Exit Polls Suggest Syriza Has Won Greek Election

[Dauphin]

How do risk free interest rates fit in to your worldview?

[Fake Boris]

Right off the bat, I'd say there is no such thing as the market thinking the probability of default is 0, even in the case of a negative real or even gross interest.

[Dauphin]

I guess my question was too subtle. Why not quote the CDS market rate? I don't see how a nominal interest rate you quote implies a risk is perceived, as the largest part of that figure is not attributable to the risk rate.

[Fake Boris]

Why? There must be value to protecting capital, even should the cost be its erosion.

If you know what is the CDS market rate on US bonds, share it. It's probably very low, but existent (educated guess).

[Dauphin]

You again miss the point, that is interest comprises more than just default risk. Quoting an interest rate with no other consideration is like saying it's 20 outside without stating the units and claiming it's warm.

CDS rates can be found easily online, go find it if you want it.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Should we start a poll on GRexit date?

I like May 9th weekend, to pre-empt the inevitable.

[C0ckney]

i'll go with may 1st.

[Bereta_Eder]

Wouldn't want to spoil the party but at this point a Grexit would be, erm, difficult. So I don't know if at this particular point I'm in favor of it.

However the chance that this happens have increased.
I think that Greece simply flipping the bird to IMF would proceed any such development though.

[Dinner]

May 12th for official default on international debt obligations. Assuming the Euro weenies actually have the balls to hold Greece accountable instead of just roll over and play door mat yet again.

[rah]

Assuming the Euro weenies actually have the balls to hold Greece accountable instead of just roll over and play door mat yet again.

I'll assume the no balls option.

[Dinner]

Probably true.

[rah]

What's the definition of insanity again.

[Bereta_Eder]

I'm conveinced that poly is a blessing cause seldom people dumber than eurocrats make such a strong appearance and indeed return my faith in mankind

No, it's july and the point is that for a grexit to be politically justified an honest settlement should at least have been tried and failed. That's July

[Dinner]

24th of this month is when Greece is supposed to not get it next bail out funds unless it finally comes up with a serious plan of cuts, asset sales, and tax increases to balance it's budget. It has refused to do this for the last decade and will likely continue to refuse to do this so if the ECB wants to retain the last shreds of its creditability. Without that money it won't be able to make its several billion in obligations over the next few weeks.

Without that money there is no chance they will make it to July.

[Dinner]

The last money was a bit over two months ago and was supposed to hold them over for three months so they could come up with a plan. They haven't and they won't come up with a real plan. They are out of cash now unless they can beg more.