We are in the midst of the 148th anniversary of Sherman's march to the sea.

[Kuciwalker]

I'm sympathetic to the point that it is simply not possible to prove Agent Orange's culpability in a statistically rigorous way (without engaging in very unethical medical experiments), but that only takes us so far.

[kentonio]

Some 2.8 million Americans served in the Vietnam theater of operations. Three-to-six percent of Vietnam veterans’ children are born with some kind of birth defect (Emory University School of Medicine reports a 3-4 percent birth-defect rate among the general population). An impressive body of scientific evidence points to increases in birth defects and developmental problems in the children of Vietnam veterans and others exposed to dioxin-like chemicals.

Agent Orange was a combination of two defoliants, 2,4,5-T and 2,4-D contaminated by dioxin (TCDD), a toxic byproduct of the chemical production process. More than 19 million gallons of herbicides were sprayed in Vietnam between 1962-71. More than 11.2 million gallons sprayed after 1965 were dioxin-contaminated Agent Orange. Agents Purple, Pink, and Green used before 1965 were even more highly contaminated with dioxin.

According to Barry Commoner and Thomas Webster in their 2003 book Dioxins and Health, “the current scientific evidence argues not only that dioxin is a potent carcinogen, but that the non-cancer health and environmental hazards of dioxin may be more serious than believed previously.” They report that dioxin appears to act like a persistent synthetic hormone that interferes with important physiological signaling systems that can lead to altered cell development, differentiation, and regulation. The most troubling consequence is the possibility of reproductive, developmental, and immunological effects at the levels of dioxin-like compounds present in the bodies of the average person.

http://www.vva.org/veteran/1207/agen...e_feature.html

I'm going to walk away now because I'm just internet researching this and Michael clearly has not only a terribly direct personal connection but also a huge amount of real knowledge on the subject. Seriously though Kuci, let this **** go, you're arguing from an awful position that does you no credit whatsoever.

[regexcellent]

He's arguing from a position of actually paying attention to evidence instead of blindly accepting accusations made after the fact by anti-war activists. You are falling victim to your sense of political correctness, which is a tool used by the left to prevent accurate discussion.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Can't say as I am up on the nuances and toxicological data associated with Agent orange compounds, but it does occur to me that part of the problem may not have been the pure compounds themselves but the likely low grade 'off spec' materials that companies were notroious for producing to fulfill govt contracts beyond even the dioxin suspect. Contaminants (again beyond the known dioxin traces), low purity material (read off spec and not reworked) might be as much the culprits for the carcinogenic responses as anything.

Were this the case no amount of toxicological study would be appliacable as the permutations of what trace reactants/contaminants becomes unmanageable very quickly.

[kentonio]

He's arguing from a position of actually paying attention to evidence instead of blindly accepting accusations made after the fact by anti-war activists. You are falling victim to your sense of political correctness, which is a tool used by the left to prevent accurate discussion.

Given that you just wrote off the centuries old system of jury trials on which all our justice systems are based, because your dad was on one one, means you should probably STFU now.

[Kuciwalker]

http://www.vva.org/veteran/1207/agen...e_feature.html

We previously established why that has no scientific credibility.

[Hauldren Collider]

Given that you just wrote off the centuries old system of jury trials on which all our justice systems are based, because your dad was on one one, means you should probably STFU now.

The jury system does suck. He's absolutely right. His dad being on a jury was just an illustration.

[Kuciwalker]

Here is the very simple Bayesian case against believing the charges laid against Agent Orange:

There is some chance that the controversy surrounding Agent Orange is a purely social phenomenon, with no basis in scientific evidence. We've seen such phenomena elsewhere - I alluded to one such earlier, the anti-vaccine movement. The notion that vaccines cause autism has been an ongoing controversy for nearly 15 years, but is complete bull****. It originated from a single (incorrectly interpreted) experiment published in 1998. Even if the experiment itself had been done correctly, one paper would generally be insufficient evidence for a conclusion like this, but it was seized upon by some (hysterical) elements of the public. They then generated a whole bunch of extra data that supposedly demonstrated the link.

Other examples: cell phones causing cancer, depleted uranium weapons doing various terrible things, fluoridation being a Communist mind-control plot. The public is well-disposed to believe this sort of thing, especially if the accused is scary-sounding.

Also consider the diversity of claims about Agent Orange. Agent Orange isn't just accused of being a carcinogen, it is also accused of causing all kinds of birth defects. There is not and probably cannot be any scientific evidence for that (it is just too hard to study, absent enormous effect sizes).

Finally, there are a bunch of vocal people who have a political interest in making the US look bad.

The conclusion from all of this is that even if Agent Orange had no harmful effects whatsoever, we would not be surprised to see the controversy that we do.

[Hauldren Collider]

The conclusion from all of this is that even if Agent Orange had no harmful effects whatsoever, we would not be surprised to see the controversy that we do.

The fact that it was used in an unpopular war and has a menacing-sounding name makes it even more likely to capture the public's imagination. Nobody ever talks about Agent Pink. Or Agent White.

What it seems like to me is that people believe Agent Orange is some sort of amalgam of asbestos, cigarettes and thalidomide.

[kentonio]

There is some chance that the controversy surrounding Agent Orange is a purely social phenomenon, with no basis in scientific evidence. We've seen such phenomena elsewhere - I alluded to one such earlier, the anti-vaccine movement. The notion that vaccines cause autism has been an ongoing controversy for nearly 15 years, but is complete bull****.

Call me when the US government and the people who make the vaccines feel the need to pay out billions of dollars in compensation.

[kentonio]

The jury system does suck. He's absolutely right. His dad being on a jury was just an illustration.

The right to being judged by your peers is one of the most critical protections we have you ****ing muppet. Do you understand what 'justice' was like before juries and the battles it took to guarantee our right to them?

[regexcellent]

Call me when the US government and the people who make the vaccines feel the need to pay out billions of dollars in compensation.

The US government doesn't spend money on the basis of science. It spends money on the basis of politics. Sometimes those intersect but usually they don't.

[Hauldren Collider]

Call me when the US government and the people who make the vaccines feel the need to pay out billions of dollars in compensation.

Are you suggesting that the US government gives out compensation for any reason OTHER than political considerations?

EDIT: Goddammit, reg

[regexcellent]

The right to being judged by your peers is one of the most critical protections we have you ****ing muppet. Do you understand what 'justice' was like before juries and the battles it took to guarantee our right to them?

I would feel much better being tried by a judge than by a jury, personally. Maybe back in the day when the jury actually knew the accused personally they were intelligent. Today they are just retarded.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Hell no. I would only feel better in the arena of technical matters when and if judged by competent individuals capable of understanidng the evidence placed before them. (Which is why arbitration often is the preferred route) A judge is often times merely a political appointee without many firing nuerons but replete with ambitions. The jury solution is only poor in that our general public is so woefully inadequate. Likewise the jury slection process designed to include the most woefully inadequate people possible to make up the jury.