Intrade: 70.5% chance Obama will win third debate

[Hauldren Collider]

Yeah. Iraq is not a friend of Iran. I don't think either of them will be ready to forgive the other for the Iran-Iraq war for a long time.

Iran desires a regional hegemony and Syria and Hezbollah are its biggest international power bases. Take out the Assad regime and the Iranians lose a lot of force projection in the middle east (ability to equip terrorist cells and so forth).

[snoopy369]

Iraq is not a friend of Syria. I don't think either of them will be ready to forgive the other for the Iran-Iraq war for a long time.

Wha? Who has said anything about Iraq <-> Syria ?

[Hauldren Collider]

Typo, sorry. Meant to say Iran.

[regexcellent]

Iran needs Syria because it can't guarantee that Egypt will allow its vessels to transit Suez. Also, it needs Syria to help support its proxy terrorist groups in the region like Hezbollah.

[MRT144]

Iran needs Syria because it can't guarantee that Egypt will allow its vessels to transit Suez. Also, it needs Syria to help support its proxy terrorist groups in the region like Hezbollah.

How does Syria guarantee that vessels will pass through the Suez?

[regexcellent]

It doesn't, but it has ports on the Mediterranean.

[MRT144]

It doesn't, but it has ports on the Mediterranean.

How do the goods get from Iran to Syria? Through Turkey or Iraq?

[regexcellent]

The borders in the Kurdish regions of Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Azerbaijan are notoriously porous, so I wouldn't be surprised of stuff goes through there. However my understanding is that a lot of weapons are transported by air to Syria and then handed over to Hezbollah rebels. At one point there were regular flights between Caracas, Damascus, and Tehran which were carrying Revolutionary Guard members and terrorists. Some American reporter found out and tried to book a flight on it and it was shut down.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/09/14/terror-flight-venezuela-iran-illicit-arms-hezbollah-hamas-protest/

[Lonestar]

Yeah, and what's that got to do with the point?

...Why'd you bring up supercrarriers? I thought you were trying to make an oblique reference to the CVF.

[Zevico]

Yeah. Iraq is not a friend of Iran. I don't think either of them will be ready to forgive the other for the Iran-Iraq war for a long time.

There are no countries who are "friends" in the Middle East at the moment. There are proxies, however. Iran is doing its best to project its power in Iraq and make a proxy of it.

Iran desires a regional hegemony and Syria and Hezbollah are its biggest international power bases. Take out the Assad regime and the Iranians lose a lot of force projection in the middle east (ability to equip terrorist cells and so forth).

Depends on what it's replaced with. Is an ongoing Syrian civil war spilling into Lebanon better or worse for Western interests than Iranian domination? How about a Syrian Muslim Brotherhood?

[Lonestar]

I decided to fact check those figures btw, as it had the feeling of a right wing talking point. As I suspected it turns out that in terms of actual surface warships, the US navy actually had more in 2011 (122) than it did in '99 (106).

http://www.history.navy.mil/branches/org9-4.htm

What's great is that you ignored the footnote and that said that starting in 2001 the USN stopped counting Sealift ships, that is, ships run by professional mariners, as warships.

To clarify the ship numbers included in this table, the year 2000 entries include active commissioned ships, those in the Naval Reserve Force (NRF) and ships operated by the Military Sealift Command (MSC).

Obama, by the way, changed it back and started counting these ships as "Combat Logistics Force", which artificially increases the end-strength numbers.

Just to recap, your closest rival China spends $143b a year on defense. America spends $711b.

Just to recap for the subject at hand:

The total USN shipbuilding budget is $12bil. The biggest expense in the DoD budget is personnel costs, not systems procurement. And if you think China can't scrape up $12b a year(or already has) and get a better return due to the personnel costs of the yardworkers alone....then I don't know what to tell you.

Hell, not even the West Europeans have the kind of lavish benefits that the US DoD throws at it's personnel. Personnel costs for the US soak up a staggering amount of the DoD Budget. Even more when you include the VA, which was separated by Reagan from the DoD in order to make the defense costs look smaller then what it was.

[Hauldren Collider]

I thought VA was separated by Bush Sr, not Reagan?

Also I don't understand how our budget can only be 12 billion when we're on track to build 10 new aircraft carriers in what, 20 years AND we're building two Virginia subs every year, both of which are around 2 billion a pop?

[regexcellent]

All I know about the VA is that it is possibly the worst-run agency in the entire government.

Also I don't understand how our budget can only be 12 billion when we're on track to build 10 new aircraft carriers in what, 20 years AND we're building two Virginia subs every year, both of which are around 2 billion a pop?

It's something like 1 carrier every 5 years, 1 sub every year, 1 or 2 destroyers every year, 2 LCSes every year. Then the Zumwalts. I feel dirty even counting the LCSes given what pieces of **** they are by every account I can find.

edit: Oh yeah and there's the new LHDs. Probably one of those every 2-3 years or something?

[Lonestar]

I thought VA was separated by Bush Sr, not Reagan?

No, you're right, sorry. I thought "80s" and my brain went "Reagan".

Also I don't understand how our budget can only be 12 billion when we're on track to build 10 new aircraft carriers in what, 20 years AND

We are not going to be building 10 CVNs in the next 20 years, and it's questionable that we'll be building a total of 10 CVNs and LHAs in the next 20 years. It's a unfunded mandate.

Just like SSBN-X

we're building two Virginia subs every year, both of which are around 2 billion a pop?

So, a new CVN comes in at around $7bil

Plus a new LHA ($3bil)

We're already at $10bil. Without a sub or DDG or CLF ship or LCS or other amphibs.

So the USN spreads the per unit costs in penny-packets across several fiscal years. This has the effect of an immediate cost savings even if it causes an overall increase in per-unit cost. The assumption being(probably correct) that no one in congress would be willing cancel a warship already under construction.


A side effect of this, by the way, is that we only had one major surface combatant commissioned last year(not even a LCS). One Burke. Guess how many major surface combatants the Chinese commissioned? You think a modern Chinese destroyer is the same kind of ****box produced even in the 90s?

[regexcellent]

Lonestar, what's your opinion of the LCS? Everything I've heard is that it's an unarmored piece of crap, with inadequate armament.