Azerbaijan allegedly gives Israel access to airbases

[Aeson]

Israel attacking Iran would not drag us into a war, it might drag Israel into a war (honestly, that's pretty unlikely itself), but we could stay out of it.

We would be forced in.

[Dinner]

What Israel NEEDS to do is avoid getting nuked by a bunch of crazy Iranians, and Obama's doing what he can to throw a wrench into that.

They don't have a bomb, they won't be getting one any time soon, and even if they did (which they won't) the deterrent of the US, Israeli, UK, and French nuclear arsonals would be effective. They're not suicidal and they know what would happen if they do. Obama has done a hell of a job getting even Russia and China to sign on to sanction and pushing for international consensus. A one of strike won't do anything militarily and will only undermine the real international effort. We need to avoid letting the tail wag the dog and let the bigger international effort have a chance to take effect.

[regexcellent]

Aeson: I actually doubt that rather strongly. Any interference we would be required to provide would not be hugely significant, and worth it to stop Iran from getting nukes in my honest opinion.

Meanwhile, Turkey continues to publicly deny the fiction that it is our ally.

[OzzyKP]

Then you are in a fairly small minority of Americans.

I'm used to that.

[Dinner]

We would be forced in.

Iran has already said they'd try to shut down the straights of Hormuz if such a strike did happen so, yeah, we'd be pulled in to a much larger war then we want so we need Israel to keep its hotheads in check while we go about building international consensus which unlike a one of strike might actually work.

[regexcellent]

If Obama is willing to pre-emptively skewer Israel's contingency plans then surely he is able to deny an Israeli call for aid.

That said, a war in which he provides assistance to Israel would probably dramatically boost his poll numbers...

[Dinner]

Aeson: I actually doubt that rather strongly. Any interference we would be required to provide would not be hugely significant, and worth it to stop Iran from getting nukes in my honest opinion.

Meanwhile, Turkey continues to publicly deny the fiction that it is our ally.

Even many Israeli politicians have publicly said a quick air strike wouldn't set the Iranians back more then a few months, that right now Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program, and that there is no immediate danger plus any such strike would only strengthen the domestic support of the regime. So, no, it won't stop them from doing jack cheese but it likely would make the situation worse.

[regexcellent]

Iran has a nuclear weapons program and you'd have to be willfully ignorant not to see it. Why the hell else are they building triggering devices for nuclear weapons or enriching above 20%?

Previous comments about strikes only setting them back a little ways was working under the assumption of no bunker busters or nearby airbases. Moreover, one would reasonably suspect an Israeli disinformation campaign to set the Iranians at ease.

[Aeson]

If Obama is willing to pre-emptively skewer Israel's contingency plans then surely he is able to deny an Israeli call for aid.

Letting a piece of information slip is several orders of magnitude easier than convincing a nation to not support an Israel at war against Iran, while dealing with the problems Iran would cause in Iraq, and when Iran turns off the Gulf oil supply...

[regexcellent]

Iran can't close the Strait of Hormuz. If it tried it would have to be prepared to lose its entire navy. Also it would lose all its oil revenue and its economy would free fall.

[Aeson]

Iran can't close the Strait of Hormuz. If it tried it would have to be prepared to lose its entire navy.

a) that's war
b) it's narrow enough we'd have to clear the coast too.

[regexcellent]

That's actually easier than you probably think. Counter-battery fire is something we're pretty good at. And once again, the if the Iranians did that their economy would collapse.

[regexcellent]

Think about it like this: Iran's exports are pretty much entirely driven by crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. It's simply not possible to allow only Iranian tankers through and not others. Even if they could do that, either we'd stop the tankers or other Gulf states would. Thus any and all Iranian imports are dependent on this strait being open. That includes all refined petroleum goods, food, medicine, and consumer goods. It would be a nightmare. They can't afford it.

[Dinner]

Iran can't close the Strait of Hormuz. If it tried it would have to be prepared to lose its entire navy. Also it would lose all its oil revenue and its economy would free fall.

They can mine the **** out of the straights faster than we could clear it. Yes, they can disrupt the oil supply and we haven't even gotten to speed boats with anti-ship missiles or their air force which they used to sink tankers during the Iran-Iraq war. Yeah, with enough effort we can break those military capabilities but you'd better bet that until that happens there WILL be a disruption of the oil supply.

I see no reason to escalate everything to that point right now especially since we've spent so much effort building an international concensus and getting sanctions put into place. We're putting the screws to them right now, that's undermining their domestic support, and it does give them incentives to come back to the negotiating table. All of those incentives disappear the second Israel drops a few bombs and goes home. That will just stir the pot and make things worse.

[Aeson]

That's actually easier than you probably think. Counter-battery fire is something we're pretty good at. And once again, the if the Iranians did that their economy would collapse.

Yes, we would win. No it wouldn't be easy at all. We'd be fighting a 3 front war where the opponent picks the timing. Which is colossally stupid. Especially given that eventually Iran would get nukes in such a "holding" scenario. You don't want to initiate a war, back them into a corner, then wait for them to get nukes.

We would have to invade and occupy. It's not worth it.