together. I'll be interested in seeing who the TOKEN members will be.

[BeBMan]

Really not sure if OP was answered.

I'm increasingly disappointed by our inability to predict the future. Fortunately there are still some brave polytubbies out there who know what will follow, and tell us about the consequences of everything.

[rah]

Yeah, if the last year has shown us anything, the futility of predicting should be at the top of the list.

Thank god companies that do it for a living get paid regardless of the results.