So, a funny thing happened in Iowa..

[Al B. Sure!]

I don't think Kentonio knows enough about Americans to accurately appraise Bernie Sanders' chances. Bernie is so beyond the pale of American values, so alien to even Democratic demographic groups, that he will get trounced unless the other choice is someone as abysmal as Trump or Cruz.

Every key Democratic constituency (unions, minorities, women) is so solidly pro-Clinton that she has had the nomination locked up since last year.

Let's get real: Bernie will never get Black, Hispanic, or blue-collar white votes. He'll do well in whitebread and affluent Iowa, New Hampshire, and Vermont, but would fall apart in the South, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, etc.

You think a legion of Bernie-supporting 20 year old white college students can just descend on places like Birmingham, Alabama and Camden, New Jersey and win their votes? You think they will be heard in Brooklyn or North Philadelphia?

The Democratic party machine that brings out the minority and poor vote is one built up over decades through neighborhood institutions and social networks. That machine is so attached to the Clinton brand that Bernie Sanders does not have a prayer. He and his supporters are the outsiders.


To re-iterate my prediction: Bernie will have good showings in Iowa and New Hampshire but will be destroyed in South Carolina, Alabama, and every state that has large urban and minority populations.

[kentonio]

I don't think Kentonio knows enough about Americans to accurately appraise Bernie Sanders' chances. Bernie is so beyond the pale of American values, so alien to even Democratic demographic groups, that he will get trounced unless the other choice is someone as abysmal as Trump or Cruz.

Yes of course I don't, you arrogant dick, I've only been following his campaign pretty much daily for the last 6 months along with the polling, local campaign group discussions and pretty much every other aspect of the race.

Every key Democratic constituency (unions, minorities, women) is so solidly pro-Clinton that she has had the nomination locked up since last year.

Which is why she's heavily behind in New Hampshire and at best neck and neck in Iowa with Nevada also closing by the day.

Let's get real: Bernie will never get Black, Hispanic, or blue-collar white votes. He'll do well in whitebread and affluent Iowa, New Hampshire, and Vermont, but would fall apart in the South, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, etc.

Which is why he just picked up 3 large Latino press endorsements in Nevada this week and has rapidly rising numbers amongst Latinos in Nevada and blacks in SC. Oh and is pulling in huge support from independents, especially blue collar white workers.

You think a legion of Bernie-supporting 20 year old white college students can just descend on places like Birmingham, Alabama and Camden, New Jersey and win their votes?

The idea that Sanders support is just 20 year old white college students has been rebutted so many times that you should actually be embarrased with yourself for repeating it. He is very strong amongst millenials, but that is only a part of his national support.

The Democratic party machine that brings out the minority and poor vote is one built up over decades through neighborhood institutions and social networks. That machine is so attached to the Clinton brand that Bernie Sanders does not have a prayer. He and his supporters are the outsiders.

No **** they're the outsiders, they're the outsiders who have gone from 3% in the polls to kicking Hillary's ass in the opening primary states. It's ok though, you being American and all, you clearly know everything already about a race that you very clearly haven't actually paid a lot of attention to.

[Ben Kenobi]

Let's get real: Bernie will never get Black, Hispanic, or blue-collar white votes. He'll do well in whitebread and affluent Iowa, New Hampshire, and Vermont, but would fall apart in the South, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, etc

Uh, why would Bernie do worse than Hillary in that regard?

[Al B. Sure!]

Nice to see your debating style has not yet matured beyond name-calling, Kentonio.

[kentonio]

Nice to see your debating style has not yet matured beyond name-calling, Kentonio.

Funny coming from a guy who just stumbled into a conversation about something he knows little about, and started condescending the thread starter based on their nationality. Because like its not possible that one of those foreign types might actually know anything bout Murika right?

[DinoDoc]

Funny coming from a guy who just stumbled into a conversation about something he knows little about, and started condescending the thread starter based on their nationality. Because like its not possible that one of those foreign types might actually know anything bout Murika right?

You don't really have a good record of predicting elections.

[kentonio]

You don't really have a good record of predicting elections.

Considering the only misstep I made was betting too early (while saying it was too early to bet) my record is pretty good. Want to talk about how badly you called the last general election?

[DinoDoc]

Considering the only misstep I made was betting too early (while saying it was too early to bet) my record is pretty good. Want to talk about how badly you called the last general election?

I was pretty damn accurate in my prediction that the Ted Cruz shutdown wouldn't hurt the GOP in the midterms.

