CanPol: *****-umen Showdown

[Fake Boris]

Please explain what you see as "risks" that you mentioned earlier.

The case for independence is a slam dunk.

The risks are mainly political, like Canada imposing stuff by force.

The only significant threat is a downrating of our debt, which could easily be taken care of by avoiding deficits until the situation is stabilized. This, or buying back some of it with our sovereign fund.

[Hauldren Collider]

Good luck avoiding deficits with your massive state interventions...

[Fake Boris]

Good luck avoiding deficits with your massive state interventions...

Bull****... there's little correlation with a balanced budget and state intervention, as long as the government is raising appropriate revenue.

[giblets]

The case for independence is a slam dunk.

The risks are mainly political, like Canada imposing stuff by force.

The only significant threat is a downrating of our debt, which could easily be taken care of by avoiding deficits until the situation is stabilized. This, or buying back some of it with our sovereign fund.

How is it a slam dunk? Quebec is a recipient of equalization payments, right? What exactly would Quebec gain through independence that would be worth giving that up?

[Wezil]

The risks are mainly political, like Canada imposing stuff by force.

Such as?

[Ben Kenobi]

Such as insisting that the federalists in Montreal stay in Canada

[Flubber]

OK, so that's the first point.

Quebec does pay taxes to the federal government. Looks like everyone is implying military occupation + seizing of Quebec's assets or whatever crazy **** like this.

I didn't see anyone implying anything of the sort.

Are you denying that

1. Quebec is and has been a net recipient of equalization?
2. Quebec has lost a lot of Industry head offices over the years?
3. Quebec has a lot of federal assets within its borders?
4. In any independence move, quebecs borders are up for negotiation?
5. Quebec will have a serious issue with natives as at first blush, it appears most would prefer Canada to Quebec

[Flubber]

The risks are mainly political, like Canada imposing stuff by force.

.

What stuff?

1taking a share of the federal debt?

2 requiring payment for federal assets which Quebec would take over?
3 requiring Quebec to take on the obligations for federal employees?

Etc etc

I see no choice but uncertainty and upheaval which would hurt the Quebec economy

[Wezil]

I hope he answers. I'm not a potential Quebec voter thus he has no reason to be vague with me.

[Flubber]

The only significant threat is a downrating of our debt, which could easily be taken care of by avoiding deficits until the situation is stabilized. This, or buying back some of it with our sovereign fund.

Let's see here... Quebec has debt and is currently Running deficits despite 13-15 billion a year in federal transfers.

So the mission is to transition all that to Quebec revenues while disrupting and replacing all federal services and you hope to avoid deficets until the situation is stabilized ???" fantasy land !!!

[Fake Boris]

I didn't see anyone implying anything of the sort.

Are you denying that

1. Quebec is and has been a net recipient of equalization?

No, but it doesn't matter. A lot of money can be saved by merging departments, where much larger allocations get to be distributed by marginally more bureaucrats.
Examples: Provincial police + RCMP. Health transfers. Revenue agency. Heck, if Quebec withdrew from the federation, it could cover its current deficit AND equalization just by withdrawing from the F35 program.

2. Quebec has lost a lot of Industry head offices over the years?

And yet the GDP growth per capita in Quebec is comparable to say, Ontario. Businesses that have invested in Quebec since 1980 have obviously weighted the risks before getting in. Those that had to leave, already have for the most part.

3. Quebec has a lot of federal assets within its borders?

Which normally should be transferred to Quebec relative to its % of Canadian assets.

4. In any independence move, quebecs borders are up for negotiation?

Not really, unless you are talking about a military seizure. Canada could do it; there's nothing stopping it from that, and little in the form of resistance that Quebec could come up with. And clearly, this would hurt Quebec more than Canada, but in the end, Canada would pay a price for a civil war, too. CAD uncertainty, rising interest rates, a pissing contest of asset freezing, damaged international image, etc.
Anyone with business to do in this country understands this to be a less than optimal outcome. If that's really what you want, bring it on.

5. Quebec will have a serious issue with natives as at first blush, it appears most would prefer Canada to Quebec

Yes, but nothing IMO that can't be negociated. Separatist natives exist, this wouldn't be a case of massive and unequivocal native mobilization against separation.

Let's see here... Quebec has debt and is currently Running deficits despite 13-15 billion a year in federal transfers.

So the mission is to transition all that to Quebec revenues while disrupting and replacing all federal services and you hope to avoid deficets until the situation is stabilized ???" fantasy land !!!

If you want the correct picture, just calculate NET cashflows between taxpayers in Quebec and the federal government - that would get you to $2-4b/year.

[Ben Kenobi]

Not really, unless you are talking about a military seizure. Canada could do it; there's nothing stopping it from that, and little in the form of resistance that Quebec could come up with. And clearly, this would hurt Quebec more than Canada, but in the end, Canada would pay a price for a civil war, too. CAD uncertainty, rising interest rates, a pissing contest of asset freezing, damaged international image, etc.

If Canada is divisible than so is Quebec.

Are you willing to fight the federalists?

[Fake Boris]

Ben, let it be known that I will not argue with you.

[Wezil]

PQ minority elected last night.

Liberals are almost extinct in Canada these days.

[Fake Boris]

Perhaps, but 50 of 125 seats after 9 years in power is an honorable defeat.