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Azerbaijan allegedly gives Israel access to airbases
If Israeli jets struck Iran from Azerbaijan you don't think the Iranians wouldn't hit Azerbaijan back, or even invade? That would certainly involve the Russians, who might be happy for an excuse to bring Azerbaijan back into the old fold. Come to think of it, could Azerbaijan make a deal with the Israelis without Moscow approval?
I don't know. That's an interesting thought. If this is all true (and I don't see a strong reason to believe otherwise, certainly not the Azeri denial), then Azerbaijan has clearly made the calculation that the risk of a nuclear Iran is worth the ensuing geopolitical fallout.
And yes Israel has planes capable of dropping bunker busters.
If they are crazy enough to do that then it is even more important not to trust them with nuclear capability.
Why risk it right now? My preferred course of action is to use the carrot & the stick on both Iran and Israel. Let sanctions and negotiations continue, if Iran doesn't respond how we like sell/give Israel bunker busters as a way to make the Iranian regime more worried. Don't let Israeli hawks push things to war before we want though and if hawks in Israel get to out of hand lean on Azerbijian to get them to deny the airfield to Israel, we can make it worth their while to listen to us, and hold off on selling them deep penetrators until we feel it is in our interests to do so (I.E. maybe in another year after we've given sanctions and negotiations a chance).
That's a logical step by step process instead of jumping straight to a larger war for no good reason.
Interesting thought on the nuclear bunker busters.
The main concern I have with the leak from the US perspective is that it will encourage the Israelis never to tell us anything again, or any of our allies for that matter. It's a huge betrayal against an ally, and when you betray an ally as close as Israel, it makes everyone else nervous.
Plus, it could have serious repercussions for Azerbaijan, which we don't want.
The hard unavoidable truth is Israel absolutely without question NEEDS the US, it can't survive long term without US support in the UN and with aid. They're not going to "cut" the US off because that would be biting the hand which feeds them and protects them. They may not like it but they're going to have to police their own hot heads and fall in line on this issue. That doesn't mean we might let them off the leash at some future date but first they're going to need us to sell them deep penetrators and to at least not work to block their access to airfields in 3rd party countries. We control the cards here, not them, and no it's not in our interests to let them wag the dog at this moment.
I would respond about the polls (you're off the mark by about a decimal order of magnitude) however I don't want to turn this into an election thread.
In response to Oerdin, Israel may need the United States but there are two things to take home from this:
1) Israel likely no longer believes it can trust this administration
2) Israel knows that the US Congress is and for the foreseeable future always will be staunchly and bipartisanly pro-Israel.
We hold a lot of the cards collectively but Barack Obama does not courtesy this being a democracy.
Also I would like to point out, to reassure kentonio, that I do not believe being opposed to an Israeli strike on Iran makes anyone anti-Israel, or for that matter anti-Semitic, though there are people who hold that view because they are anti-Israel or anti-Semitic.
That's not trying to keep us out of another war; that's deliberately kicking our allies in the balls. It's a surefire way to find yourself alone and without friends.
Kicking Israel in the balls
Being alone and without Israel
Also I would like to point out, to reassure kentonio, that I do not believe being opposed to an Israeli strike on Iran makes anyone anti-Israel, or for that matter anti-Semitic, though there are people who hold that view because they are anti-Israel or anti-Semitic.
I stressed the point, because as a longtime Israel supporter and certainly not a pacifist, if I thought an Israeli strike could be a replay of Osirak I'd be cheering them on. Its not however, any strike now could be truly disasterous and lead to some terrible consequences. Iran is a complex country and we attack there at our peril.
He joined before your inexplicable name change. Maybe I'll change my name to something that makes no sense and then ask regexcellent why he calls me by something else.
The US acting in an unally-like manner with the always faithful and trustworthy Israel? The gall of it all!
“As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
"Capitalism ho!"
I am most definately pro Israel and also against an Israeli attack. The benefit simply does not justify the cost. War with Iran, while definately winnable with U.S. help, would be a very difficult and destructive proposition. Iran has been doing everything in its power to prepare for a U.S. attach since 1980. Any strike without regime change will make matters worse rather than better. Regime change seems to be off the table in every discussion I have seen. As much as I hate to agree with Obama, his strategy with Iran is the only one unless we want to commit a couple of trillion dollars to bringanother full scale war to the Mideast...and this one would be a much bigger war.
"I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003
Iran can't close the Strait of Hormuz. If it tried it would have to be prepared to lose its entire navy. Also it would lose all its oil revenue and its economy would free fall.
They only need to get 1 mammoth tanker seriously burning and de facto no one can/dares to pass anymore for what... a month or 2 ?
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