Re Sanders: You appear to badly overestimate his appeal among key Democratic constituencies (specifically the Black vote). Until he manages to cut into Clinton's support among those groups, he's embarrassing for her and her Party but he doesn't pose a critical threat to her quest for the nomination as much as I'd hope he's the Dem nominee.

[Ben Kenobi]

I was pretty damn accurate in my prediction that the Ted Cruz shutdown wouldn't hurt the GOP in the midterms.

Probably helped them. They ran better in 2014, than they would now thanks to Boehner/McConnell's rubberstamps.

[kentonio]

I was pretty damn accurate in my prediction that the Ted Cruz shutdown wouldn't hurt the GOP in the midterms.

You did indeed, and fair play to you for it. Although its fair to add the Dems contributed to that by shooting themselves in the foot as always.

Re Sanders: You appear to badly overestimate his appeal among key Democratic constituencies (specifically the Black vote). Until he manages to cut into Clinton's support among those groups, he's embarrassing for her and her Party but he doesn't pose a critical threat to her quest for the nomination as much as I'd hope he's the Dem nominee.

Not really, I've said since he entered that he was a longshot, but he's already made major inroads into basically all her bases with the exception of the black vote (slight gain but not nearly enough yet). The polls show him rapidly eating into the other demographics where she was previously very safe though, and he's pulling in some good AA surrogates like Nina Turner who are working hard on his behalf. The main question I believe is whether the post NH/Iowa press bump helps push SC closer. He doesn't need to win it, but if he can lose by 10 points or less then she's in real trouble, especially if he pulls Nevada to at least a draw.

I think (and this is controversial) that despite the long standing belief that you can't win the Dem nomination without the black vote, that this campaign might actually disprove that to some small degree. If he can get the white independents who had long abandoned the party to turn up for the primary then there is less of a reliance to carry the mass of the black vote to victory. It's a shame in a way because his civil rights record is a hell of a lot stronger than Hillarys and it feels like a natural demographic for him, but its the one group he's having the most trouble with so far.

[kentonio]

Probably helped them. They ran better in 2014, than they would now thanks to Boehner/McConnell's rubberstamps.

They got the victory they did because it was the lowest turnout since WW2. In both 2010 and 2014 the progressive base was feeling very abandoned and unmotivated.

[Ben Kenobi]

They got the victory they did because it was the lowest turnout since WW2. In both 2010 and 2014 the progressive base was feeling very abandoned and unmotivated.

Will be an interesting election in 2016. I think Trump or Cruz will win handily against Hillary. What does she offer? Panache? I just don't see what's in it for people to vote for her over, say, Bernie. I can definitely see the support for Bernie. Really, Bernie should be running the 'Adlai Stevenson' campaign against her - she's already lost in the primaries before.

The major difference between the two comes down to pure name recognition. If Bernie can just get out there and work on that he should be fine.

[Dinner]

I disagree with Al. Polls show Bernie does very well in places like California and New York though I do agree he is unlikely to get much traction in the south.

[kentonio]

South Carolina..



Interesting.

In the November poll, Clinton lead Sanders 82% to 14% among African American voters (a whopping 68 point lead for Clinton). In the December poll, she lead 78% to 19% (a 59 point lead). In the January poll, she leads 76% to 22% (a 54 point lead). This means that Sanders has gained 14 points among African American voters during that time. Sanders is slowly winning over some African American voters while Clinton is losing them. Among white voters, Sanders went from losing them 42%-57% in November to winning them 60%-38% now (a 37 point gain for Sanders).

http://http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/01/24/1474574/-Bernie-Sanders-seems-to-be-surging-in-South-Carolina

[Kidlicious]

So you don't know what either communism or socialism mean or the differences between them. Ok then..

Here's a spoiler for you, actual socialists (not communists) think Bernie is nothing more than a slightly left wing capitalist.

You went full ******. Never go full ******!

Well it seems you've bounced from one stupid extreme to the other, and missed the huge vibrant bit in the middle. Back in the time that everyone raves about America being great, top rates of tax were high as ****, yet somehow people still had jobs, the economy still grew and America managed to remain the world leader and strangely didn't 'destroy' itself. Over the past 30 years or so the rich have gotten wildly richer, and the working folks have gotten poorer. So please explain to me why a democratic socialist like Sanders calling for a top rate of tax of 52% on people earning over $10 million is suddenly going to destroy America?

He's going to destroy America because he's a socialist. He's going to keep spending other people's money until he totally ****s up the economy and we have to beg like Greece does right now.

Please show me proof that the poor have gotten poorer.