what happened to the großrossiya thread

[Dinner]

http://www.tovima.gr/en/article/?aid=766291

I told you they would merge the dozen or so different state pension funds into one big doomed fund which is bankrupt. Then the rationalizing will happen where judges declare obligations are far in excess of what money there actually is in the account and then will determine how much realistically can actually be paid. If they are lucky the government might pitch in some but honestly it is broke without a pot to piss in.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/04/greeces-economic-crisis-goes-on-odyssey-without-end

Even the Guardian is saying for closure laws will have to be reformed, that privitizations will have to go ahead (many were supposed to be done by now but the government had been refusing until it once again started to run out of cash), and laws to liberalize the economy passed.

[Dinner]

http://www.ekathimerini.com/204749/article/ekathimerini/business/greece-arab-turkish-fund-sign-400-mln-euro-deal-on-luxury-resort

After blocking it for almost a year the PM has figured out no more money will be offered unless privitizations go ahead. So he is unblocking a few but not many. It is good to finally see a few start but really the whole lot needs to go on the block. That will limit government costs, get the assets into productive hands, and actually raise money to pay down debt.

[Bereta_Eder]

Quick replies:

what I mean by the EU keychain is that the EU is very ill prepared to deal with another greek-EU fallout this year than it has been before and the gov is ready to fight untill this time the "accident" of a grexit does happen.

Pensions: what I said is that under the proposed plan current pensions will not be cut. If you read the proposal you'll notice something called "personal difference re-supply" or something like that. That means that all reductions in current pensions due to the new calcutation method will be covered by the state (through banking taxes)

Yes, this actually puts the burden on next generations (like mine ), but let's be honest. The EU is not going to last (in its current state anyway)


The debt is unpayable. Everyone knows that.

The privitizations cannot be done because the envisioned 50 bill bucket that will result from them is a convenient lie told by the creditors. Even the PM said it is a lie DIRECTLY to them but he signed the memorandum anyway because the alternative would have been worse, at that time

[Bereta_Eder]

Foreclosures are also impossible to be done and are thus guaranteed by the creditors as well.

The only exception are second and third houses (mostly country sea side houses) whose mortage is not paid or VERY expensive first residences who's mortage is not served at all.

That's a non issue

[Bereta_Eder]

As for the asteras hotel resort being privitized, I don't care as long as the laws about enviromental protection and architecural urban harmony are respected by the buyers.
They are, so no problem.

[Bereta_Eder]

Also the people are prepared for a grexit.

There was only one reason why that didn't happen last time.
Deposits.
Now the deposits are out of the dangerous banks, so to say.

Noone will lose his money.

In the case of intransigent and unrealistic creditor demands, the main obstacle for a grexit has been removed.

The eurozone will probably not survive it especially as another pillar of the common entity, the schengen treaty is also coming apart at the seams.

Besides that, I think it is high time we contemplate calmly a euroexit in the event of more unrealistic and dishonest creditor demands.

It will not be easy, actually it will be pretty hard for some months, but everything to mitigate citizen's fortune losses is already done

[Dinner]

http://www.ekathimerini.com/204782/article/ekathimerini/news/govt-sends-pension-proposal-to-lenders-without-opposition-support

The government passes the pension reform plan and sent it to creditors for approval. I doubt it will be approved.

[Dinner]

If you guys ride out the program successfully there is a debt write down promised. If the government would act faster than it will happen sooner.

[Bereta_Eder]

As I said it will all depend on the creditor's wisdom or lack of.

A debt write off (in the form of payment extensions or unilateral reserve of payments) will happen one way or another

[Saras]

Latvia is completely destroyed and will never recover.

This is factually untrue.

[dannubis]

When BE goes full commie greek mode facts don't matter...

[NICE MOBIUS]

Normally facts cease to matter for him well before full commie greek mode...

[Bereta_Eder]

I'm not in full commie mode I just got a semi

Latvia has the lowest wage per hour: just 2 dollars.

One in 6 has migrated. Its population is down to 1957 levels. That's the reason umeployment is down.

It had a 20% contraction. Even with the current growth level (that is unsustainable anyway) it will someday reach its 1987 levels of GDP.

Its social state is dismantled. Schools that can't afford electricity are shut down.

All the baltics are the poorest EU members and have undergone brutal austerity.

The only reason they accepted that is to prove they are "good northern europeans" because they have recently gained their independece from Russia and don't want the chance to lose it again.

I respect that.

I never said differently.

But the facts differ.

Latvia's and the others debt was just 10% of GDP.

Italy Greece etc have 130% and 190% respectively.


Those are different cases.

It is wrong to lump them all together.

It will never work

[Bereta_Eder]

One can say: wtf? how did you accumualte such a big debt.

Short story: the debt was around 110% when the austerity program started.
It is now 190% because the austerity program failed (it was wrong, things were not done as they should, take your pick)

Normally how med countries dealed with rising debt was small deflation and mild austerity measures.

And after a while BOOM! ( right back on track.

[Bereta_Eder]

Italy and Spain SHOULD have undergone the same austerity measures that were forced on Greece.
The only reason they didn't was merely the size of their economy and the fact that putting them in a memorandum (it was 100% sure) would wreck their economies (just as it did on Greece)
A collapsed Italian or Spanish economy is something that Germany can't support and that's why they were given fiscal leeway.

The only somewhat pararel case is Portugal but even then the debt was relatively small 75% of GDP (since they didn't get loans like it was christmas, that's true. Why the greek politicians did it, was simply because they bought social cohesion with the money of the future generations. This is happening all over, but we are exceptional. The train coming was known from 2007 onward but greek politicians didn't do the necessairy reforms because they wanted to live up to their titles (of greek politicians))

That's all ancient history.

What we have here now though, is what some might call, an impasse
(it usually happens when the initial responce is punitive and vindictive)