Republicans don't want to win the presidency

[Hauldren Collider]

Huntsman

I actually prefer him over Romney. Although I have to say, he doesn't run a very good campaign. He ought to be doing much better. I think it probably has to do with him starting late and the fact that Romney basically never stopped campaigning after 2008.

[DaShi]

At least both Obama and Romney can look forward to being lame-duck presidents, should either win.

[DaShi]

Huntsman 2012

If only.

[DaShi]

Huntsman

I actually prefer him over Romney. Although I have to say, he doesn't run a very good campaign. He ought to be doing much better. I think it probably has to do with him starting late and the fact that Romney basically never stopped campaigning after 2008.

You didn't even know who he was two months ago.

[Guynemer]

One would think he's angling for the VP spot, but there is no way Romney picks him; maybe he's betting on Obama winning next year, and positioning himself for a serious go of it in 2016.

[DaShi]

He's playing a pretty good Biden though.

[Tupac Shakur]

Perry already has the Biden role on lockdown.

[Boris Godunov]

This is ridiculous. Die-hard conservatives hate Obama and will vote for Romney because there's no other choice.

Didn't work for McCain. Die-hards hated Obama just as much then, and they were not at all enthusiastic for McCain. We know how that worked out.

Meanwhile, independents will be flocking to Romney because Obama is a ****ty president presiding over a ****ty economy and Romney is exactly the sort of squishy moderate that appeals to independents.

Considering they haven't flocked to him already in the polls, despite Obama having the lowest approval ratings of his term, I doubt that will happen as dramatically as you suggest. So far he's splitting independents fairly evenly, and if he keeps that up, he'll win.

Obama and his campaign know that Romney is their biggest threat, which is why they're already running ads against him.

Or they know he's the most likely nominee and they're getting a head start on defining him. I sincerely doubt they would think their ads would have any effect in the GOP Primary (if anything, they might improve Romney's chances with the base).

[Boris Godunov]

He has the Al Gore flaw: he comes across as desperate to become President above all else.

This will be a two Gore election if Romney ends up being the Republican nominee.

Nonsense. There are plenty of legitimate criticisms of Obama, but the awkward I-want-to-be-President-so-bad desperation isn't one of them. One of his hallmarks in the 2008 campaign was being a cool cat.

[Tupac Shakur]

Didn't work for McCain. Die-hards hated Obama just as much then, and they were not at all enthusiastic for McCain. We know how that worked out.

The situations are completely different. Die-hards did not hate Obama just as much in 2008; he was a virtual unknown and hadn't yet passed any of the legislation that has made the right-wing despise him. Clinton was more hated, in my recollection, because she actually had a record that the wingnuts disapproved of.

Obama in 2008 also had the benefit of running against the party that was presiding over a terrible economy. He'll be on the other side of that issue in 2012.

Considering they haven't flocked to him already in the polls, despite Obama having the lowest approval ratings of his term, I doubt that will happen as dramatically as you suggest. So far he's splitting independents fairly evenly, and if he keeps that up, he'll win.

Polls don't mean anything this far out.

Nonsense. There are plenty of legitimate criticisms of Obama, but the awkward I-want-to-be-President-so-bad desperation isn't one of them. One of his hallmarks in the 2008 campaign was being a cool cat.

You're ignoring all the flop sweat he's been spilling over the last couple years.

[Berzerker]

I've never been more embarrassed to be a Republican. And after 8 years of Bush, that's really saying something.

I was gonna say, what took you so long

unfortunately Gary Johnson aint even in the running and neither is Huntsman, I could vote for them

or Paul

[Tupac Shakur]

Obama could win big next year if the economy improves () or lose even bigger if the Eurozone drags us into a double-dip ().

Europe may be slipping into a “deep and prolonged recession” as high levels of government debt, financial market turmoil and political paralysis stoke a dangerous downward cycle, the European Commission said Thursday.

Growth has already stagnated across the region, a major economic zone that includes the 17 countries that use the euro as well as others, such as Britain, that don’t.

The commission slashed its 2012 growth forecast for the region to a mere 0.6 percent but said there was a high probability that growth could slow even further.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/europe-heading-toward-recession-european-commission-says/2011/11/10/gIQAHiLy9M_story.html

[The Mad Monk]

I usually laugh at the very concept of this, but...

If Romney is the nominee, what are the odds that a far-right wingnut--take your pick of the also-rans littering the stage yesterday--launches an independant campaign and siphons votes from Mitt?

Zero. The right learned the lessons of Perot and Nader, even if the Left never will.

[Boris Godunov]

The situations are completely different. Die-hards did not hate Obama just as much in 2008; he was a virtual unknown and hadn't yet passed any of the legislation that has made the right-wing despise him. Clinton was more hated, in my recollection, because she actually had a record that the wingnuts disapproved of.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html

While that's from June 3rd of 2008, it's the closest I was able to find. Clinton clearly held a huge advantage over McCain compared to Obama.

Obama in 2008 also had the benefit of running against the party that was presiding over a terrible economy. He'll be on the other side of that issue in 2012.

Sure, but that's an entirely separate issue than that of Romney being able to get big turn out from conservatives, which was the point at hand. Ideologues aren't swayed by economic indicators.

Polls don't mean anything this far out.

They sure do to Nate Silver in his analysis you provided, didn't they?

You're ignoring all the flop sweat he's been spilling over the last couple years.

I'm not even sure what that means, but there's a big difference between an incumbent president being nervous over his vulnerableness versus an aspiring candidate who is awkwardly desperate to win the job. People tend to view an incumbent president with more gravitas by default, which is part of the reason why it's generally difficult to unseat them. At any rate, I haven't seen Obama as being visibly awkward or "Goresque" lately, in spite of his poll numbers.

[Hauldren Collider]

Boris, do you really think republicans won't show up to vote against Obama simply because they're not enthralled with Romney?