Palin v Clinton for 2016

[Ben Kenobi]

The GOP cannot win with its current coalition. The GOP won the white vote by 20 points. It won the vote among married women. It won the vote even among the college-educated. That's not enough anymore. It's time to start digging into new voting groups.

Romney brought in fewer voters than McCain. Had Romney pulled in McCain's turnout, he would have won.

The coalition is just fine. We need a good general.

[Imran Siddiqui]

You know, I'm not sure what I dislike more. The fact that your presumptions are made without any thought at all or the fact that you are okay with these slurs.

You're a noob.

This is Alexander's Horse... like 90% of what he says is with tongue in cheek.

[DinoDoc]

And don't discount carrying NJ - a well-loved governor can carry a state regardless of their normal politics.

I would some of what you seem to be

PS I didn't quote Fox News.

[regexcellent]

Christie is pro gun control and pro abortion = no go. He doesn't have Romney's consummate skill at switching positions.

My money's on one of the many popular governors now in office in places like New Mexico, Virginia, etc.

BTW **** Cuomo.

[Guynemer]

Jesus tap dancing Christ.

The final polls closed, what, 16 hours ago? Can we have at least ONE ****ING DAY before we start talking about the next goddamned election?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Christie doesn't have Romney's baggage yet, as he hasn't been on the national scene long enough. Fairly or not, he has more of a reputation of being a very good governor; and he doesn't have the flip-flopper reputation (yet). I don't know if he would be willing to play the games and flip-flop enough for the republican base to vote for him, but I think a lot would support him. And don't discount carrying NJ - a well-loved governor can carry a state regardless of their normal politics.

I don't think there is any perception that his praise of Obama hurt in any real circles that matter. Fox News is irrelevant and that blog post was utterly shallow and meaningless as well.

Christie's issues may be social issues. He picked an openly gay man to the NJ Supreme Court (and is pro civil unions) and while he is anti-abortion, he doesn't want to "force it down other people's throats" (so pro-life, but governs pro-choice with restrictions). He's also pro-med marijuana. Christie also isn't that much of an idelogue on illegal immigration (saying once that being in this country without documentation isn't a crime, but rather a civil wrong).

[snoopy369]

Perhaps the Republican base can actually put their idiotic fixation on antediluvian social policies and nominate someone who would a) win and b) govern sensibly?

[regexcellent]

Jesus tap dancing Christ.

The final polls closed, what, 16 hours ago? Can we have at least ONE ****ING DAY before we start talking about the next goddamned election?

You already know the answer to that.

[DinoDoc]

Perhaps the Republican base can actually put their idiotic fixation on antediluvian social policies and nominate someone who would a) win and b) govern sensibly?

I remain unconvinced of a).

[snoopy369]

Christie would win against any democrat you could name. Fiscal conservative with moderate (ie, NORMAL) social stances. He'd win in the biggest landslide for an incoming president since... Reagan? He'd win the marginal states easily and even put some unusual states in play. If he'd run this year, and not drastically changed his positions, he'd probably have won 350 EVs.

Republicans have a popular, logical economic policy coupled with bug**** insane social policy. Take away the bug**** insane social policy and you have an economic platform that nearly everyone will get behind.

[snoopy369]

Also, Christie's stance on abortion - Pro-Life but not going to cram it down everyone's throat - is basically the only stance that is reasonable for a Republican male candidate to run on, IMO. Run on anything else and you've got a very good chance to lose like Romney did.

[regexcellent]

I think, being in Chicago, snoopy is underestimating the popularity of social conservatism nationwide. In the South and most of the Midwest, it is quite popular.

I think it's important to consider another long term trend here. The midwest has been shifting to the right. Democrats, in their quest to grab up all the minority votes, have ignored the largest component of the population. In a future era where places like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan are all likely pickups for the Republicans, the Democrats would have a much harder time getting to 270.

e: I should add Iowa to that list as well.

[DinoDoc]

If he'd run this year,

But he didn't run this year. The GOP tried desperately to recruit him. He rebuffed their advances. IMO his time in the sun is done unless something drastic happens.

Hell Powell would likely have won the Presidency had he ran when people were trying to draft him.

[snoopy369]

I think, being in Chicago, snoopy is underestimating the popularity of social conservatism nationwide. In the South and most of the Midwest, it is quite popular.

I think it's important to consider another long term trend here. The midwest has been shifting to the right. Democrats, in their quest to grab up all the minority votes, have ignored the largest component of the population. In a future era where places like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan are all likely pickups for the Republicans, the Democrats would have a much harder time getting to 270.

e: I should add Iowa to that list as well.

Social conservatism is popular in some areas, certainly. Not enough areas to win however. Chicago is not New York; it's in the middle of the midwest (and my wife's from rural Missouri, so I have a lot of experience with rural social conservatism). My point is that the country is heading the other way - even some of the formerly social conservative areas are becoming less so, as people realize that the policy of forcing your personal preferences on other people is rather, well, ANTI-AMERICAN. Even Texas will probably shift away from it in the next decade.

[regexcellent]

I don't agree that social conservatism is going by the wayside. It's a wedge issue, but it's not like support for abortion and so forth is inexorably increasing. In fact, if anything it is decreasing. I know a lot of young people who are very, very socially conservative. I am more socially conservative than my parents.

Social issues are firmly held beliefs on either side of the spectrum. It's clear that social conservatism did not turn off independents in this election.